2011 End Zone

Last year I wrote a series of five posts called End Zone, comparing different aspects of the final phase of the Arctic melting season in different years, to be able to predict a bit what those last weeks of the 2010 melting season could be holding in store. A lot of that ground work still stands, so I don't have to repeat it this year. In this post I'll be looking at sea ice concentration and sea surface temperatures mainly, as these are most interesting right now. I basically said everything there is to say about atmospheric pressure, air temperature and ice displacement (no more PIPS, sniff) last year.

Sea ice concentration

I'm trying out something new here, which I hope you'll like. I'm comparing the years of the new Arctic era with 2011 on August 29th by fading the images:

2011 looks quite a bit like 2007, except that the large protuberance is sticking out in the East Siberian Sea instead of the Laptev Sea. That protuberance blocked the Northern Sea Route right till the end of the 2007 melting season. This year it's been wide open since very early on.

What catches my eye in comparison with 2008, is that around that time the ice pack had also retreated from Ellesmere Island, something we have been seeing this year since a couple of days. There was more ice with low concentration in the Beaufort region than now, but that is compensated by the East Siberian region, and of course a much further retreated edge on the Atlantic side. There's more ice in the Canadian Archipelago (and NWP) as well in 2008 than now.

The same goes for 2009. The NWP was still blocked back then. In fact, there was more ice almost everywhere, compared to this year. I guess it wasn't dubbed the 'year of recovery' for nothing.

This year looks quite similar to last year in shape, but there was less ice along the Greenland coast in 2010. The edge of the ice pack almost reaches Svalbard and Franz Josef Land though. Of course, last year was the year that showed large holes in the interior of the ice pack. This year the warm waters of the Laptev Sea seem to be eating their way into the ice pack. My guess is that the Arm of multiyear ice that held out until the end of the 2010 melting season, won't do so this year, for the simple fact that it contains less MYI.

The big difference I see between this year and other years is the total amount of ice in the channels of the Queen Elizabeth Islands. All years have ice there, but this year the eastern part of that region in the Canadian Archipelago is almost completely empty of ice.

Compared to other years, 2007 is showing smaller areas of low concentration ice, because there was a lot of compaction going on back then. In last year's End Zone instalment on sea ice concentration there's an animation that shows how the shape and concentration of the ice pack developed in the last weeks of 2007, 2008 and 2009.

Sea surface temperatures

These images come from the EORC-JAXA webpage and here's what the SST anomalies have looked like so far in August:

Still pretty warm everywhere, especially in the Beaufort and Laptev region.

And here's another animation of the SSTs in the four previous years fading from August to September:

You see the warmth getting sucked out of the ocean during September, except for that huge red blob on the Pacific side in 2007 (which caused a slow freeze-up). Other than that blob 2011 resembles 2007 (and 2008) pretty much. It's not all over the Pacific side like it was then, but it's warmer in the Laptev Sea.

We'll have to wait and see how long the SSTs can continue nibbling at the ice pack, especially on the weak looking Pacific edge... 

Comments

[Kevin Adams]

The differences in the Canadian Archipelago are pretty stark. Wasn't everyone saying a few years ago that this would be the last toehold for ice? The little that's there seems to be floating bergs now.

(Also: anyone else watching the breakup of the ice shelves along the northeast of Greenland? They seem to be in their dying days.)

[Seke Rob]

Beautiful sublimation in the various graphics. If there were a vote to be casted, like it just like that.

Never too shy to ask, the second chart in a weekly sequence would convey if an area is a cooling or warming trend.

As for the observations, that hot band reaching from Svalbard to Greenland it also not to be overlooked. Saw in other post that the space from Svalbard to the ice is now 200Km+. Unseen before to me.

thx

[Neven]

You're right, Seke Rob. The distance between the edge of the ice pack and Svalbard is much larger than in previous years. That's another big difference.

(Also: anyone else watching the breakup of the ice shelves along the northeast of Greenland? They seem to be in their dying days.)

Kevin, people like Espen and Twemoran are keeping a close watch on this in the comment section of the last SIE update.

[Christoffer Ladstein]

And ME, Neven, is taking interest in Greenland, if I get more intersted I better start packing a suitcase:-).

Kevin: The change from one day to another is just amazing!

