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Wipneus
but I was too lazy to save the image

You should be able to grab one of the images of the last 30 days here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a_30frames.fnl.anim.html

Just stop the animation at the day you want.

Patrice Monroe Pustavrh

@clouds keep things warmer right now by blocking out-going radiation:
Well Neven, I am not sure about this being true. According to Insolation calculator, current insolation @75 N is 411.15 W/m2, which is I think more than which should be around 300 W/m2 at 0 deg C (black body radiation and it is colder than that now).

Patrice Monroe Pustavrh

Or maybe I just forgot about albedo being pretty high for the moment right ther.

Neven

Thanks, Wipneus. That's very useful. Everyone who is interested, can check it out. Loads of blue at the end of April and a couple of days back.

Patrice, I could be wrong, of course, but my impression is that high pressure areas (ie, no clouds) are making things colder --> polynyas freeze over.

Kris

People,

Do have a look at buoy 48509 .

During the last days maxima between 11,9 °C and 15,4 °C ?

Looks like an impossibility. On the other hand, the all to early polynia there apparently is very persistent ...

HenkL

Data from buoy 48509 are wrong, forget about it. Buoy 48600 can be ignored too.

L. Hamilton

"Apart from Larry Hamilton keeping us up-to-date every couple of days on the DMI SIE numbers..."

Suddenly I feel more responsible. The day-to-day changes have been erratic, but DMI dropped -480k from 5/1 to 5/12.

Paradoxnl.wordpress.com

Neven, great blog!

I am just an uninitiated one about the arctic sea ice subject.

You said:
"clouds keep things warmer 'right now' by blocking out-going radiation..."

I thought that from the beginning of May till the middle of august arctic cloud in general has a net negative effect on the temperature, but ofcourse i could be wrong.
Or is the negative effect of arctic cloud general speaking only in the June /July period?

E.g.:
http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/patterns/feedback_loops.html
"=>Except in summer<=, arctic clouds seem to have a warming effect. This is because the blanket effect of clouds tends to dominate over reductions in shortwave radiation to the surface caused by the high cloud albedo".

and

"The 2011 wintertime increase and => summertime decrease in cloud amount resulted in greater downward energy flux and surface warming <=, potentially contributing to the near record low sea ice extent this year (see the essay onSea Ice). This is in contrast to the general trend over the period 1982-2004, when a decrease in wintertime clouds and increase in springtime clouds over parts of the Arctic acted to dampen surface warming (Wang and Key, 2003,2005)".

Neven

Hello and welcome, Paradoxnl.

I'm far from an expert, but I was really curious to see what a high pressure system over Novaya Zemlya would do the ice. Temps went down, open water froze. And so I just deduced that the lack of clouds makes things colder because of the long-wave stuff radiating out to space. I could be wrong, of course. I still haven't come to grips with this phase, starting before and ending after the maximum.

Neven

Suddenly I feel more responsible.

Larry-Wan Kenobi, you're our only hope. ;-)

Seke Rob

Not posted for long, which does not mean the tracker has stopped capturing data [though it's hobbled with all those sources quitting service. From the oldies gallery: Masie spaghetti since Mar.1.2011 http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/MASIEArcticDaily.png

Some interesting moves and counter moves the last winter. Looks like Hudson is starting to loose some, and Beaufort has it's first sign.

--//--

Seke Rob

An easy to remember link of chart above: http://bit.ly/MASIE1

--//--

Neven

Rob, thanks a lot for that graph. I've added it to the Regional Graphs page.

