A Farewell to Ar... ctic Sea Ice Blog

Well, not a final farewell. There's a good chance the blog will wake from hibernation when next year's melting season starts. In the meantime there will be one or several open threads for discussing the slow winter action (yes, even slower than summer action, or is it?), perhaps an update here and there when something interesting happens, like CryoSat-2 data becoming available. I might even upgrade to a paid version of TypePad, so I can add more functionality, widgets, guest authors, etc. Not too much, as I have really gotten to like this simple set-up.

It all depends on time, of course. It was an extremely interesting experience to do this blog for the first season. I have learned an amazing amount of things, from reading weather maps to making graphs and animations, besides all the complex info on the Arctic and its sea ice cover. But it was tough too, in between work and family life. It makes me respect people like Michael Tobis, DeepClimate, Gareth Renowden, Patrick Lockerby, Eli Rabett, Tamino, Tim Lambert and all those other bloggers even more than I already did. So it was tough at times, but extremely gratifying and like they say in Holland: He who says A, must say B too.

  

Like I've said from the start my main goal was to attract people who, like me, enjoyed keeping a close eye on the Arctic during the melting season but didn't have a place of their own. I can say now that this was a success, especially because everybody brought their knowledge and theories to the comment sections. This made the whole blog a) more interesting, because it provided a lot of stuff that I couldn't by myself, being the Arctic n00b I am, and b) gave me great ideas for blog posts, like the one about the CAPIE/compactness ratio, the North Hole and many other things.

So after 114 posts, 2685 comments and a million new things learned I like to thank you, you and you! Keep an eye out for sea ice area anomaly, Arctic and global. Read the NSIDC monthly updates to have an idea of what winter is doing to the ice. Keep checking that PIOMAS graph until CryoSat-2 date settles all volume/thickness doubts. And go to my Arctic sea ice graphs Google page if you want to have an overview of all the major graphs and maps out there.

Here's a song I listened to a lot during those long nights making animations and writing blog posts. In a sense it's the theme song of this blog for me (especially the chorus):

We are watching the canary in the coal mine. Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a black swan.

Comments

[Voyageur]

Many, perhaps most, of those who followed and contributed knew far more than I about the Arctic, science, and the complex and dynamic changes we have imposed on our planet. I've learned a great deal, am very grateful and believe that you, Neven, and many others have done a wonderful and valuable service.
I lived for years (no longer) in the Yukon and spent some time in the high Arctic -- including one late-summer, seven-hour Canadian ice patrol flight when all there seemed to be was ice as far as the eye could see in every direction.
So, many thanks for all your enormous effort and for sharing your knowledge and insights.
Some winter I hope to skate the Elfstedentocht

[Neven]

Thanks, Voyageur!

[Daniel Bailey]

Thanks for everything, Neven!

Our hope, like spring eternal, is that come spring and the onset of melt you revive this blog for at least one more wonderful melt season (which may be the last of the MY ice).

It's been grand!

The Yooper

[Andrew Xnn]

Neven;

Thanks again for the effort.
You've got an awesome talent too
as your posts are all so great.

Looking forward to next year.

[Christoffer Ladstein]

The Winter Night sure will feel MUCH longer without you and your followers around, but I'll try to cope with it. On the other hand, my wife might start like me again, being around AND present...
Still, interesting stuff regarding the Arctic or Climate, will none the less surface, also in time of hibernation, so guys, pass the grail, and say: Skål for Neven & all of us Arctic "nerds"!

BTW: This summer brought the most severe meltdown on greenland since measurement started 1873, a mindgoppling 550 km3 of water pouring into the worldseas, in a matter of 3-4 months! That's the double of precipitation hitting Norway annually!

[Phil263]

Thanks again neven for organising and this platform. First class ! I hope you can now enjoy more time with your family . If you have some spare time for reading, I recommend " Climate wars" that was reviewed by Kevin a few months back. And if you have even more time, I suggest Herman Daly's work on ecological economics. It reads very well even if you haven't studied economics.

Take Care .

