Here's an update on the poll widget in the right side bar. A few weeks back I started a new poll to see whether expectations had shifted since the first poll. I have put up a third and final poll for these last few weeks that ends September 1st (so don't wait too long).
According to my calculations the average is 4.28 million km2, which is slightly up from the 4.20 million km2 from the last poll. This is probably too low, considering the recent slowdown in extent decrease. But it's still possible.
What isn't possible, is that the minimum extent will be over 5.5 million km2, as IJIS extent currently stands at 5.34 million km2. So some people were wrong, three to be precise. One of them was from downtown Los Angeles, the other one lives real close to Deception Bay, and the third one lives close to Stepaside, which I find pretty funny:
To balance things out a bit I'm showing an area with a high concentration of people who think/thought the IJIS minimum extent will go below 3.5 million km2. Isn't that area part of what they call Tornado Alley? Are people seeing some kind of correlation between sea ice extent and tornado activity?
So this blog's community could be projecting a bit too low (4.3 million km2), the WUWT community could be projecting a bit too high (5.0 million km2). If the average between the two comes about (okay, I know, different data sets, etc.), ie 4.65 million km2, maybe we should do a joint submission to the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook next year? Now that would be fun!