Werther

Spring arriving…
Kris pushed buoy 48509 in our attention, HenkL dismissed it’s data. Fact is that refreezing of polynia’s has stopped. Not only in the Beaufort Sea, also in the Kara.
Spring has arrived, fairly good sunshine probably interferes with the thermometers, like we saw in or on the north pole web cams. Pr. Patrick Island had -4 dC, Banks -2, Toktoyaktuk had +2 today. Alaska is warming considerably next week.
Hold on and fix the seat-belts…

HenkL

In the upcoming months high pressure over the Arctic with fewer clouds results in incoming solar radiation ('insolation') winning from outgoing radiation and albedo, so warming. As soon as some snow/ice on top is melting into water, that means less albedo with increasing warming effect.
Further: sea ice has small channels with brine inside. These will start to melt when temperatures rise above about -5°C, so the ice gets more porous and water from below can penetrate through the ice, forming water pools on top of it (and less albedo again).

More important in all seasons is that the position of high and low pressure areas determine the lower atmospheric winds and the sea wave directions. West of a High they go polewards in the NH, east of a High southwards. In the summer months this means that west of a High warmer continental air can be transported into the Arctic.

maltose

Here's some data--weekly CO2 at a new record of 397.17 ppm. Up over 4 ppm from this week last year! Of course, we are close to the max for this cycle...
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

Wipneus

Note that when "we" crossed the 396 ppm level in April, CO2 levels were at exactly halfway a doubling from the 280 ppm preindustrial:

280 sqrt(2) = 396.0

Since the CO2 effect progresses in arithmetic fashion where the levels increase in geometric progression (as Arrhenius put it in 1896).

crandles

>"a new record of 397.17 ppm. Up over 4 ppm from this week last year!"

That 392.96 sandwiched between 394 and 394.77 looks rather suspicious. Still an increase of 3.17 or 2.9 on a monthly average basis is higher than normal and we are ENSO neutral but there may well be a lag on the ENSO effects on CO2 changes.

Will we reach 400 in 2013 or 2014? Which month and year?

Daniel Bailey

"Will we reach 400 in 2013 or 2014? Which month and year?"

The seasonal peak normally reaches its apex in May. We have a shot at hitting 400 (at least at the MLO site) in May of 2013. CO2 sink degradation may add June 2013 as a rising CO2 month instead of a declining CO2 month.

If not May/June 2013, then the following CO2 rise season (levels typically rise for 6-7 months then fall for the remaining 5-6 months); I'll go with April 2014 if 400 ppm is not reached in 2013.

MLO
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Global (1-month processing lag)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global

Kevin McKinney

"Will we reach 400 in 2013 or 2014? Which month and year?"

A new betting topic. Though it's a little reminiscent of sitting on the Titanic, watching the lifeboats recede, and making book on the time the foredeck first reaches sea level...

Chris Reynolds

Neven,

Thanks for the link to Terible Taxidermy. That polar bear has had me laughing on and off for the last hour.

Al Rodger

"Will we reach 400 in 2013 or 2014? Which month and year?"
The annual average CO2 rise still hovers around the 2ppm mark suggesting April 2014 as the likely timing for 400ppm.
To reach 400ppm by 2013 would require an ENSO event similar to (or greater than) 1998 when the annual CO2 rise blipped up above 3ppm for a sustained period. So is this coming El Nino going to be a whopper? I hear nobody perdicting a whopper (then do they ever) so I'd reckon 400ppm in 2013 is unlikely.

crandles

May 2013 might be closer than you think. At 397.17 for first week in May, the average for May is likely to be higher than that. So an increase of only around 2.7 for year to May 2013 may be enough.

Looking to similar times in ENSO cycle:
May 2009-May 2010 rose 2.74,
2004 and 2006 were pretty weak and barely lasted into 2005/7.
May 2002-May 2003 rose 2.85,
May 1997-May 1998 rose 2.8.

To say 3 out 3 similar times in cycle increased by enough is definitely pushing it, as they are pretty marginal as to whether enough or not and two weak El Ninos have been dismissed for not lasting long enough. So even 3 out of 5 might still be pushing it a little.

Anyway, I will go for March 2014.

Kris

Crandles wrote:

May 2013 might be closer than you think

I'm pretty sure that will be next year ...

That's at least what I am thinking.

