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crandles

Nice update, thank Neven.

>"DMI 80N temp graph has kept going up fast, reaching the 0 °C line"

I have wondered whether that 0C is real or not with other DMI problems going on. I don't think an extra days line has been added with the Saturday update so that is making more suspicious of that 0C.

R. Gates

Another very excellent update. I've got a quick thought, maybe the Arctic Sea Ice Blog family here can submit a public guess at the Pan-Arctic September low extent on ARCUS. I think we've got a great bunch of very knowledgeable people here, and we've certainly got to do better than the WUWT group does (who continually is among the most inaccurate) in terms of their estimates, though Anthony has encouraged them to not be too "overly optimistic" this year, meaning they always guess too high as skeptics, perhaps listening to Joe Bastardi and continues to think this is all cyclical and the Arctic sea ice going to begin to recover.

Here's the guidelines for making the official submission:

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/guidelines


Downside: We've got to get our guess in by Monday June 4th, for the first round! Even if only a few of us take a stab at it this first round, you an average all those, and submit one from this blog.

I'll start it off...

4.4 million sq. km. for this first round. My basis is CAPIE showing lots of melt ponds early coming at the time of maximum Arctic insolation, the warmth on the Atlantic side and amazing perpetual low sea ice already in the Barentz, Kara, and now Laptev starting to melt out. This will be important later in the summer when we get divergence of ice from the central Arctic basin into these areas and the warmer water will melt it faster.

Anyway, I say the Arctic Sea Ice Blog family should go for a guesstimate this year!

Otto Lehikoinen

Masters Wunderground-page for (synoptic?) weather reports and local forecasts around Greenland: http://www.wunderground.com/global/GL.html
It seems the Summit Station record is currently out of service/circulation.

Neven

Thanks, crandles. It hadn't occurred to me, but you're absolutely right. I've added an edit to that part of the update.

R. Gates, last year I contemplated doing a group submission, but thought better of it. First of all I wouldn't know how to organize it. And for me a poll is not an option. Where WUWT will guess too high, this blog community will probably guess too low. In fact, the best submission would probably be a combination of both polls! ;-)

But I'm putting up two polls later today (NSIDC SIE monthly and CT SIA daily). Better late than never.

Seke Rob

Several feature enhancements and size-ups applied to some charts:

http://bit.ly/IJISMD - added a column for daily average of the current million step compared to history. Whilst melt moves earlier, some steps seem to extend a bit with that.

http://bit.ly/MASIEA - added a column that shows the same day last year variation. But for the known... Chukchi, Bering, Greenland Sea, Siberian, predominantly lower extents.

http://bit.ly/CTGB01 - The global sea ice... blasted through the last years track and that of 2007... 100KKm2 lower.

-- Rob

P.S. No too low prediction... IJIS/JAXA minimum 2012: 4.1MKm2, with a new CAPIE record too.

idunno

Hi all,

As of today, CT area is the lowest ever for this day of the year.

Neven

As of today, CT area is the lowest ever for this day of the year.

Yup, but IJIS is still slow. So what is causing the discrepancy? Melt ponds? Or is it the switch to Windsat?

Right now I think the first because on the Arctic ROOS charts there's also a marked difference between the order of years between area (2012 close to other years) and extent (2012 last).

BTW, I was thinking about the DMI 80N temp graph. It's a model, right? Because there aren't many stations above 80N they extrapolate. Could it be that the Greenland warmth (see ClimateProgress)is causing the trend line to go up more?

Peter Ellis

Yup, but IJIS is still slow. So what is causing the discrepancy? Melt ponds?

I think so. Looks very extensive this year, with "blue ice" right round the Russian periphery from the Laptev sea through to the Bering strait.

Area's showed the fastest drop, IJIS - with a 15% threshold for extent - isn't seeing the drop-off, while DMI -with a 30% threshold for area - is intermediate.

L. Hamilton

Of possible interest, this arrived from SEARCH:

New Online Resource Available Early-Release Data on Ice Thickness, Snow Depth, and Ice Characteristics Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)

The full webpage, including contact information, is available at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ice-thickness-data

--------------------
A new webpage, developed through the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), provides access to early-release datasets on ice thickness, snow depth, and ice characteristics collected in March/April of 2012 in the North American Arctic. The webpage is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ice-thickness-data.

Data were obtained by different projects, centering around the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Operation IceBridge survey flights with key contributions from National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded activities of the interagency Arctic Observing Network (AON).

