Northwest Passage as good as open

A little over six weeks have passed since I wrote the last blog post on the Northwest Passage (NWP): Still chock-full of ice. Since that post the NWP was hidden most of the time by clouds, no telling really what was going on down there. In the last couple of days I noticed on the sea ice concentration maps as put out by the University of Bremen that ice concentration in most of the NWP was very low. This has now been confirmed by satellite images:

I don't think it will be declared open officially yet. There is still some ice rubble here and there in Parry Strait and Lancaster Sound, and ice in the Beaufort Sea is still blocking McClure Strait for now. But the rubble will clear and the ice will pull back, making the NWP navigable for the fifth time in six years (previously in 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011). With the Northern Sea Route almost open as well, we witness yet another summer in which both Arctic sea routes have opened up. This was a very rare occurence in the past, but has already become almost normal in current times.

This year's opening up of the NWP is quite early for the time of year, which is surprising, because the passage was still full of fast ice only one month and a half ago. However, as mentioned at the time the concentration of multi-year ice in the region was well below the historical average and although seasonal first-year ice had thickened a bit more than usual because of an anomalously cold winter, it would likely clear during the melt season.

Temperatures have been about 3 °C above average in the past six weeks over most of the passage and that doesn't help either:

The ice in the channels and straits between the Queen Elizabeth is also breaking up. More on that later.

Comments

[Bob Wallace]

The average high at Resolute - the weather station center/north of the NWP - is 4C.

The current temperature there is just under 14C and it has been much higher at times over the last few weeks. At Sachs Harbor, at the west end of the NWP, I noticed the temp hitting 27C a couple of days ago.

It's really been cooking in that area for a while. Due to lack of snow on the surrounding land?

[SteveMDFP]

Actually, I think it's better than "as good as open." Even if McClure Strait itself is blocked by ice, that extremely narrow channel to the "left" of McClure Strait is "Prince of Wales Strait," according to the map at arctic.io:
http://www.arctic.io/zoom/XpKT/0.506339;0.532550;1.012468/Arctic-Map

I think that counts.

[Janne Tuukkanen]

New 30 day ice forecasts issued by Environment Canada:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCanQry.cfm?subID=2008&Lang=eng

If I read correctly, they are predicting open water or "open drift first-year ice" along the whole route about mid August.

[Bob Wallace]

Jim provided me a link to daily temps at Sachs Harbor. Looks like the highest recorded for the month was 22C, not 27C. The 81F/27C reported on the WonderMap must have been off a bit.

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=10076&Month=7&Day=30&Year=2012&timeframe=2

[Colin Maycock]

The two buoys in the area above the Parry Strait are showing a fair bit of movement in the last 2 days. It may not be long before we see the export of ice from the AB to the CA again.

[Philip]

I just looked back at the MODIS pictures.between day 185 and 192 breakup at both ends. on day 193 the ice is still one mass, on day 199 it is cracked everywhere and on 202 it is fully fragmented. make a nice gif if you have the time Neven.

[Arcticio]

http://www.arctic.io/observations/32/2012-07-31/6-N73.5-W110/NW-Passage

Above shows the passage from right to left using a different projection with North America at the bottom. The Archipelago looks pretty navigable, the unknown part is everything North of Alaska covered by clouds. The ice desk does not report SIF:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php?img=ice

3 days older are these close ups:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/icegraphics.php?img=VIIRS_28Jul12_2005Z_true_color_East_of_Point_Barrow

Hopefully, we do not end up with a record low extend, but passages still not completely navigable. Sceptics will say was only half-record.

[Phil263]

With the Northern Sea Route almost open as well...

There is still lots of ice in the ESS and a lot of it is over 75% concentration. Wrangel Island unlike 2010 and 2011 is still completely ice bound. As one comment (Sorry I can't remember who it was) said last week or so, we may have sea ice that looks like it's going to melt before the end of summer but won't. Remember the arm in the same area in 2010 that never disappeared. August: the clock is now ticking away towards the end of the melt season...

[Chris Biscan]

Phil-

It remains to be seen, but the ice out there now vs 2010 is way thinner now.

[Mike Constable]

Thought I could see ice on top of the n-pole cams melt pools yesterday? The sun is beginning to lose its strength and fresh water freezes at 0C, while the bottom may still be melting a degree or so colder.

[Artful Dodger]

Yamal and her sister ship opened the NSR over 6 weeks ago.

[Bob Wallace]

That's a plow through, not a melt opening.

[Kris]

Mike wrote

... could see ice on top of the n-pole cams melt pools yesterday

To me it looked (and still looks) more as the bottom of the pond of which it's water had been drained away.

At NOAA cam 2 you even can see the drain channel at bottom right of the image.

At the same cam, you can see too the surveyor's rods are pending each day a bit more over ...

[Espen Olsen]

USCGC Healy is on the move again, are we going to see her in the Polar Region this season? Would be nice with some web cam images!

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=NEPP

[Al Rodger]

Using a historical precident, I'm with SteveMDFP on the Prince of Wales Strait counting as a valid NWP route. After all, this is where McClure first got stuck (or more politely, "wintered") and from where he identified the existance of the NWP. It is true he "wintered" twice more in McClure Strait before being rescued, but that was from the East and so, after a fourth "wintering" on the way home, on this basis he tried to claim the prize for the first achievement of the NWP. (There was £10,000 awarded but that was for the discovery of the route, all a bit controversial with the death of the entire Franklin expidition.)

[Frankd 1977]

The Prince of Wales Strait is open, so commercial traffic in the area will want to use it. From there it looks like open water all the way to Baffin Bay.
The major point is the opening of the NWP did not occur from 1972-2006 (I am told official records only go back to 1972). Now its happened 5 times in the past 6 years with this year being approx 3 weeks early.

[Daniel Bailey]

Transit history of the NW Passage:
3 up to 1950
around 155 from 1951 to 2000
at least 120 from 2001 to 2010

Detailed here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/StRoch.html

[Neven]

Thanks, Daniel. That will come in handy when the NWP and NSR are both fully open in a couple of weeks.

[HenkL]

Some sailors en route for the passage. See:

http://northwestpassage2012.blogspot.nl/

http://www.nordovestitalia.org/blog.php

http://www.sailblogs.com/member/tokimata2012/

http://belzebub2.com/home?lang=en

http://blog.jonathanadventuresailing.com/

[Colin Maycock]

It looks like bouy 88385 has started to move towards the Parry strait. Bouy 735050 has also started to move towards the Nare strait.

[FrankD]

Didn't someone call this a week ago, just as the melt through was getting started?

Oh, yeah. It was that guy...

;-)