Kris

People,

Do have a look at the Denmark temperature chart:

There is an ongoing giant "hot spell" over the Amundson route, in the entire Beaufort Sea (from the continental coast till Banks Island and even deeper into the Artic. As well as a part of the Chucksi Sea.

So, after all, it could well be buoy 48509 and 48519 have it right.

And as a further argument, at Barrow they had for over the past week -4 °C a maximum temperature, today even -2 °C, and for the next days even a +1 °C is expected.

With -2 °c air temperature but in plain sun even onshore the ice is melting now as you can see (as on soil and surface temp is positive). To be noted also, the snow on the roofs has completely been melted away (already).


Neven

IJIS is back! Have to run now...

Phil263

IJIS is back!

Excellent. Lots of interesting information from the dataset:
1) Maximum extent of 14,433,281 sqkm was higher than 2010, second only to 2003 and much higher than the 2000s average

2)Extent decrease did not start before April and somewhat erratic after that

3)Melting pattern seems close to 2008, 2009 with 2010 having already caught up by now.

Artful Dodger

AMSR-E is still offline. IJIS is using WindSat data for Oct. 2011 to the present.

Note that WindSat is now an 11-year old bird, launched in Jan 2003 for a 3-yr demonstration project. It is currently operated by the US Navy:

http://www.onr.navy.mil/focus/spacesciences/satellites/windsat.htm

HenkL

Temperature data from buoy 48509 are way too high in the hours before and around 00Z, up to 15°C higher then nearby coastal station Sachs Harbour.
I suspect that the buoy is tilted, so solar radiation can reach the sensor directly (not an unusual problem with buoys in/on ice).

Measurements from buoy 48519 are OK.

Nevertheless, temperatures did raise enough for melting around Beaufort Sea and NW Passage.

Kevin McKinney

Cool! And from a 'bird' designed to deliver information on wind...

But I have to wonder how homogenous this year's data is? Presumably IJIS have done what they can to splice the data as adroitly and as accurately as possible?

Oh well, that won't affect our ability to follow day to day changes--though historical context will remain somewhat problematic, I suspect.

Al Rodger

Kevin mentions "splice" & there perhaps is a sign of that. The last 5 of my IJIS 'monthly annual rolling averages' provided before the demise of AMSR-E were lower than the new values (by 5k, 10, 17k, 23k, 25k respecively).
It could also just as easily be a adjustment for the failing AMSE-E but when it's graphed out, the slight narrowing between the IJIS & NSIDC Extent values is now more noticable.

maltose

Is the IJIS area graph back online too? What was the URL?

maltose

Never mind, I found it. I see that it (IJIS area graph) is still at last October. Though, Neven, if CT comes back online sometime, you can start doing the CAPIE calculations again. :-)

Neven

Maltose, you need to refresh your browser when you're on the IJIS webpage.

Though, Neven, if CT comes back online sometime, you can start doing the CAPIE calculations again.

Yup. :-)

maltose

I can't get May 14th area, just May 14th extent on the main page. I tried refreshing.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Area.png

Neven

Sorry, maltose, I didn't see you said 'area'.

maltose

No problem, Neven

Neven

Speaking of area: CT now also added two days of data to the file...

maltose

Hooray! Cryosphere Today is back online!

maltose

It has updated to May 14th now.

Artful Dodger

Hi Kevin,

Because WindSat has been in service so long, it's data has been extensively validated against AMSR-E (which began service only about 7 months before WindSat). There are lot's of validation studies available online.

One big difference is that WindSat's spatial resolution is a somewhat lower 25 km, vs the 12.5 km resolution AMSR-E data used by IJIS.

Additionally, AMSR-E (hosted on NASA's Aqua satellite) rides the "A Train", while WindSat flies a somewhat different (but still Heliocentric) orbit.