The goal of this early release of preliminary data is to provide timely information to the international sea-ice prediction community for initialization of seasonal ice predictions, in particular for the North American arctic sector. This work, including the contributions by NASA's Operation IceBridge and AON projects, in particular the Seasonal Ice Zone Observing Network (SIZONet) project, is motivated by SEARCH's Arctic Sea Ice Outlook, an international activity for the synthesis and dissemination of seasonal ice projections:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.

The data release includes contributions from different U.S. federal agency, private industry, and international partners to provide timely sea-ice data of broader relevance in the North American Arctic. The data acquisition reflects collaboration with local government and co-management boards to avoid interfering with subsistence hunting activities and provide information of relevance to coastal communities.

Datasets available through this webpage include:
1. NASA Operation IceBridge Quicklook Data
2. Seasonal Ice Zone Observing Network (SIZONet) Airborne Electromagnetic induction (EM) Ice Thickness Surveys Quicklook Data
3. Fugro Earth Data, Inc. Airborne P-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Survey Quicklook Data
4. Naval Research Laboratory Tandem Flight Airborne LiDAR and Radar Altimeter Surveys
5. SIZONet Surface-based EM Survey Data (Barrow Landfast Ice Region and Drifting Multiyear Ice Site)
6. Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL)-Arctic Observing Network Ice Mass-balance Buoy Data
7. SIZONet Snow and Ice Property Measurements

The full webpage, including contact information, is available at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ice-thickness-data.

L. Hamilton

DMI looks like they're back in business. Showing the second-lowest extent for 6/2, about 35k above 2011.

michael sweet

Neven,

The graph of Arctic buoys shows about 15 buoys north of 80N and there are at least 3 land based sites in Canada and Greenland. There are a couple other islands in the 80 circle that probably have temperature sites. I think they have enough data that they don't need a model. I note from the buoy locations that the area near North America is better covered than the area near Siberia. If you look at the north pole web cam site (one thermometer is stuck on -3.2C) and the o buoy web cams it gives the temperatures and they correlate to the DMI graph. It got colder yesterday at those locations.

Tor Bejnar

I look regularly at Kane Basin images on the DMI site (sometimes at NASA's rapidfire site). Comparing June 3 MODIS/AQUA with May 12 MODIS/TERRA, I see bits and pieces have recently sloughed off the ice bridge/arch, making much of it have a straight N-S presentation (presuming the image has North up). In May there was a much less straight edge. There is a great deal more brown showing on the neighboring land surface than 3 weeks ago. It is easier now to “see” through the snow cover and note thicker “icebergs” and thinner iced-over areas in the packed ice.

idunno

Hi all,

CT area drops back to third place.

crandles

PIOMAS graph updated. Now falling below last year.

Neven

Thanks, crandles. PIOMAS June 2012 is up.

Data since March 2nd has been updated.

Neven

Is it me or is Vilkitsky Strait already open?

Two years ago it took until day 190 for the strait to clear (see blog post at the time). So a month earlier. If it IS open, that is. It's a bit cloudy there.

Kris

Neven asked:

Is it me?

I do think so.

There are some polinia in the immediate neighbourhood, yes, but still masses of floes too. And there is no way to the open sea, which in my worthless opinion should be the defenition of "open" (sea).
BTW, these polinia are present there already since early February as I mentioned at that time.

Notwithstanding that, the goddamned Belgian shipping company can be pretty sure to carry oil from Murmansk to Japan even earlier in summer than last year.

DrTskoul

I have updated the figure for the regional MASIE extent (normalized)

MASIE Regional Normalized Extent - Day 156

Neven

I'm seeing some massive day-to-day changes for the past two days on the UB SIC maps. If this translates into area/extent decrease we're bound to see some century breaks. Huge differences from one day to the next, practically everywhere, Bering, Barents, Laptev, Hudson, you name it.

And with ECMWF keeping that big high over the Beaufort Sea for the next 3-4 days at least, we could be in for more of the same.

Seke Rob

@DrTsKoul, presuming your normalization is 100% equals max of 2012, I'm getting 25.7% decline since, for June 3. The regional percentages shown in your chart also differ slightly for what my abacus beats out. Where am I wrong?

-- Rob

L. Hamilton

By a thin margin over 2011, DMI extent on 6/5/2012 is lowest for the date.

