SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change) has released its third Sea Ice Outlook report for August.
Here's their summary:
We received 21 responses for the Pan-Arctic report (Figure 1), with estimates in the range of just below 4.0 million square kilometers to as high as 5.4 million square kilometers for the September arctic mean sea ice extent. As in the July Outlook, the median value was 4.6 million square kilometers with quartile values of 4.3 and 4.6 million square kilometers, a rather narrow range. All contributions are well below the 1979-2007 climatological mean of 6.7 million square kilometers, and also below all values seen prior to 2007. Thus, the low values observed the last four summers are expected to continue again this September. On a regional level, the long-term downward trend is expected to continue in all regions except the Greenland Sea.
And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):
So the median is 'stuck' at 4.6 million square km. Jinlun Zhang's projection - based on the PIOMAS sea ice thickness model - has gone up from 4.3 to 4.6 million square km. We see Lucia Liljegren from the Blackboard blog make a contribution, and of course our very own Chris Randles and Larry Hamilton have submitted their projections again. The WUWT poll went from a 5.1 to a 5.0 million square km prediction. NSIDC's Walt Meier's group started with a 4.7 million square km prediction, now 4.5 million square km.
Just for reference, these are the September average extents as calculated by NSIDC for the period 2005-2010 (in million square km):