Orbital inclination for WindSat is 98.7° vs 98.14° for Aqua. As a consequence, the "North Pole Hole" is somewhat larger in the WindSat data. But we will still get lovely views of the "North Hole" from MODIS instruments onboard Aqua and Terra (mornings and afternoons in the A-Train).

Chris Biscan

Ice loss is about to pick up a lot as warm southerly winds will be blowing into the Bering Sea and the ESAS.

5-8C 850s will move into North Eastern Siberia and over the ice pack.

with these conditions any shoreline ice displaced and open water forms will quickly warm up at the surface and not allow any new ice to form.

This goes on for a while.

The Baffin Bay has warm air(pumped in around an SLP from the South, larger regions of very thin ice and scattered floes will melt out and compact.


Another SLP forms North of the Nordic Countries.

blow torches the Southern Kara and Barents.


I would expect the Sea Ice Extent to decline faster and move closer to the lowest extents on record by days 7-10.

Misfratz.wordpress.com

@Chris Biscan - "Ice loss is about to pick up a lot"

It certainly looks that way from the NSIDC concentration chart:

1. The cross-polar sea-ice drift has opened up clear water by Banks Island.

2. The Hudson Bay also looks very close to a widespread melt (though Uni Bremen has higher sea-ice concentrations here - could this be that NSIDC are picking up surface melt-ponds that Uni Bremen are not?).

3. The Laptev sea - where the cross-polar sea-ice drift is moving towards - has started to show some decline.

It looks like it is all about to start happening quite quickly.

Wipneus

IJIS has a near century break, and a near double century break:


05,14,,12315469
05,15,,12217188
05,16,,12020469

See if that gets a correction.

Kevin McKinney

Thanks, Dodger!

If I can tempt you to expand just a tad further, what does 'heliocentric' mean in this context?

Jim_pettit

A few notes now that CT SIA data is back up:

--Since the last update on April 28, Arctic SIA has dropped a pretty dramatic 1.14 million km2; as of this past Monday (the latest data available as of this writing), it was at 11.51 million km2. (By way of comparison, area dropped by 837,000 km2 over the same time period in 2011, and just 404,000 km2 over the same period in 2007.)

--It took just 14 days this year for SIA to drop from 13 million km2 to 12 million km2; in 2011, that took 46 days. In fact, the 14 days it took this year is the fastest drop on record.

--It took just 36 days this year for SIA to fall from its maximum to 12 million km2, also the fastest drop on record (and the first and only time it's taken fewer than 40 days). Last year required 49 days. Other selected years:

2010: 57 days
2009: 69 days
2007: 55 days
1992: 85 days
1987: 87 days
1983: 84 days
1979-2011 average: 65 days

--Even though SIA didn't reach its maximum until Day 90 this year--the latest ever by a week--it still crossed the 12 million km2 threshold a week ahead of the long-term average, and more than two weeks ahead of the 1980s decadal average.

Al Rodger

Concerning IJIS 'splicing' the old AMSR-E onto the new WindSat data, ignore my comment of May 15 above (if you haven't already).
On inspection it was a simple synchronisation issue as, rather than making all years 365 days, IJIS are now giving data for 29 Feb.

There is however one evident change that will likely impact on discussion of "century breaks" etc, - the WindSat data is visibly noisier with daily changes flapping up & down over twice as much as the ASMR-E data did.

Artful Dodger

Hi Kevin,

Pardon, a better term would be a "helio-synchronous" orbit. From the NOAA website:

"The orbit is sun-synchronous, which means that the satellite passes over the same spot of the Earth at about the same local time everyday. Aqua crosses the equator from south to north at about 1:30 pm local time."

This type of orbit was chosen specifically for the A-train to provide consistent imagery throughout the year, regardless of the season. Cool, eh?

Neven

Thanks for that, Jim Pettit. I love those stats.

There is however one evident change that will likely impact on discussion of "century breaks" etc, - the WindSat data is visibly noisier with daily changes flapping up & down over twice as much as the ASMR-E data did.