Seke Rob

I wrote:

@DrTsKoul, presuming your normalization is 100% equals max of 2012, I'm getting 25.7% decline since, for June 3. The regional percentages shown in your chart also differ slightly for what my abacus beats out. Where am I wrong?

Maybe it's because Baffin and 2 more are not included in the chart?

-- Rob

DrTskoul

Rob, yes and yes.

The normalization is done with respect to the Northern Hemisphere maximum after 4/4 (when I started playing with the data).

Seke Rob

OK, copy/paste from March 22 max to April 4 inclusive [for verification], noting my system is comma decimal. Space delimited:

2012082 15821891,32 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 926035,81 574728,21 670882,82 1716799,93 853214,25 1259802,23 3195635,68 1220877,94 55676,3 1279593,31 0 9834,11
2012083 15709276,27 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 921784,93 574888,13 652711,83 1700903,14 853214,25 1260490,44 3198877,56 1177216,11 51754,16 1248585,55 0 9834,11
2012084 15342879,16 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 894058,88 566815,26 584013,38 1676795,39 853214,25 1260903,34 3207796,00 1039790,01 46245,29 1156332,31 0 8757,62
2012085 15347670,80 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 905504,58 562079,85 584370,59 1651450,89 853214,25 1260903,34 3207796,00 1038678,98 48144,68 1173592,12 0 10090,16
2012086 15405401,90 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 913356,69 586891,82 616594,50 1662945,03 853214,25 1260903,34 3207479,44 1021113,44 52021,81 1169017,9 0 10018,33
2012087 15436752,76 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 914070,21 582076,95 620666,66 1647235,37 853214,25 1260903,34 3205517,55 1053637,59 52021,81 1186860,42 0 10018,33
2012088
2012089
2012090 15493103,77 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 925075,47 578233,07 654635,63 1565819,64 853214,25 1260903,34 3195356,02 1135219,43 51384,57 1213820,08 0 8911,99
2012091 15435531,10 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 919628,68 554467,91 633435,44 1540265,21 853214,25 1260903,34 3201879,07 1146852,86 57997,01 1216062,6 0 8911,99
2012092 15370640,78 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 915638,20 566201,87 641882,88 1511081,73 853214,25 1260903,34 3200392,36 1135262,44 53862,38 1182062,38 0 8226,23
2012093 15463400,63 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 909880,47 600612,96 679297,42 1505234,72 853214,25 1260903,34 3222419,93 1137263,8 55352,85 1197862,02 0 8226,23
2012094 15461114,94 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 903232,17 606588,34 678460,93 1495386,86 853214,25 1260903,34 3214223,69 1149661,64 53434,73 1204650,13 0 8226,23
2012095 15448022,16 1070444,98 966006,16 1087137,23 897844,80 903667,81 608106,64 699904,86 1483421,03 853214,25 1260903,34 3216183,04 1148469,7 53836,86 1178955,76 0 8226,23

Baltic (not Baffin), Yellow and Cook is what's absent in your chart. Day 88/89 escaped me (is what you get if you don't pull MASIE data rigidly at least once every 28 days during winter. Still planning to write to them and see if they'd oblige me in sending their full daily history.

-- Rob

Seke Rob

NSIDC has their May data up (not yet their report), so plotted the combined extent and area:

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIASIEMay.png

My infallible "Eyeball Mark II" sees a twitch of recovery ;>), although... that separation of the extent and area lines do not pose for hope. Think I'll go and look to check for the May West is still operational.

My version of "concentration" by month http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/ArcticSIA-SIERatio2.png has a certain curve to the feb-apr period at that. Predictions for August... can it get worse?

-- Rob

DrTskoul

@Seke Rob

Thanks for the data. 26.1% NH loss for days 82 - 157

Seke Rob

IJIS/JAXA "älmost" had a century, after prior day correction:

5th 11292813
6th 11197969

One poster predicted the < 11M step being scaled before June 10... it's getting there: http://bit.ly/IJISMD

-- Rob

http://bit.ly/IJISMD

Bob Wallace

Are there any Arctic albedo trend maps on line?

dorlomin

"Huge differences from one day to the next, practically everywhere, Bering, Barents, Laptev, Hudson, you name it."

The arctic has woken up in the past couple of days. Bearing you expect it given its slightly overstayed. Hudson Bay is the one that catches the eye.

Neven

The arctic has woken up in the past couple of days.