[Gareth]

Thanks for all the hard work, Neven, and for creating a place where Arctic issues can be discussed without the sturm und drang of sterile debate with deniers. I look forward to further posts as the mood (and freeze-up) takes you...

Cheers

[adelady]

Thanks Neven. It's been an absolute pleasure to have an uncontaminated forum to watch people who know what they're doing talk real science and real sense.

I'm sure a few open threads will keep things alive enough for any important stuff to get us out of hibernation.

[Kevin McKinney]

Again, thanks, Neven. Brilliant! And as you don't need me to tell you (but of course I will anyway), much appreciated. This site has been a most enjoyable, and educational, part of my life these last months. I'll miss the daily activity here.

I've written my own farewell to the season, by the way; some may enjoy it:

http://hubpages.com/hub/Through-A-Glass-Darkly-Equinox-Reflections-2010

Be well, everybody! And thanks to all who made this a special place.

[marktime]

Baie dankie, Neven.

It's been a great ride. And perhaps the greatest compliment to you has been the outstanding level of comment that you have attracted.

De Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Thank you once again.

[dorlomin]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojydNb3Lrrs

We are still a month or two from the anomaly maximum in the Arctic

[Gas Glo]

Thanks from me also for all the effort put into this blog. It has been great and I hope it will continue to be.

Doesn't look like you will win or lose that 20 euro vs stoat - looks like being amazingly close to that centre point of 4.835 (currently thinking between 4.8 and 4.86 though I haven't done any pixel counting).

[Glacierchange.wordpress.com]

I found the blog of tremendous value. The time it took to put together the imagery that let us see the context behind the numbers. If I had one wish it would be that after a break of a month or so, you would put together a series of your animations into a single video-with narration and annotation-Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Log 2010. If you see any great MODIS shots of glaciers in the meantime let me know.

[me.yahoo.com/a/nSjChi4X3vr8X3DRw93GkY1.cerja.8nvWk-]

Nice job Neven I've really enjoyed the site. I'm hoping that the N Pole camera stays long enough to see what happens when it enters the Fram. It's getting rather close but they'll probably retrieve it shortly.

[Chartsgraphs.wordpress.com]

Great job Nevin. I have enjoyed your thoughtful discussion and the excellent comments.

Now that the melt season has ended (I think?), I've been looking at the role the Arctic Oscillation plays in daily SIE changes. Here a plot of JAXA daily SIE change and Arctic Oscillation for the April - August, 2010 period.

http://processtrends.com/images/sie_ao_2010.png

I've looked at each year from 2005 through 2010 and don't see any relationship between daily SIE changes and AO.

I'm curious if you or any of your readers have seen any analysis of SIE change and AO.

Kelly O'Day
http://chartsgraphs.wordpress.com

[Neven]

Thanks for all the nice words, everyone. :-)

A few of you mentioned this, and let me say that I was delighted to see that not one pseudo-skeptic troll showed up during these past months, despite some occasional links to this blog on the other side of the mirror. I haven't had to edit or delete any comments!

And if you have even more time, I suggest Herman Daly's work on ecological economics.

My Amazon wish list contains a few of Daly's books, but like you say: no time to read!

[Neven]

Kelly, in the first weeks of the blog I was very interested in the AO, but after a while I also noted there isn't much of a correlation with (short-term) melt. I think that's because it doesn't matter if the Arctic is dominated by highs or lows as much as it matters where these pressure systems are situated.

[toby]

Great blog, great times ... Thanks for making it such fun.

[fredt34]

It's been a nice summer with you and other commenters, Neven!

Many thanks - à l'année prochaine!

[Artful Dodger]

Kelly: The AO (Arctic Oscillation) index does not measure the important SLP configuration associated with loss of SIE. The DA (Dipole Anomaly) is the critical factor. See Wang, J., J. Zhang, et.al (2009), Is the Dipole Anomaly a major driver to record lows in Arctic summer sea ice extent?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05706, doi:10.1029/2008GL036706.

[FrankD]

Thanks Neven, its been a hoot.
"114 posts" - I don't know how you found the time. I had trouble keeping up just reading and commenting.