Yes, I noticed that too. I just posted a blog for this grand occasion: IJIS is back. I'm a bit busy right now, but later today I'll give my first impressions on the new IJIS.

L. Hamilton

DMI going down but more slowly, -75k on 5/14 and -47k on 5/15. Still about 90k above 2007 on this date.

Artful Dodger

More on the A-train from here:

The "A" in A-Train is for "afternoon" because the lead satellite, Aqua, crosses the equator at the mean local time of approximately 1:30pm. Five of the satellites are currently in orbit.

The sixth was to be the Orbiting Carbon Observatory. The OCO mission was lost in a launch failure on Feb. 24, 2009 when the payload fairing of the Taurus launch vehicle failed to separate during ascent.

A NASA press release on OCO-2 was issued on May 10, 2012:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/oco/news/oco20120510.html

"Its construction now complete, the science instrument that is the heart of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) spacecraft – NASA's first mission dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide – has left its nest at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and has arrived at its integration and test site in Gilbert, Ariz."

Launch of OCO-2 may occur in Summer 2014, according to the May 10 Press Release.

Chris Biscan

This is the Beaufort Sea ice up close. You can see some large ice floe that are mixed with small floes, but if you look close you can see large pockets of very very bery small floes. Some are to small to pick out in cluster that look solid. Basically this ice has no stability and is very thin with snow on it right now. But the snow is melting and letting in to much radiation. This is normal, however the pattern has yielded mild temperatures and lots of sunshine.\


the Beaufort's most Soythern tip is around 69 and half degrees North. Most of the bay covers 70-80N. 70 North is pretty far south. The Beaufort historically has been a safe haven for MYI because of the Beaufort Gyre and because most of the Beaufort is very deep.

In the past there was a pretty large cold layer. In the past 15-20 years, but especially the last 6 years a deep warm layer directly below the surface has formed from added heat from summer albedo being raised dramatically.


While it is not for certain how much this impacts the ice directly during winter, we know now during summer once the sun heats up the water the warm layer moves towards the bottom of the ice as the fresh water is mixed out. Then the bottom melt is tremendous. Over 2 meters in spots. Imagine 10 feet of ice melting in one summer. We have recently observed that.

Below is the Beaufort Sea. The top image is 3 days ago. It is the modis block of the South Western Beaufort. You can see the overlay Latitudes. There is a large area of open water now that is soaking up solar radiation whenever possible. Which is a quite a bit. The Sun at 70N right now spends 9 hours per day with a solar altitude over 20 degrees. 73N spends nearly the same above that altitude. This is not that strong, just the beginning. All of this ice will melt out this summer and will do so way before the average melt date. Even now this is very anomalous. The Sea Ice Extent is still being held above the record low extents because of the Bering. So we are following a trend of this. This is a lot of early melting in area's that historically still had ice growth this time of year.

Below you can see a shot of the Beaufort up close where the ice is falling apart. The white area's is open water. You can see the large area and the cracks that are pretty large.

THe 2nd image is up close but also has more cracks from recent melt.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

On the other side the Atlantic side is torching:

Posted Image


That area of warm water in the Barents will get warmer this weak and be blown into the ice.


Way above normal 5-10C 850mb temps will reach the central Barents to the coast for a couple days. Temps reaching the shore will be above 20C, so that water will warm quite a bit.

Kris

By Jove!

Do have a look ast the Danish temp chart:

The "hotspell" has spread out now from the Queen Elisabeth Islands to the New Siberian Islands, covering the entire Beaufort-, Chucksi- and East-Siberian Seas!
Positive temperatures for a while at Ostrov Vrangelja (Wrangel Island) and up to -1 °C at Ostrov Kotel'Ny.

And these 3 seas have definitely been transformed into a "Swiss cheese" now.

Very disturbing it is ...

