I received an e-mail today from Russell McKane with an interesting way of predicting the shape of this year's ice pack at minimum extent using ice temperature maps (had no idea those even existed). Thanks for sharing, Russell!
An observer’s prediction of the minimum for 2011
First, I am not a prophet or a prophet’s son. Neither am I a climate scientist or a scientist's son. But I have been reading and researching everything I could get my hands on, on the topic of climate change since 1984. I have also been tracking the ice melt daily in both hemispheres since 2006. Over time I have observed an interesting visual correlation on the Polar View website.
Particularly regards the Ice temperature - amsr.n.Ti2 - graphics as a predictor of arctic ice extent.
Here are a series of images from 2007-2011. It is a comparison of the Ti2 in the last week of July (nominally July27 – although this varies a bit due to data availability) with the ice concentration of the week of Ice extent minimum. I am using the amrs.C 0.3 (30%) ice edge. (The exception is 2009 where this measure was not available so I have used the qscat-HH15 (15%))
Here is the series:
Note the Beaufort sea tends to be the most inaccurate area. I attribute this to the multiyear ice scattered thinly which tends to mean no Ice temperature is recorded, given the amount of open water. But the extent is still there due to the MYI as a function of the Beaufort Gyre’s operation. This was particularly noticeable in 2007 when MYI was much more prevalent. The other area of difference is in the Fram Strait/Greenland–Barents sea edge. This can vary in the coming six weeks depending on the degree of ice transport operating during this period.
It is the final form and shape which tends to have a good correlation. I don’t have the means to put this into a statistical form so I haven’t offered a minimum figure. But here is my prediction, for what it is worth:
I have given some latitude for the Beaufort Gyre and Ice transport.
Update: Russell has asked me to add this image to his article to accompany his comment below explaining the problem with the cyan: