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dorlomin

Too carry on the snooker analogy we are now entering the crucible of the melt season.

dorlomin

Oh and on the subject of sports, I believe New Zealand had a football match the other day....

Patrick Lockerby

The pseudo-skeptics are saying the ice will screw back, but that's just top spin: a few more century breaks right on cue and the pseudo-skeptics will be well and truly snookered.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bH7YelA86Q

:-)

Kevin McKinney

Looks like IJIS just missed another century break for 6/20--about 300 km2 short, unless there's a downward adjustment this morning.

dorlomin

Cryosphere today dropped from an anomaly of -1.225 to -1.425 They dont have the new graphic up yet but that is pretty rapid melting so far. Not convinced we will beat 2007 but it is on the cards.

dorlomin

Oooops too quick, they have revised it to -1.395

Neven

Patrick, that snookered-analogy is brilliant!

Thanks for mentioning the CT-update, dorlomin. I'll use that graph for today's SIE update.

dorlomin

The cryosphere today map is up for the 20/06
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

It is alarming. I really hope it is just a glitch in the processing or picking up melt pools on the ice as sea water, because it looks like alot of ice is starting to melt quickly. Hopefully a more knowledgeable person will be along to explain why I am mis-interpretating the image.

Neven

Yes, I have noticed it too, whilst looking for other maps to show in today's update. Do you notice that patch of blue in the Beaufort Sea? That's a first this season.

However, if you run the 30 day animation you see these large swathes of yellow, orange and green show up but then get swallowed again by the purple and pink. Something to keep an eye on the coming days.

IJIS revised today's number by 13K, still a very decent melt.

Lord Soth

The Cryosphere Today results are very susceptable to Melt Ponds on the ice. Take a look at the ice bridge in McClure Strait, or at the Laptev sea (near shore) in MODIS. Mostly bare turquoise ice with melt pools, but still consolidated. Cryosphere Today shows the area will only 50% ice cover.

However it is a mute point, because ice with little snow cover and with melt ponds, will soon be history. This make Cryosphere Today, a more predictive tool of things to come.

Another note of interest. If you take a look at MODIS from yesterday (June 20) and use the 1-3-5 color banding, you will see a thin streamer of clouds, going from Greenland all the way around to Alaska. An interesting weather pattern.

Neven

Here's another great tool for monitoring clouds over at the Environment Canada's Weather Office (hat-tip Wayne Davidson).

I'm not sure which picture is the best, but if you scroll down to HRPT (NOAA polar orbiting) and then click the medium pictures for Visible or 3┬Ám (which according to Wayne are best) you can even play movies to see the clouds swirling.

I'm such a meteorological noob, otherwise I'd be writing great posts about how all of it works (clouds, Arctic Dipole Pattern). Alas, I'm no Jeff Masters.

Gareth

Re: dorlomin @ #2: One-all, one-all, one-all, one-all (to the tune of God Defend New Zealand). Should have been 1-0, too, if hadn't been for an outrageous diva dive in the penalty box...

Couple of things you've missed Neven. I put these two items up in my Twitter stream @hottopicnz yesterday:

Wired Science on Arctic ice forecasts (due out this week): one group predicts summer min of 1m km2! http://bit.ly/bue8Gy

RT @ICESCAPE2010 Take a look as we sail through the Bering Strait & start ocean sampling from the icebreaker Healy http://go.usa.gov/36i

Neven

Thanks, Gareth!

Nick Barnes

My Python script disagrees with some of your results. For instance, here are the maximum breaks in each year:
2002-07-27 142,500
2003-07-14 141,406
2004-04-11 154,218
2005-07-05 161,719
2006-07-05 191,094
2007-07-03 201,875
2008-08-06 145,000
2009-07-22 168,437
2010-06-05 142,344
Also possibly I'm misunderstanding the "Century breaks so far" heading; can you clarify it?

Neven

Nick, you are absolutely right! I overlooked the higher 2006 century break and it looks like I made a mistake when copying the new smoothed data between May 20th and June 11th (due to 2008 being a leap year). Thanks a lot for bringing this to my attention. At least my code is easier to clear than GISS's code, right? ;-)

And the 'century breaks so far' is poorly phrased, yes. With it I mean 'century breaks so far in the season', up to the date the blog post was written. Is that a better description?

Gas Glo

The average daily melt over last 2 week has gone over 70k though afternoon figure may revise to below that. Figures for 2009 56752, 2008 50424, 2007 60346, 2006 65100.

Are century breaks a bit too volatile? Wouldn't average daily rate over x days smooth things out a little and make a more reliable data set? If so, what is the optimum x?


Using 14 day average, 2006 and 2010 had higher melt rates in early May. For 2010 it seems reasonable to attribute this to unusually high extent in April. Leaving 2006 as just unusual?

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