Chris Biscan

Jaxa and CT plummemting now down near record lows

k eotw

The first call for contributions has been released for the 2012 SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

crandles

>"Jaxa and CT plummemting now down near record lows"

We are approaching the time of year when all years huddle together. IJIS range 2003-2011 reaches minimum on 28 May at a mere 545k.

Currently 290k above 2006 minimum and 396k below 2009 maximum. That sounds more middle of the range than near record low.

The reason it looks near record low is that the new graph does not show 2004 and 2006. The old graph shows it more as middle of the range.

Still middle of the range is lower than near top of the range.

Rob Dekker

Thanks Otto !

Interesting quote from that paper :

From 1 March to 1 October, the total solar heat input to the multiyear ice was 893 MJ m−2 compared to 1235 MJ m−2 to the seasonal ice. Keeping the incident solar and the onset dates of melt and freezeup the same; the shift from multiyear to seasonal ice increased the solar heat input by 342 MJ m−2, a 38% increase and enough heat to potentially thin the ice by 1.02 m.

Kris

People,

Do have a look again at the Barrow beach.

With a little bit of sun and a litlle bit of rain and the continuing high temperature just off shore ponds have been created already (the large grey spots and stripes).

To bad the mass balance there had been messed up by the polar bears. :-)

Twemoran

ARCco is showing an open (and rapidly flowing) Nares Strait.

Odd that all the photos show the ice arch still firmly in place.

Terry

Neven

Kris, I wrote several blog posts last year about the Barrow ice break-up forecast. Part 1, 2, 3, 4. For Part 2 I made this comparison of Barrow webcam images for the 2006-2011 period on May 27th.

---

Hi Terry, what is ARCco, if I may ask?

I also figured the water is flowing fast below the ice in Nares Strait, as the North Water Polynya keeps getting bigger and bigger, but as you say the ice plug in Kane Basin seems to be firmly in place. It's too bad we don't have any ASAR images anymore to look at via DMI, but the ice looked thinner compared to last year. I think that's because last year there was a late extra freeze in the region, whereas this year it has been 'warmer'. So I'm expecting Nares Strait to open up sooner than last year (June 17th).

Twemoran

Neven

Referring to the Navy HYCOM/CICE/NCODA Arctic ice speed and drift chart.

Both the 16th and 17th are showing ice flow through Nares, which of course is not occurring.

The ice does look thinner so prior to mid June sounds reasonable.

Terry

Jim_pettit

CT SIA continues to shrink; ice area dropped below 11 million km2 yesterday, Day 140--the same day it did so in 2007, and just four days after it did last year.

Interesting stat: from 1979 through 2011, it took an average of 82 days for SIA to drop from its maximum to below 11 million km2. Over the last ten years (2002-2011) it's averaged less time, just 74 days. But this year it's done so in a remarkable 50 days--by far the quickest ever by nearly two weeks (the previous record was 62 days in 2003).

I've created an SIA chart based on a very similar chart showing extent that hasn't been updated since last September (around the time AMSR failed). I slightly changed the format, but I think it works well to illustrate the utter lack of the hoped-for-by-denialists ice "recovery" (best viewed full size):

Gone, baby, gone

John Christensen

Repeating the quote from Tenney Naumber (thanks again Otto!):

From 1 March to 1 October, the total solar heat input to the multiyear ice was 893 MJ m−2 compared to 1235 MJ m−2 to the seasonal ice. Keeping the incident solar and the onset dates of melt and freezeup the same; the shift from multiyear to seasonal ice increased the solar heat input by 342 MJ m−2, a 38% increase and enough heat to potentially thin the ice by 1.02 m.

If these numbers hold true, it would seem that the Artic sea ice may be even more exposed to incidental weather events that previously thought, and it shows just how difficult it would be for the sea ice to recover (ceteris paribus) after the 2007 event with massive amounts of MYI being transported out of the Fram Strait.