Yes, but I'm not seeing it getting translated in the numbers, either at IJIS or CT.

BTW, I'll be doing a short post on the latest NSIDC report tomorrow, but noticed this at the end of the report:

The ice cover in the southern Beaufort Sea is also substantially broken up, with many individual ice floes instead of a consolidated pack. This makes the ice in this region vulnerable to enhanced melt during summer, as the sun rises higher in the sky and the dark open water areas between the floes readily absorb solar energy.

I have been noticing this for the last couple of days on the LANCE-MODIS satellite images (not only in the Beaufort Sea, but also the East Siberian Sea, and less so in other places). The same was happening in the Beaufort Sea in 2010, but this year seems more extensive for the time being.

I remember 2010 being a weird year with holes showing up in the middle of the ice pack. I was expecting the same last year, but it didn't come about. Perhaps this year?

Anyway, still a bit strange to see it in the Beaufort Sea, where I expected the ice to be stronger. Maybe it is stronger and therefore doesn't become slushy?

L. Hamilton

"Yes, but I'm not seeing it getting translated in the numbers, either at IJIS or CT."

DMI has been going down this month, though. By about 90k/day 6/1 through 6/6.

Neven

That's true, Larry. And NSIDC extent is also pointing downwards some more. But I wonder when we get to see the effect on CT and/or IJIS.

BTW, there is no fast ice in Vilkitsky Strait.

Kris

The Bering Sea is reverting to "normal" state at Warpspeed ...

L. Hamilton

On the DMI chart,
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
30% extent seems to have passed that visual bottleneck when most years appear pretty similar. Entering the next phase of widening spread, 6/7/2012 is more than 140k below previous low years.

Seke Rob

Which ever way the wind blowed, IJIS/JAXA had the lowest prior day adjustment since starting watching this year... just +47k, which held the total below 11MKm2 and a solid century, that is near sure to hold would a second adjustment be necessary.

The Jan1-To date anomaly is now 119KKm2 above the JAXA 2003-2011 average, in ranking spot 7, with a YTD avg of 1.3226MKm2, where the day ranking was spot 5. Gloves are off now though.

-- Rob

Neven

IJIS also has a huge preliminary drop for today's date (over 250K). CT also had a century break.

And I don't know about you guys, but my gut tells me that the Nares ice bridge is going to break up within a week. There's a small polynya real close to it, and at the edges where the ice meets coast small pieces have already broken off.

Last year the ice bridge disintegrated on June 17th (which was considered late at the time). In fact, I'm surprised it hasn't broken up yet this year.

Neven

It occurred to me a while ago that one negative feedback developing because of the Arctic death spiral could be an increase in phytoplankton blooms. The ICESCAPE results with regards to blooms under the sea ice showing up everywhere in the media (see the ASI newsfeed in the right hand bar) show this is very much a possible negative feedback (sucking CO2 out of the air). This piece in The Capitol Column is explicitly about that. Interesting stuff (might blog about it, but am busy with other stuff.

Bob Wallace

Doesn't the bloom darken the water and decrease albedo/increase heat absorption?

While longer term additional phytoplankton might absorb/sequester carbon is it likely it would significantly affect current melting?

400ppm CO2 was recently recorded in the Arctic. That's higher than what is being recorded further south. Based on higher Arctic CO2 it doesn't seem like the little boogers are eating enough carbon to stop the current melting.

How efficiently does cold water absorb atmospheric CO2 compared to warmer water?

Seems like the Arctic would have much less opportunity to absorb CO2 being covered with ice a good portion of the year.

I read the article. I was left with questions.

michael sweet

CO2 is much more soluble in warm water. That makes the pH lower in the arctic than in the tropics. As the ocean warms it will absorb less CO2.

michael sweet

Typo: CO2 is more soluble in cold water. Sorry.

Neven

I'll turn the bloom-negative feedback into a blog post later today.

Big drops for the 8th, 173K (CT) and 160K (IJIS). CT is number 1 now (just 369 km2 in front of 2008), IJIS 6th position (out of 8). For the 2005-2012 period, of course.

L. Hamilton

Although DMI decline has slowed down the past two days, it remains on 6/9 the lowest for this date.

Lagging a few days, CT has been dropping as DMI did earlier. On 6/7 CT is also lowest for this date.

Peter Ellis

Only a small revision for yesterday's IJIS figure, it still stands as almost a double century.

