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Neven

Frankd 1977, check the ASI Graphs page, top right. There you have CT SIA numbers, and the recent NSIDC SIE numbers.

As for a blog post on statistics: I don't know enough statistics for that. Maybe if I have time this weekend, I could, just like Anthony Watts, learn everything I need to know to write a paper. But I don't think so. ;-)

But I will do some sort of countdown in the ASI updates at a certain point, along the lines of: If 2012 loses as much ice as 2007, etc...

Mike

On the subject on Manhattan transafers, I'd have to say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Couldn%27t_Be_Hotter

Jim_pettit
Frankd 1977 wrote: The SIA as of today is only 1.18 million km2 higher that the record low of last year. With roughly 40 days of melt left, I think it will come in below 2.8 million km2. Actually, if August melt averages 39,300 km2 per day, the record would be tied at the end of August!

Neven: I think this would make an excellent topic for you next update (hint hint!) :)

Neven wrote: As for a blog post on statistics: I don't know enough statistics for that. Maybe if I have time this weekend, I could, just like Anthony Watts, learn everything I need to know to write a paper. But I don't think so. ;-)

But I will do some sort of countdown in the ASI updates at a certain point, along the lines of: If 2012 loses as much ice as 2007, etc...

I've actually been maintaining precisely those stats (for SIA only; I'll do the SIE version during the freezin' season). I calculate for each year in the record how much more ice disappeared from the current day down to the minimum for that year. I then compare those numbers with the current area, and extrapolate what the minimum would be for the current year should each year's finale be repeated this year. Based on yesterday's numbers (as CT hasn't yet updated), I can tell you that 24 years in the record, and eight of the past ten, had finales that, if repeated this year, would lead to a new record. I can also tell you that the largest post-.5781 finale (1989) would bring on a minimum of 2.215 million km2 (while the smallest--1997--would result in 3.417).

If I have time over the next few days, I'll see if I can't graph this; it shouldn't be too difficult.

idunno

Hi all,

CT figures:

3.92 area

anomaly -1.978

Shitbiscuits!

L. Hamilton

CT area on 8/1 is lower than the annual minimum for any year before 2007.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

L. Hamilton

Correction, that should be CT area for 7/31. We're several days ahead of last year in passing this milestone.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/08/the-modern-area-of-ice.html

Jim_pettit

...and I spoke too soon; CT just updated, and we have another monster drop, this time about 170k km2. A few things, then:

--First, an update to the salient paragraph in my prior comment: based on today's numbers, I can tell you that 28 years in the record, and nine of the past ten, had finales that, if repeated this year, would lead to a new record. I can also tell you that the largest post-.5808 finale (1989) would bring on a minimum of 2.192 million km2 (while the smallest--1997--would result in 3.265);

--Area is now at 3.915 million km2, the earliest it's ever fallen below the 4 million mark;

--Only six years in the record have seen area drop below 4 million. It's only been 124 days since maximum was reached, by far the shortest amount of time that's taken. The average has been 157 days, and the shortest prior to this year was last year's 147 days;

--SIA is now 271k km2 less than it was on this day last year, and 355k km2 less than it was on this day in 2007;

--2012 area is still in first place for the 33rd consecutive day, and 49 of the last 54. (As noted in the previous bullet point, 2011 is in 2nd place, and 2007 is in 3rd.)

Okay, that's enough out of me for now...

crandles

What is this going to do Monday?


Seke Rob

The Dutch have the expression "Op het vinken touw zitten", in one word, scooped. Makes it the 6th year below 4M [Jim Pettit in overtime], and 85% of sat years ending higher at their annual minimum than day ~213 of the year.

Click: http://bit.ly/CTAR01
Click: http://bit.ly/CTAANM
Click: http://bit.ly/CTNHMn

Seke Rob

And CT SIA hitting nearly 2 and 3 standard deviation again on the rolling year and current day metric: http://bit.ly/CTAR02

Greenland, great clear images from DMI-MODIS of Lincoln/Kennedy/Kane for the 30th

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/20120730TERR.jpg
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kennedy/20120730TERR.jpg
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20120730TERR.jpg

Breaking up is no longer hard to do... The To Nares Speedway.

idunno

What a difference a hundred years makes:

http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Pdf/1912/1912_08.pdf

(An interesting series of maps: you can get maps back at least as far as 1901 by changing both dates in the address-bar)

H/T Steven Goddard

Seke Rob

Idunno, this is the map directory index for easy pickins: http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Pdf/

Neven

The big changes on the UB SIC maps from a few days back didn't translate into big SIA losses after all.

I guess I should have been more patient. That lag is longer than I thought. Shitbiscuits indeed.

Neven

What is this going to do Monday?

Strangelove

Strange highs and strange lows
That's how my ice goes

Neven

I see quite a bit ice flashing back on the UB SIC maps, so SIA (and SIE) will probably slow down again.

IJIS SIE dropped fast in 2007 in the first week of August, so 2012 will probably play catch-up again for the rest of the month.

dabize

Hi Neven, check your email.