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2011241.terra.1km

And then for today...

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2011241.terra.1km

That's some serious BIG chunk to break of in just a few hours, the currents and winddirection must be ideal to make that come true!

The last 24 hours have become milder at those latitudes, making room for the rest of the fastice to get torn to pices!?

[Twemoran]

Neven - The 'fade' works wonderfully!

Do we know if the SST anomalies are against a fixed period or against a period that includes the last years measurements

[Seke Rob]

In the End Zone, the webcams have barely moved from first base... had not looked for over a week but here is the tilted NOAA1 and still sending pictures of a frozen up meltpond,

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2011/images/noaa1-2011-0830-122918.jpg

I say barely off first base, but could also say, stuck to home base... barely moved 4 degrees.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/DriftTrackMap.html

No snow having filled the former meltpond (The poles are near desert on the precipitation front I've read at times.

Taking the context of hardly having moved 4 degrees in more than 4 months, it's telling that the sea ice thicknesses observer round there are just mostly 90 cm. Not the coldest spot on earth these days I'd venture to think.

[Seke Rob]

More end zone:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=28&fy=2007&sm=08&sd=28&sy=2011

Comparing 2007 with 2011 side by side, spatially, there may be more extent, but qualitative, I'd say that 2011 looks worse than then. See that 2 big hole there in the CA corner, west of Ellemere?

Noticed today that the ice-finger that points towards Kara has come loose.

Someone mentioned to have the urge to pack and go see the last Greenland landfast... yes, the chances of whiskey on the rocks cut off a 5000 year old slab are rapidly deminishing.

[Dave Leaton]

Is anyone keeping an eye on global sea ice area or have the address to up-to-present Antarctic sea ice area/anomaly data? Thanks.

[Rich and Mike Island]

Good grief. Nearly a century break!

[Rich and Mike Island]

Still 187 thousand square km more than the same date in 2007, but it won't take many more days like it. From 31/8/2007 to 2/9/2007 ice extent *gained* 10,000 square km, so we might just break the 2007 mark!

[Seke Rob]

Re: Dave Leaton | August 31, 2011 at 05:33

Is anyone keeping an eye on global sea ice area or have the address to up-to-present Antarctic sea ice area/anomaly data?

Plotting GSIA whenever new data is available [See Chart]. Currently lowest for the year. The YTD average sea ice area is below 2007 by 216KKmSq. Similar to the YTD anomaly plot for the Arctic [See Chart], plan to make one for the Antarctic too, as will there be a Global.

The data comes off Cryosphere Today with an extra day lag behind the JAXA data: [Link]

[BilltheillFrog]

Re: Dave Leaton

Hi Dave, further to Seke Rob's earlier reply, if you look at Neven's Daily Graphs page, you will see 3 links giving the CT data for Arctic, Antarctic and Global Sea Ice.

As I write this posting (using data up to Star Date 2011.6548 by CT reckoning) the current Global SIA is standing at (or should that be floating at?) 17.405 million sq km. The corresponding 2007 number was 18.019

Due to the phasing of the Arctic/Antarctic melt-freeze cycles, the Global SIA figure shows a very pronounced annual pattern of TROUGH, mini peak, mini trough, PEAK. This can therefore make the year-to-date figures seem a bit odd if not taken into consideration.

However, the y-t-d figures (for yyyy.6548) are..... (drum roll, or egg-on-face roll for those who regard WTF as the font of all knowledge)....
2007 = 17.016 million sq km
2011 = 16.907 million sq km

Global SIA is therefore lower this year than in 2007 using either current value or Y-t-d.

However, this is a somewhat different situation from the present Sea Ice Extent in the Arctic. Using the Jaxa figures up until 30th Aug, the 2007 y-t-d extent is 11.084 million sq km with this year's figures somewhat lower at 11.029. (If I've got the database coding correct!!!)

Pending today's Jaxa revision(s), 2011 will be around 200,000 sq km above 2007 - the next few days might be quite interesting - especially as the 2007 Jaxa figure only dropped about 36,000 sq km over the next four days!

I've really no idea how the Arctic year-end Extent will pan out this year. Although September is obviously the time for the minimum, and everyone here knows about September 2007, it was actually the combined effect of September and October that enabled 2007 to make such ground in the annual average figures.