On the other hand, if weather patterns allow a larger than expected amount of MYI to stay in the protected area (crandles has an image elsewhere on this blog), it should have equally positive extended effects, but in addition to the higher water and air temperatures, an increase of 38% in solar heat input to the area converted from MYI to seasonal ice makes it a steep uphill battle for those of us hoping for even the slightest recovery of Arctic sea ice..

BTW; I will fly from New York to Tokyo today with a window seat at the right side of the plane hoping for clear skies and good views of the ice. This flight normally passes Hudson, the archipelago, Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering, and edging the SOO.

Neven

Jim Pettit wrote 1 month ago:

Looking at forecasts and reading what others here have written, my guess--and, given my utter lack of success in the "Guess The Maximum Extent" poll, you should probably just ignore me--is that dropping below 12 million km2 will take about two weeks (and, to stick my neck out even farther, 11 million will only take another two weeks after that).

Well, Jim, if your graph is correct, you seem to have been right on the money! Two times 14 days for 2 million km2 to melt.

crandles

Wow, brilliant accuracy Jim. (The graph is correct we have been 14 days in 12s' and 14 days in 11s'.)

Mike

Thanks Jim, I was just wondering what was happening with area and you've answered the question very clearly.

Apocalypse4Real

Jim,

The graph is invaluable for visualizing the long term trends in a different and compelling format.

Any possiblity that you might continue to update it, and Neven might post it with your consent?

maltose

Mauna Loa CO2 now above 397 ppm for two weeks in a row!

L. Hamilton

DMI down -250k over the last 3 days, 5/18-5/20. That makes 2012 extent about 100k lower than 2007 on this date, but 100-200k higher than 2010 or 2011.

Seke Rob

snipquote:

"Well, Jim, if your graph is correct, you seem to have been right on the money! Two times 14 days for 2 million km2 to melt."

/snipquote

then

"Jim,

The graph is invaluable for visualizing the long term trends in a different and compelling format."

Should I be flattered with a copy down to the hue, color-code and shade? Jim Petitt does not read like he's from the PRC, but it's OK Jim ;P

As commented in others thread the "original" for extent will be resumed [but 2012 will be top of the chart ;>)

--//--

Twemoran

Seke

Awaiting the update. I think your chart last year gave me a better feel for the pace of extent loss over the years than any other format.

They say imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.

Terry

Bob Wallace

Jim was quite forthcoming about deriving his chart from Rob's. He even provided a link to the original. He stated that he made his version because the original was not up to date.

Jim_pettit
Neven wrote:
Well, Jim, if your graph is correct, you seem to have been right on the money! Two times 14 days for 2 million km2 to melt.>
Crandles wrote:
Wow, brilliant accuracy Jim. (The graph is correct we have been 14 days in 12s' and 14 days in 11s'.)

Purely luck, I can assure you; just take a look at my guess for maximum area and day in case you think otherwise. ;-)

Seke Rob wrote:
Should I be flattered with a copy down to the hue, color-code and shade? Jim Petitt does not read like he's from the PRC, but it's OK Jim ;P

You should definitely be flattered. In fact, I created my verison in the first place because I was in awe of what you'd done, and wanted to see whether I could duplicate the effort (in Excel) for area for myself. And, yes, the colors were--obviously--intentionally copied from yours to maintain consistency in look and feel. You know, for the sake of familiarity, and all that...

Bob Wallace wrote:
Jim was quite forthcoming about deriving his chart from Rob's. He even provided a link to the original. He stated that he made his version because the original was not up to date.

All true. I certainly wasn't pirating in the best tradition of the PRC; I was merely borrowing with what I'd hoped was proper attribution.

Apocalypse4Real wrote:
Any possiblity that you might continue to update it, and Neven might post it with your consent?

I would have no problem with that, and would in fact be happy that others derived usage from it. But since my chart is merely an adaptation/imitation of Seke Rob's excellent original, I'd defer to both his permission and Neven's judgement.

Twemoran wrote:
They say imitation is the most sincere form of flattery.