Frankd 1977

I am REALLY excited about the SIA minimum for 2012! The past 2 days have seen a decline of over 320,000 km2 (a "monster drop" as Jim Pettit called it).
As it is, 2012 is in 6th place for lowest SIA minimum in the past 34 years. The average daily SIA reduction for the past week was 72,800 km2. If the melt rate is half of that for August, a new record low will occur before the end of the month.
Jim Pettit: I am looking for daily measurements of SIA for the past few decades. I want the daily numbers and not graphs. Can you point me in the right direction?

crandles

The advice was correct go to the graphs page and look at the text links in top right box. 1st is NSIDC extent, and 5th line is CT area.

Frankd 1977

Thank you crandles :)

Jim_pettit

Well, I found some time, so went ahead and drafted out the graph I spoke of above that shows the SIA decrease from the current day through the minimum for every year in the record (1979-2011), overlaid by a line showing how much area needs to drop this year in order to set a new record. As you can see, "finales" similar to all but five years in the record would result in a new record minimum this year.

GRAPH: Arctic Sea Ice Area Annual Decrease from Current Day Through Minimum

The graph will, of course, be updated daily until the beginning of melt season. And feedback is appreciated, as always...

Seke Rob

"...until the beginning of melt season."... that's going to be a long winter ;>)

Frankly, I'm not quite following your chart. Is it to indicate the amount of melt in prior years did from current day in year till their minimum?

crandles

>"shows the SIA decrease from the current day through the minimum for every year in the record ... feedback is appreciated"

Now we just want ;o)

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q210/Sekerob/Climate/CT_SIA_Annual_Minima.png

with the in progress bar broken up into a stacked bar so we get levels for:

Current year minus amount by which 17% of years reduce area from now to minimum
Current year minus amount by which 50% of years reduce area from now to minimum
Current year minus amount by which 83% of years reduce area from now to minimum
Current year as at now

(and the same for NSIDC extent ;o) ;o) )

Paul Klemencic

crandles: Exactly. Starting over the weekend, and then really intensifying on Monday, there will be a low centered over the Beaufort side of the CA Basin. The low is forecast to persist through mid-week, although it spreads out and moves around some.

Typical wind/wave patterns associated with low would push Chukchi ice into the Beaufort; and E. Siberian ice into the Chukchi; and CAB ice adjoining the Laptev into the E. Siberian region, opening the 'Laptev Bite'.

And a lot of the floes will melt out, or be greatly reduced in size. We could lose over 700k sq km by next Wednesday/Thursday on this side of the pack.

Paul Klemencic

crandles: Exactly. Starting over the weekend, and then really intensifying on Monday, there will be a low centered over the Beaufort side of the CA Basin. The low is forecast to persist through mid-week, although it spreads out and moves around some.

Typical wind/wave patterns associated with low would push Chukchi ice into the Beaufort; and E. Siberian ice into the Chukchi; and CAB ice adjoining the Laptev into the E. Siberian region, opening the 'Laptev Bite'.

And a lot of the floes will melt out, or be greatly reduced in size. We could lose over 700k sq km by next Wednesday/Thursday on this side of the pack.

Seke Rob
...with the in progress bar broken up into a stacked bar so we get levels for:
3 times the last week had a Taxi Driver flash back... "You Talkin' to Me?" [find it on YouTube for some stronger language by a young De Niro]. Give me the 17/50/83% data and can whip it out in a jiffy, but you surely would like that to be recomputed/chart updated daily/frequently... so let me commit to doing this, to prevent duplicate effort. [It's an interesting visualization challenge for Excel]. I'll do a rough up shortly... in the more [is less effort afterwards] philosophy.
Seke Rob

OK, so here a rough up for 17 and 50% with dummy values. http://bit.ly/CTNHMn

Yvan Dutil

Crandles, a spagetti plot made from this year trajectory combined with all the previous decay trajectory would be visulay interesting.

Neven

2012 lower than all minimums before 2007

Thanks for all the great graphs everyone!

Wipneus


PIOMAS August update: I have updated my graphics at ArctischePinguin for the July data:

Monthly data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd2.png

Daily data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4.png

Daily data with a "prediction" based on exponential trend:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd4-1.png

Note that the 2012 volume is already 1 stdev below the minimum based on
linear trend expected for September:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/piomas-trnd7.png

AmbiValent

Thanks Wipneus.

Interesting: both 2010 and 2011 were below the trend line in summer, then returned to it later in the year - only 2010 kept its distance to the trend line until after the minimum, while in 2011 the melt slowed down. Which way will 2012 go?

Andy Lee Robinson
On the subject on Manhattan transfers, I'd have to say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Couldn%27t_Be_Hotter

Mike, nice find! :)

Looks like this current Manhattan is now transferring out of the fjord rather rapidly at around 2km per day.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78749

That sounds quick - what is the current pushing it out?
River-like meltwater flow?
Thermohaline?
Oceanic currents?
Wind?

Artful Dodger

Hi Andy.

In general, iceberg's move with their embedded ocean currents, and laugh at the wind.

Up A Lazy River...

Kris

Record temperature at Ilulissat today. 17 °C. Preceeded by a near-record week.

Kris

Despite "the storm" seems to take all of our attention, me thinks also this has to be noted:

Very unsimilar to 2007, Franz-Josef-Land has been detached completely from the central ice shelf now

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