Irrespective of how 2011 shapes up against 2007 in terms of the absolute minimum (or September average), the subsequent months will also play a very important role in determining which year ends with the lowest annual average.

Me? I'm fence-sitting at present.

[Dave Leaton]

Thanks, Bill, Rob.

[Seke Rob]

The CT Data for Aug 31 is out and lost 48.3K KmSq Area

30-Aug-2011 242 2011,6630 -1,7423078 3,1197248 4,8620324
31-Aug-2011 243 2011,6658 -1,7686507 3,0713782 4,8400288

The image at CT is showing an every denser and spreading purple at the heart... it's a race of fringe melt out against solidification further into the pack it seems. Any winds from the right angle predicted?

[Kevin McKinney]

I'm thinking that the erstwhile 'slush-puppy' might well promote rapid freeze-up under the right conditions. Doesn't freezing happen faster by extension of existing crystal than by formation of new crystal? If so, the slush puppy would be an excellent catalyst due to the high surface-to-volume ratio.

Comments from the more knowledgeable?

[L. Hamilton]

Updated my 1-day UB extent and CT area graphics,
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_UBN_min_to_date.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

CT area for 8/31 dropped slightly, and remains above its low point of 8/25. UB extent, on the other hand, dropped a century and is now more than 100k below either the 2008 minimum or the 2007 value for this date.

[L. Hamilton]

Regarding global sea ice extent, I have some material about that to share after the northern melt season is over. But here's a simple bar graph of 1-day minimum global area through 8/30, drawn in the same format as the northern graphs cited above. It's not interesting enough to update this daily.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_CTglobal_min_to_date.png

[L. Hamilton]

You saw it first here: a graphical comparison of full time series (August means) from Uni Bremen, NSIDC, IJIS, and Cryosphere today, 1972-2011:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_time_series_Aug.png

[Ned Ward]

Hey, nice comparison, L. Hamilton. Very cool to see them all together.

[Ned Ward]

I'm thinking that the erstwhile 'slush-puppy' might well promote rapid freeze-up under the right conditions. Doesn't freezing happen faster by extension of existing crystal than by formation of new crystal? If so, the slush puppy would be an excellent catalyst due to the high surface-to-volume ratio.

If that happens, we'll need a "flash freezing" thread, to complement the "flash melting" one.

[Lucia (The Blackboard)]

L.Hamilton --
Thanks! I only wish that numbers were available online so I could suck that into my weighted model which I use for blog purposes. ( But that reminds me. Steve McIntyre mentioned that R can digitize data from graphs. I'm going to have to look into that!)

[Seke Rob]

Paul K's nerves of interpretation steel are being tested... will the pop-nails hold? (Just kiddin of course :D)

MASIE update [See Chart]with a 58K hike from Aug.31 to Sept.1

MASIE 4796031
JAXA 4734063
Difference 61968

"Northern Hem. Tot.4 796 031 (+58 192)"
"1) Beaufort Sea 580 724 (+3 887)"
"2) Chukchi Sea 185 335 (+1 878)"
"3) East Siberian Sea 536 504 (+23 755)"
"4) Laptev Sea 30 029 (+1 902)"
"5) Kara Sea 30 202 (- 919)"
"6) Barents Sea 7 293 (+1 700)"
"7) Greenland Sea 277 061 (+2 108)"
"8) Baffin Bay G.o.St Lawrence: 5 787 (+1 640)"
"9) Canadian Archipelago: 147 298 (+13 203)"
"10) Hudson Bay 16 334 (+ 532)"
"11) Central Arctic 2 978 356 (+8 506)"

Except for Kara, all show extent expansion... early harsh winter... me big toe is throbbing.

[Bob Wallace]

Flipping between 8/31 and 9/2 what I see is ice being spread wider on the east side, not freezing. More area is covered, but behind the outer edge concentrations have dropped.

Wider spread can easily allow for more rapid melting along the eastern edge. Plenty of warm water, especially off Greenland.

[Seke Rob]

Another installment of "average CT area anomaly for the first [now] 243 days of the years 1979-2011 with the short JAXA record fitted to the CT 2003 anomaly [See Chart]. On both counts they continue to set new records even though neither for the day are lowest. A little red lead line highlights this.