2012 Maximum Area PoolEDIT Neven: There's a poll in the right hand bar running until February 8th for predicting the Cryosphere Today maximum sea ice area number. See details below. Don't be afraid to share your prediction in the comments. :-)
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Post by guest author crandles:
Two weeks ago the Integrated Climate Data Center from the KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg - which enables easy access to climate relevant observational data from in-situ measurements and satellite remote sensing - announced that they had derived 8-day composites of Arctic Ocean melt pond cover fraction on sea ice for May-September 2000-2011 based on MODIS data.
To quote the ICDC: "The melt pond cover fraction on Arctic Sea Ice is of particular importance for the process of every years' summer melt of the Arctic sea ice cover."
I've looked at the images from the database of the CliSAP/KlimaCampus Product (unfortunately not as nice-looking as the image above I copied from the ICDC melt pond page) and compared the melting seasons since 2007 at three different dates, based on the CAPIE graph:
Via ClimateProgress from the WWF Climate Blog, this piece by Nick Sundt:
Arctic Temperatures Continue Rapid Rise as 2011 Breaks Record Set in 2010
NASA yesterday (19 January 2012) released data showing that last year temperatures in the Arctic rose beyond the record established in 2010 -- setting a new record for 2011. News of the record Arctic temperatures follows a series of alarming developments related to the Arctic in recent months.
Above: The surface temperature anomaly for the region extending from 64oN to 90oN, from 1880 through 2011, in degrees Centigrade above or below the temperature during the 1951-1980 base period. The figures shows that temperatures have risen substantially since 1880 and that the rate of increase has been especially rapid since the late 1970s. Source: WWF, using data from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies, Zonal annual means.
According to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the annual mean surface temperature (land and air) for the region north of 64oN (the Arctic Circle is at 66° 33'N) in 2011 was 2.28oC above that which characterized the 1951-1980 period. Temperatures in the region have been rising rapidly since the late 1970s and have not dropped below the long term mean since 1992 -- nearly 20 years. This year's annual mean temperature broke the record that was just set in 2010, when the temperature was 2.11oC above 1951-1980 levels.
Continue reading here...
And as a bonus a cool video from NASA showing how that fresh water from Russian rivers got to the Beaufort Sea:
I keep coming back to the Cryosphere Today global sea ice area anomaly graph, as it keeps on delivering records and/or trivial tidbits.
We had to wait a relatively long time for the anomaly trend to go above zero, but Arctic SIA as well as Antarctic SIA are currently both higher than for instance last year, so here it is:
This was the longest period on record of a negative global SIA anomaly. According to my calculations based on the CT SIA data the previous longest period lasted 444 days and ended just before the end of 2007. Another period of 333 days took place from mid-2009 to mid-2010, not much later followed by this new record period of 502 days. As the period ended at the beginning of this year we also just witnessed the first full calendar year on record without a positive anomaly.
In the coming few weeks the global sea ice area minimum will be hit. I don't expect a new record.
Welcome to 2012! It's a leap year, so I predict some confusion with yearly comparisons by date after March 1st. About a month later the melting seasons starts again. Time flies almost as fast as summer ice disappears!
The NSIDC has a new monthly summary out for December. The part I found most interesting:
The past two Arctic winters were dominated by a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a large-scale weather pattern that brings generally warm conditions to the Arctic and colder conditions to Europe and North America. In contrast, the winter of 2011 has so far seen a mostly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While temperatures were above normal in the Kara and Barents seas, the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation tends to keep the coldest winter air locked up in the Arctic, which keeps the middle latitudes free of frigid Arctic temperatures and strong snowstorms. This weather pattern helps to explain the low snow cover and warm conditions over much of the United States and Eastern Europe so far this winter.
Several studies have shown that during the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, thick ice tends to move out of the Arctic through Fram Strait, leaving the Arctic with thinner ice that melts out more easily in summer. Scientists will be watching closely for this connection if the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation continues through the winter.
Some scientists have speculated that the negative Arctic Oscillation pattern of the last two winters was in part driven by low sea ice extent. The recurrence of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation so far this winter, following a near-record low summer sea ice extent, does not support this thinking.
This for me was the no 1 subject of interest for this winter. If we don't see any Snowmaggedons or Snowmygawds or whatever Hollywoodesque name is assigned to blizzards by the US mainstream hysteria in the next three months, there will be a sigh of relief in Neven's house.
2011 is coming to an end, which means we're halfway through the Arctic winter. The sea ice is thickening up nicely everywhere in the Arctic interior, but things aren't progressing as uniformly at the edges. Just like last year we see an above average ice cover in some regions, but a very slow freeze-up in other regions.
A good example of the former is Hudson Bay. It was extremely late in freezing over last year, and thus melted very fast in Spring. This year, however, its ice cover is almost average for the time of year according to the Cryosphere Today regional SIA graph:
The Bering Sea region is above average and will hit its maximum SIA fairly easily in the coming weeks:
I vowed not to talk about this because it literally makes me sick to my stomach, but it's too important to deny. We all know about the vast deposits of methane clathrates on the Siberian continental shelf. They are kept in place by pressure and low temperatures. However, the temperatures (SAT as well as SST) are getting less and less low in the Arctic, so in theory it could mean that these deposits come loose and leave the ocean floor to end up in the atmosphere. Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 and some extinction events in the distant past have been linked to the deadly feedback of warming->methane release->more warming->more methane release->etc.
No one is really sure what is going on exactly with those methane deposits, but in the past years there has been much speculation (undoubtedly caused by the spectacular retreat of summer sea ice in the region) and reporting of a probable increase of methane bubbling up from the Siberian continental shelf. And so the results of this year's Russian research mission were eagerly awaited. Mind you, not by me.
It seems the results are in and were reported at AGU last week.
The Independent reports with this article:
Shock as retreat of Arctic sea ice releases deadly greenhouse gas
Russian research team astonished after finding 'fountains' of methane bubbling to surface
Continue reading "Arctic methane: Russian researchers report" »
It doesn't look like the area maximum will be under 13 million km^2 based on past 10 years all increasing by at least 0.6m km^2 and sometimes over 1m km^2 from this time of year. We are currently at 12.414m km^2.
Also, you could argue that the recent trend has been unusually in that amount is less now than 15 days so perhaps a spike upwards is imminent.
On the other hand, area is high outside Bering strait and by Baffin Bay so maybe these won't increase area much further. Where the area is low, Barents and Kara seas, the water is warm and set to stay that way at least this week with strong winds blowing from Atlantic. Then maybe the sun is getting high enough for Southern Barents to receive more solar energy than usual because of low ice and therefore albedo.
This might suggest the increase in area could continue to be slow a little longer.
Or you might completely disagree with above assessment.
So how about a pool of guesses on the area maximumper Cryosphere today? Not much time left so I suggest guesses should be submitted before end of January.
Neven commented:
On the other hand: that huge high over Northern Siberia means clear skies and thus a lot of radiation escaping to space.
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EDIT Neven:
To add to the fun I have opened a poll and added it to the right hand bar. You can vote on what you think the SIA maximum will be until February 8th.
Here are the Cryosphere Today SIA maximums in the period 2005-2011 with the date of maximum (from this daily updated data file):