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Paul Klemencic

Preliminary Bremen map is out.

As noted by Frivolousz21, a lot of ice reappeared in the Beaufort. Since the location of the new ice is nearby where ice floes "melted out" a couple of days ago, it appears there was some consolidation and refreeze of the melt ponds, or shallow ice shelves that were just underwater. However, there are large areas of ice less than 70% (green) now in the Beaufort, interlaced with 70-80% ice (yellow). Over 80% of the ice below 77-78N will melt out this season, and that is over 300k sq km. Some of this ice will be replaced from the central Arctic, if the Beaufort gyre restarts.

The E. Siberian region continues its steady melt. About 300k sq km sit below 80N, and about 250k of that should melt out, with no replacement.

The ice on the eastside is still trying to move about 15-20 km per day toward Eurasia, with limited success, as most of the ice edge melts out. Over the last 4-5 days the ice pack shifted about 60 km in this direction, but in many places the edge barely moved. Ice is moving toward the Fram at a pretty slow rate, and melting out most of the move.

With the movement of the main pack toward the Fram, the hole forming in the pack in the 105E-135E quadrangles is now shifting partly into the 90-105E quad. The hole was squeezed a bit the last two days, but now seems to opening back up again. As the hole shifts, the pack edge toward the Laptev should open up a big gap, allowing seawater from the Laptev to penetrate to 85N, if given favorable wind direction (as currently evidenced by the most recent pack movement. We should see easily 150k sq km loss of extent in the quads around this hole before the end of the season.

Given some loss of extent elsewhere, I expect over 600k loss from the current extent this year. Since my analysis indicates the current extent is less than 4.80 million, this should give us a record low ice extent at the minimum.

Espen

It is simply a soft ware error, it is also shown as far south as the Baltic Sea, where it is +/- 20 celcius (water temp)
Regards Espen

Neven

Mes ami(e)s, I have just posted SIE 2011 update 18: ten yard line. If you would be so kind as to take the discussion there, merci. :-)

Paul Klemencic

The MASIE regional maps have been updated and stamped August 26. I compared the E. Siberian regional map with the old Bremen maps, and found the August 16 Bremen map shows the closest comparison. The reported extent for the Beaufort region on the MASIE map is 605k, and this is consistent with the ice pack shown in the region. The total of all the regional data, is given on the MASIE main page as 5.1 million. yesterday, the extent was given as 5.2 million.

Since the regional maps are ten days old, this the MASIE estimated ice extent of 5.1 to 5.2 million is for August 16!!!

We can predict the future now (note predict, not 'forecast'). The Bremen extent is about 4.80 on August 24 (thanks to Hamilton's comment earlier). The big Flash Melt happened on the 22nd. So we are likely to get small movements down in the MASIE reported number until September 1, then a 100+k drop on the MASIE report stamped September 1. The regional maps should match the August 22nd Bremen map.

Then September 3 stamped MASIE report will likely show 4.8 million extent, consistent with the August 24 Bremen report.

We can watch these events unfold, and compare.

Paul Klemencic

My last comment on this thread, then I move.

Lucia, read my comments in the thread above about access to Bremen data, then look for Hamilton response. I don't have time to re-type all this for you.

Neven

People always wonder about differences between data sets. Well, Paul went and thoroughly looked into it.

Excellent stuff, Paul. Let's see how it pans out.

Lucia (The Blackboard)

Paul

Lucia, read my comments in the thread above about access to Bremen data, then look for Hamilton response. I don't have time to re-type all this for you.

All I asked was
Paul--
Does UB post numerical values or are you just eyeballing graphs?

I wouldn't have thought the answer required a lot of typing more than "Yes. Brenem posts numerical values" or "No. Bremen doesn't. I read off graphs".

I guess I'll look through your zillions of comments and see if I can find the answer. Then, I'll probably ask someone else!

Paul Klemencic

Lucia, I put a lot of time and investigative time into my comments.

You want the simple answer: No, the Bremen numbers aren't available all the time, but one commenter here who knows what he is talking about, has access to the data, and shares occasionally.

But you are really out in the corn field on this one. You are busily crunching numbers with no idea of what they mean, how they were measured, how they relate to the physical system, or even when the measurement was taken. YOU should read every comment of mine on this thread, starting from the top. When you find the comment that starts, "OK guys, if I am wrong on this, I am going to look like an idiot." you should really start reading carefully.

You could learn a lot of how a real skeptic works, instead of a fake skeptic. I am not afraid to admit I am wrong, and correct my mistakes. Real skeptics MUST have this attitude to be effective.

Lucia (The Blackboard)

Paul--
You want the simple answer: No, the Bremen numbers aren't available all the time,...
That's what I wanted to know. I did go back and read to find the information I was interested in. Thanks.

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