"Not too much, as I have really gotten to like this simple set-up."
I for one don't care about the plastic tablecloths and the noise from the kitchen, you've still been serving up some of the best brainfood on the web. So whether you go upscale or keep it simple, don't be gone too long!

"2685 comments" - and unlike almost every other stopover in the blogosphere, pretty much every one of them was interesting and thought provoking. So ,thanks to everyone else, as well.

See you when we all wake up in the spring*

Frank

*For Phil263 and I it will be aestivation, but we understand you boreocentrics. Watching Antarctic ice melt is nowhere near as interesting.
8^P

[Anu]

Good idea, and good job, Neven.

Nice to read articles and comments that attempt to honestly understand what is going on, and aren't drowned out in a sea of inane comments on how CO2 is just a trace gas that cannot affect climate, the Earth doesn't know when summer is over, or the sea ice volume is recovering (actual comments on some blogs...).

Enjoy the Autumn.

[Snowmicrophysics.blogspot.com]

summer is not over yet ..
well in the arctic the melting is going to stop till next spring
but in some southern meridional regions it's summertime tomorrow and till October 28ºC today and 15ºC at night

[Patrice Pustavrh]

Neven, excellent blog, I've really enjoyed it and learnt a lot !!! Thank you for all the information you gathered and presented here. And a lot of gratitude for all commenters here, you provided here a lot of interesting information here. I will watch this winter refreezing also, because it can be hint for next summer.

[Charles Wilson]

Compared to Previous Years, 2010 was:
LOWEST = Volume
Second = 1 Area, 1 Extent Index
Third = 2 Area, 6 Extent " "

This is a clear Progression:
Volume to Area to Extent: It means:
2010 had the Least Ice - - the unusual Wind pattern just spread it wider.
PS: 5 indexes cannot be rated as had no record for 2008 (TOPAZ, NANSEN).

Type/Satellite/site/Year:___2007__ 2008__2010 Spt 1/Minim._23
AREA AMSR CRYO/ijis___2.919__3.003__ 3.24__8=3.072_ 3.28
30%Ext.SSMI DMI_______ 3.06___3.41___ 4.00__3.60=17_ 3.84
AREA Amsr U.Hamburg___3.503__3.817___3.98__9=3.702_na
AREA Amsr at Topaz___________________ 4.07_ 8=3.93__4.14
AREA SSMI ROOS_______ 3.62 __3.87____4.30__9=4.06__4.35
Nansen=ROOS save 2007_3.2937*see note)_4.351_9=4.121_4.40
Area SSMI @ Topaz____________________7-thru-14=4.36__4.48

15%Ext Amsr Hamburg____3.857__4.271___4.78__4.391=17_na
"Extent NATICE__________ 4.01___4.25_________ 4.7065=21
"Ext._Amsr_Bremen______ 4.32*__4.63*___ 5.00__4.60=18_5.00
“Ext.SSMI NSIDC_________4.13___4.52____5.2___4.59=20_4.67
"EXTENT JAXA/IJIS________4.267__4.708__ 5.33__4.799=18*5.04
"Ext.AMSR @ Topaz____________________ 5.42__4.93=22_4.98
"Ext.SSMI Norsex/ROOS___4.74___5.23____6.2___5.44=16_5.96
"Ext.SSMI @ Topaz_____________________ 6.26__5.69=16_5.78
Volume @ PIOMAS_(km3)__4.850__6000___4100__3900=15_Spt

Notes:
* JAXA Extent: I used the lowest (morning) reading.
(2) PIOMAS 2007 is from ICESAT's 6000 for Oct, less the usual Spt-to-Oct gain. It could be lower: as PIOMAS was 1300 higher than ICESAT in Oct, subtracting 1300 from PIOMAS's Spt number = 4,050 instead.
(3) Norsex/ROOS on Spt 13/14 had a "Glitch" so Minimm could be (?)
(4) Norsex/Arctic ROOS, added 10% to Older Data to match the Newer Algorithm
(5) I have assumed TOPEX's legend has SWITCHED AMSR for SSMI, as AMSR typically gives Lower values elsewhere