L. Hamilton

"For the 2005-2012 period, of course."

The short time series is a limitation of DMI as well as IJIS. From other datasets, however, we can be pretty sure that if ice is below 2005, it's below 1972-2004 (and probably much longer) as well.
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/longterm

Seke Rob
Big drops for the 8th, 173K (CT) and 160K (IJIS). CT is number 1 now (just 369 km2 in front of 2008), IJIS 6th position (out of 8). For the 2005-2012 period, of course.

Is there another place to see CT values, as the files I fetch such as http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
has [as of this minute] latest as 7th, with an anomaly hike of 122k, but actual changing about 51KKm2? This is area, not aware of CT data published for extent.

-- Rob

Peter Ellis

Rob: That's the right file. Second column is actual (drops by 173k), third column is average (drops by 51k), first column is anomaly (drops by 122k).

Seke Rob

OK, well 2012.4357 calculated for me as day 159 [June 7]... maybe that leap year thing again. See indeed to have looked at the base difference rather than the actual... what it's an day ;P

Thx

-- Rob

Seke Rob

BTW, MASIE plummeted 247KKm2 from day 160 to 161 (9th). Looks like Barentsz took a nose dive as did Kara, to place the sources... slivery ice that was left or wind or both.

The spaghetti chart I've sized up and backfilled the data to December 2010 [crandles origin], so the rise and fall of 2 years can be seen. Legend was expanded to add columns for change of last year and the percent change since max.

http://bit.ly/MASIEA

Neven

Rob, I believe that 2012.4357 is actually June 8th. I was reading through some blog posts from last year (never hurts), and Artful Dodger explains the deal with CT SIA dating here.

If you go to the CT interactive chart and hover over the 2011 trend line on day 159 you get 9.47454 km2. That corresponds with 2011.4357 in the data file.

Day 159 is June 8th in 2011. Because of the leap year June 8th is day 160 this year. So yeah, I think it's that dreadful leap year.

Did I get this right? I have had to change my spreadsheets a couple of times because of this, and do not feel like doing it again. :-(

L. Hamilton

"CO2 is much more soluble in warm water. That makes the pH lower in the arctic than in the tropics. As the ocean warms it will absorb less CO2."

Michael, I think you meant to write that CO2 is more soluble in *cold* water, hence the lower Arctic pH, etc.

Seke Rob

Have convinced myself to accept that 0.1616 at CT is 28th Feb (59th record in the year of a non leap year) and .1614 in a leap year, per the CT DB, which strongly suggests that they use a 365 divisor on non leap years and 366 in leap years. This is with their record kicking of on 1979.0027, end of Jan.1

-- Rob

Account Deleted

CT -266k! Isolation from the rest!

dorlomin

Seems like everyone has had an "in the order of" 250k in one day over the past few days.

Espen Olsen

The ice of the coast of North East Greenland is being crushed in a big way at the moment:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c03.2012163.aqua.250m

Espen Olsen

And soon the Kimmirut ice will open up too!
http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

Seke Rob

MASIE by contrast calculated that they'd overdone the Barentsz loss of day 161 for 129KKm2 so put 69KKm2 back for day 162. Whilst, on Bering they're in consensus, and all the rest moving, the net impact of the Barentsz adjustment on the total worked out as 5K plus.

Interesting in all of the 16 regional curves is, that this winter the central basin never held to it's max fill for a prolonged period [blue curve at top of http://bit.ly/MASIE ]. Compare to prior year.

dorlomin

The area of the United Kingdom is 244,820 km.

While the algorithms the different teams use means the ice loss is not exact but it appears we lost more ice in one day that the area of the UK.

Neven

I've put up a new 'button' in the right hand bar which I called 'Climate Disclaimer'. It contains a bit of info on who I am and why I write this blog, etc. No nude pics. ;-)

Neven

According to ECMWF conditions will start to change in 2-3 days, with a low moving in over the Central Arctic, pushing away the high over the Beaufort Sea, and basically ending the perfect set-up for ice transport via the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream. It will probably slow down SIE and SIA decrease.

Matthew Opitz

To get an idea of just what sort of bad shape the arctic ice is in this year, compare with 2007:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=09&fy=2007&sm=06&sd=09&sy=2012

Specifically, 2012 looks worse than 2007 in terms of:
*Snow cover. 2007 is missing a lot of snow cover in northern Russia, northern Canada, and Labrador.
*Ice in Kara Sea (bigtime!).
*Ice in northern Barentsz Sea.
*Ice in Beaufort Sea.
*Ice in Baffin Bay.

