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Jim Pettit

CT SIA updated pretty late today, and I see there was yet another nice-sized drop (34,626 km2), which had the effect of taking back a good chunk of Friday's increase. In the past 28 days--four full weeks--less than 20,000 km2 of ice has been added, an amount less than 2% of what was added over the same span last year. That's a pretty amazing statistic in my book.

2011 saw an additional 462K km2 after this date, while 2011 saw an additional 591K. That 2011 number would obviously keep 2012 under the 13 million mark, while the 2007 number would still mean a record low max.

It's gonna be fun to watch...

Timothy Chase

Jim Pettit wrote:

2011 saw an additional 462K km2 after this date, while 2011 saw an additional 591K.
I assume that the first 2011 here was meant to be 2010?

Jim Pettit wrote:

It's gonna be fun to watch....
Agreed.

Jim Pettit

My bad. That second paragraph was supposed read as follows:

2011 saw an additional 462K km2 after this date, while 2007 saw an additional 591K. That 2011 number would obviously keep 2012 under the 13 million mark, while the 2007 number would still mean a record low max.

Thanks for pointing it out...

Neven

In the past 28 days--four full weeks--less than 20,000 km2 of ice has been added

Wow, I hadn't even realized this. Thanks, Jim.

The weather forecast doesn't look like record inducing material to me right now, but I'll have another look tomorrow.

Mike

What I find interesting is the rate of change of the NH anomaly on CT. It is moving consistently and rapidly downward. I think the Bering Sea will just add to this trend when it melts.

crandles

>"2011 saw an additional 462K km2 after this date, while 2007 saw an additional 591K. That 2011 number would obviously keep 2012 under the 13 million mark, while the 2007 number would still mean a record low max."

Following patterns of last 10 years, I make it that 4 out of 10 keep max below 13m km^2 while 7 out of 10 get a record below 13.14 m km^2.

But weather is key. When I wrote max pool article on 31 Jan, I expected sideways movement to continue for a while but now the weather is/has changed. Warm water may continue to hold off area increases in Barents/Kara for a little while longer but the weather looks set to cool them down. Is there then time for much area increase? If there is, it will be only very thin that will melt quickly.

>"I think the Bering Sea will just add to this trend when it melts."

More Insolation is being reflected than usual in the southerly locations like Baffin/Newfoundland and Bering where there is some insolation and if it has been cold, will the ice be thick and slow to melt out?

If the water beneath has been giving a higher heat flux up to the surface than usual then the ice could be thin and catch up to normal as you suggest. But do we have any reason to believe this?

L. Hamilton

CT north dropped another 14k on 2/11, now 259k below 2011 on this date.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_this_date.png

Neven

Yes, looks like Chris Biscan has his 13.5 million km2 anomaly (a bit more even). And I was wrong suggesting yesterday's drop was the last one. But this was surely it?

idunno

Yikes Neven!

a 13.5 million km2 anomaly would only leave 0.3 million km2 of sea ice in the Arctic!

Global anomaly is also falling fast, with the annual maximum fast approaching.

Neven

Did I say a bit more? I meant a bit less, of course. About 12.15 million km2 less. ;-)

Yes, the Antarctic has dropped from +0.35 to +0.26 anomaly. That helps too. But I don't think we'll see a new global SIA record minimum.

Neven

With regards to that last remark: I based myself on the global SIA graph on the graphs page, but see now that it's not up-to-date (should be about 300K lower).

2012 right now is 14.84 million km2.

2006: 14.39
2011: 14.41
2007: 14.63
2005: 14.73

idunno

Hi Neven,

Did I say "annual maximum"? I meant "minimum".

Also the Polish set of graphs, which include the Arctic SIA seem to have stopped updating.

Global SIA has fallen below the 20th Century record minimum.

Neven

Thanks, Larry. I've squeezed it in on the daily graphs page.

crandles

2002 saw a loss in global sea ice area from data for day 0.1123 of 0.31, 2006 a drop of 0.3 and 2009 a drop of 0.26. Those are the three largest drops in last 10 years but none of them is large enough for a record low minimum.

Neven

A third place is max for this min, I think.

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