Indeed. ;-)

Neven

Seke Rob's Extent version is already on the Long-term Graphs page. Jim's flattering Area rip-off ;-) would look nice next to it.

It'd be nice if updated graphs would have the same address, so they automatically get updated. Maybe I should move both of them to the Daily Graphs page.

Seke Rob

Ctrl-F5. Right top is the current 'minimum'

--//--

Neven

ASI update 3 is here for all to see.

Jim_pettit
Neven wrote:
Seke Rob's Extent version is already on the Long-term Graphs page. Jim's flattering Area rip-off ;-) would look nice next to it... It'd be nice if updated graphs would have the same address, so they automatically get updated. Maybe I should move both of them to the Daily Graphs page.

Again, I'd be honored if you cared to use my version. Please let me know, and I will a) clean up the graph a bit; b) add sourcing information, etc.; c) invert the years (most recent on top) so my format more closely matches that of Seke Rob's extent chart; and d) upload the chart to a persistent URL for automatic updating.

(FWIW, I've been working on a new chart that helps in visualizing long-term SIA loss. If/when I can get it where I want it, I'll post a link to it so i can see whether anyone else finds it usable.)

Neven

Jim, as soon as you have some links, please let me know, and I'll put them on one or more of the ASI Graphs pages.

Tor Bejnar

Today's ARCc0 Ice Speed and Drift forecasts sure do move a lot of ice out the Fram on May 30 and 31. Because of the colors used, it looks like the ice will be burned up!

Tor Bejnar

DMI's TERRA images of the Kane Basin show little change in the non-arch shaped ice arch from 9 days ago, and both images show a greenish-yellowish rim or halo that rounds out the arch shape. It was much less developed a month ago. Does this discolor indicate serious weakness in the ice?

The polynya ENE of the arc is larger than it was last week, as is the smaller one due north of the arc. (Is there a hot spring there? I don't imagine wind or currents opening this smaller polynya.)

Neven

and both images show a greenish-yellowish rim or halo that rounds out the arch shape.

Yes, I noticed that too the day before yesterday. It's too bad there aren't any radar images of Kane Basin on DMI anymore.

Last year the ice bridge in Kane Basin collapsed around June 17th. I'm guessing this year will be earlier.

And an animation of what happened after that. 16 days after the ice plug disintegrated ice was on the move from the Lincoln Sea towards Baffin Bay.

Michael Fliss

It is the Flagler Bay Polynya, a latent-heat polynya, that is closest to the large North Water Polynya seen extending from Smith Sound to Kane Basin. The Flagler Bay Polynya has on its sides the Knud and Bache Peninsulas with meltwater channels that winds sweep down and the Bache Peninsula is a headland which affects the ocean currents.

http://booksite.academicpress.com/DPO/gallery/ch12/012022_full.jpg

Llosmith57

It is the Flagler Bay Polynya,

Thanks for the link MIchael. It shows the overall picture of sea temperatures and wind fields combining to move and eliminate ice.

Jim_pettit

There was a big drop in CT SIA yesterday (Day 149): 209K km2. Assuming it stands, that's the first double-century break of the year, and, in fact, is the largest one-day decrease since June 29 of last year (when 231K km2 was lost).

So far this May, CT SIA has decreased by 2.176 million km2, or more than 77K km2 per day. By contrast over the same time period:

-2011: 1.742 million km2 / 62K km2 per day
-2007: 1.242 million km2 / 44K km2 per day

2012 SIA is now 268K km2 smaller than 2007 was on this date. There's 213K km2 more ice than on this date last year. However, from day 150 through Day 154 last year, an average of more than 9K km2 of ice was added each day. Meaning that, barring some unforeseen circumstance, 2012 SIA should be at a historic low point for the date no later than the first few days of June.

crandles

Lowest required rate seems to be 59.5k per day for 6 days. That gets us below 2010s' 9.868 m km^2. But should we move to update 3?

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