Ice levels in Hudson Bay, Laptev Sea are comparable between the two years. 2007 has 2012 beat slightly in Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea, but not really by much anymore.

Overall, it does not look good. 2012's northern hemisphere albedo is significantly darker than 2007's at the crucial time of the year of peak sun hours.

Account Deleted

" It will probably slow down SIE and SIA decrease."
Lets hope so.

Seke Rob

Curious that what Matthew did for the 9th, I did a few days ago for the 6th, while updating the seasonal snow cover charts [using Rutgers data]. Here's Spring [March-May] and the chart that Rutgers dropped for whatever [political?] reason since a few years, Summer [June-August]. Now reflect on that, and consider that the numbers encompass Greenland, which is consistently included at 2.1MKm2 helping shore up the totals. Remove that [Rutgers publishes a column "NA minus Greenland"], and where's snow gone in the NH summer?

Whilst, the winter trend for NA and Eurasia, is none to a little uptick. No wonder with more vapor inflow and shifting jetstreams as witnessed in past few years.

-- Rob

Matthew Opitz

Nice data, Rob. Very telling trends.

In other news, that blue fast-ice in the East Siberian Sea is starting to break up.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c04.2012164.terra.250m

Neven

Well well, the easy ice is melting out extremely fast. CT reports another double century (leaving all other years in the dust), and IJIS has a century break as well (fourth spot now).

Good thing the weather is going to switch in 2-3 days.

dorlomin

Is this a record? I doubt we'd know but I cant remember anything quite like this other than late June 07 when the arctic was getting pounded.

Jim_pettit
Is this a record?

That depends. I hope you guys aren't bored by a few more stats:

--Area now stands at 8.84 million km2. This is the earliest area has dropped below 9 million km2. Both 2007 and 2011 fell through 9 million on day 166, three days later than 2012.

--It's taken just 73 days for area to fall from its maximum to below 9 million. That is by quite a margin the fastest such drop on record; the shortest previous span was 91 days (1999), while the 1979-2011 average has been 109 days.

--Over the past four days, SIA has fallen by 820k km2, the 9th largest four-day drop on record.

--Three-day drop: 672k, the 8th largest on record.

--Two-day drop: 499k, the 12th largest on record.

Apocalypse4Real

One way of understanding the SIA decline is the surface temp anomaly for the NH. This is from 9 June.

Neven

A4R, I hyperlinked that big link of yours.

I hope you guys aren't bored by a few more stats

Never, Jim!

Seke Rob

MASIE June 11 just out for day 163, Bering and Hudson remain on (near sole) holdouts. Net decline of the NH from previous day: 121.1KKm2 [no hiding the "decline"]. More of note than anything. MASIE 2012 is now 'only' 12K above 2011 for same day. IJIS cant stay behind [by tradition]

-- Rob

L. Hamilton

DMI mean loss so far this month has been -90k/day, the steepest in their data for this time of year (2011 second steepest at -68k/day).

Artful Dodger

... and CT SIA has dropped 1.1 M km^2 in the last 4 days, an average of 273 k per day. The Recovery continues ...

Jon Torrance

Maybe my browsers are withholding the latest data from me but are you sure about that, Lodger?

Jim_pettit
CT SIA has dropped 1.1 M km^2 in the last 4 days, an average of 273 k per day.

Hmmm. As Jon alluded to, I don't see even a single drop this year larger than Sunday's 266k km2. I see 820k km2 in the last four days, for an average of about 205k km2 per day. Meanwhile, it's taken 10 days for area to drop by the 1.1 M km2 you mentioned, a daily average of about 110k.

idunno

Hi all,

As far as I can tell, looking at CT area data, this is not only the lowest figure for the date - the anomaly is greater than at any date between day .0000 (Jan 1st) and the latest date reported .4410 (approx Jun 10th).

This seems to me perhaps significant.

Neven

And another century break for IJIS SIE. 2012 has had the largest daily drops for 7 days now, and takes 3rd position in the 2005-2012 playing field.

Wipneus

IJIS update: high melting rate continues, (likely) century break for the 12th.

idunno

Hi all,

I think there must be some cheating going on. 158k break today - I thought that 147 was a maximum?

Anomaly grows to -1.545M.

Jim_pettit
As far as I can tell, looking at CT area data, this is not only the lowest figure for the date - the anomaly is greater than at any date between day .0000 (Jan 1st) and the latest date reported .4410 (approx Jun 10th).

This seems to me perhaps significant.

I agree. With yesterday's decrease of another 157k, we've seen not just the sixth largest four-day drop in the CT record and the largest four-day drop so early in the year, but one of only a small handful of such drops among the top 100 or so to have taken place before the last week of June.

(FWIW, the five-day span ending yesterday saw a loss of 979k km2, the 9th largest five-day drop on record. The largest was 1.13 million in July of 1988.)

Seke Rob

A small summary of key data for JAXA, http://bit.ly/JAXDSM . If not already mentioned, today indicates that the new record holder of melt "to-date" from Max till the 13th could become... 2012. Provisional loss from March 17 till now, 4,153,750 Km2, 20K over 2010. Spot 2 is locked in for now, where 2010 lost extent on average 55.9K per day since max though June 12.

The one area I dont see IJIS getting 2012 into 1st spot, where it's now 7th, is the YTD average extent. Now 13.16MKm2, approx, 340KKm2 behind on 2011 and that one ranks 2 after 2006.

Scraping the stats barrel ;P

-- Rob

Espen Olsen

Report from Jøkulbugt North East Greenland: I bet the fast ice in the Bay Joekel will not survice this summer, the "killing" turquiose color is creeping in all over the place at todays modis images Aqua/Terra.

Seke Rob

To top of the stats, MASIE changed, downward, by another 153KKm2, to 10.86MKm2, now 126KKm2 below 2011 for this day. Looking at their NH chart, can't seem to find a 'total' chart for the years they've covered. Would have been a nice 'overall' impression.

Neven

Those bar graphs will come in handy again in Agust/September, Larry! Nice that you have DMI extent now to replace UB SIE.

L. Hamilton

Ah, one more graph, a line plot that isolates the daily CT SIA comparison between 2012 and the previous record-setter, 2011:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_2011_2012.png

Espen Olsen

When watching the SSMIS Sea Ice Maps,(after the calibration) it looks like we are having a Heavy Meltdown soon, I only disagree with the situation in North East Greenland!

Neven

I think I'm still seeing big day-to-day changes on the UB SIC maps. Will these translate in more big drops? Has July already started?

Nah, that big low over the Beaufort Sea will probably slow things down.

Neven

And another IJIS SIE century break...

Neven

And CT SIA has a 130K drop as well...

L. Hamilton

The judges agree. DMI -102k on 6/13.

Neven

Yup, even the judges from Norway.

Seke Rob

Would the provisional number be hard, IJIS is lowest for the 14th. With an anticipating 60-65K adjustment for the final, IJIS moves to 2nd lowest with 10,182,000 for the 14th, where 2011 stood at 10,177,969... a nose length. What a 'terrible' winter it was as the globe is cooling.

idunno

...and the CT anomaly (-1.617M) is now the greatest it has ever been on this side of the summer solstice, with the exception of in 2007, when the large anomaly just about coincided with the solstice.

Apocalypse4Real

A few anecdotal points:

The rapid snow melt is boosting record highs in Siberia. Krasnoyarsk has hit records the last three days, (26, 28 and 26 C),and is expecting more the next three days. See: http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;ws=33842

BBC provides picture proof:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-18439952

Salekhard Airport, Yamalo-Nenets, Russia is expected to hit 28C tomorrow.

In regard to the NWP, Arctic Bay, Canada has been mostly above freezing since 31 May. It is 5C now and is expected to generally remain above freezing through the 24th. See: http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;ws=28105

Farther north, in Eureka, it is 13C and they are expecting rain. It is going to remain above freezing for the next 10 days. See: http://weatherspark.com/#!dashboard;ws=27709

The forecast is similar at Alert, Canada.

My point is that we are going to witness continued, rapidd melt in the Arctic through the next 10 days. The record temps and rain will accelerate ice melt.


Seke Rob

Always last in for the regular number dose, MASIE aligned with a -129.5k. Whilst pretty much all regions had small losses, the comparison to last year had it's advantage drop from -126K to -24K lower than 2011. Mostly going to Hudson, Laptev and Chukchi. Baffin's big hole maintained thanks to the discussed holding of the ice-bridges in the summer feeding straits.

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