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R. Gates

The section certainly looks detached and may even reattach with the right winds and conditions though I think it more likely to now melt out completly before the September low. As far as what this storm has done overall, I will be waiting until tomorrow at the earliest to make a full assessment as the numbers will be bouncing around quite a bit. Up next, a mid-August dipolle?

L. Hamilton

DMI extent bounced back more than a century today, adjustment or just spreading I don't know. It's taken a wild ride this week. Here's something new, a graph of 5-day average change over the whole time series:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_DMI_5day_delta.png

So the number remains below their annual minimum for all but two years:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_DMI_min_to_date.png

Nightvid Cole

Looks like we may not only break, but shatter, the 2007 record in September:

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/2012/estimate.png

Apocalypse4Real

As noted in Arctic Storm - part 3, we see alot of warm air being drawn from Russia into the Arctic.

There is another factor in this flow. The smoke and particulates from the Russian fires keep being pumped into the Arctic.

To give a scale of the problem, "The worst fires were in the thinly populated Krasnoyarsk region, where blazes are expanding and cover some 1.4 million square hectares,.... More than 210,000 workers and 45,000 vehicles are participating in Russia's forest fire control effort. Also deployed are 108 planes and helicopters, many operating as water bombers.

In 142 sorties on Sunday, water bomber aircraft dropped some two million tonnes of water on fires across the country, the MES statement said."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/hundreds-of-forest-fires-rage-in-russia/story-fn3dxix6-1226444255507

One result: Methane readings are up across Siberia.

L. Hamilton

While the floor dropped out at DMI, CT area did nothing so exciting. Even so, 2012 has dropped below the annual minimum reached in 2009, and increasingly far below any prior to 2007.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

The CT anomaly continues down into new territory for this time of year.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_anomaly_to_date.png

Wayne Kernochan

Minor eyeball notes:

The break-off also appears to mean that the "Northeast Passage" is now open. Hey, you've got to go a little north to get around the detached piece, but ...

The area of greatest concentration in the maps appears to be moving towards Fram Strait.

There's another chunk on the East Siberia side that appears to be surrounded by low concentration and might also detach.

Areas of low concentration are moving close to 85 degrees North on the East Siberian side.

Is it possible the storm will simply push much of the Basin ice across the Pole to Fram to melt out?

L. Hamilton

No such drama regarding CT area, but that continues down. Now below the annual minimum reached in all but 4 previous years:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.png

While the anomaly stays in new territory for this season:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/Climate/sea_ice_N_anomaly_to_date.png

L. Hamilton

Sorry for double post, Firefox hung up and I thought the first didn't get sent.

Artful Dodger

I don't believe anyone has asked this question yet. How will the intense, widespread low sea level pressure of this storm affect methane clathrates? Will the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 'burst the bubble' and bring massive amounts of methane out of solution?

Twemoran

Apocalypse4Real

'One result: Methane readings are up across Siberia.'

Have you a link to the Siberian data.

I've been trying to get some numbers from the Arctic, particularly since Barrow quit recording the in situ data back in June. The flask data is good, but has gaps.

Terry

dabize

Hi Dodger,

Not an expert, but that won't shut me up.

I would think that the low SLP itself would be insufficient to get methane hydrates "out of their shell" so to speak, but I can see 2 other factors that deserve consideration by those more expert than me here:

1) Increased convective warming of shallow seabeds in places like the Kara, Laptev and ESAS. This might (conceivably) hasten the erosion of permafrost that has been occurring of thousands of years since the inundation of these sites between 15,000 and 8,000 years ago.

2) Increased sea surface dynamics caused by severe storminess over an ice free surface?? I haven't seen a consideration of this factor yet, but in very shallow places such as the ESAS, the changes in depth caused by large waves (5+ meters) would have a substantial, if very transient effect on the pressure that (along with cold temperatures) keeps methane in its clathrates below the sea floor. This suggestion risks being ridiculous, but as far as I know it is original.

Could methane clathrates get "the bends"??

r w Langford

Re Clathrates, here is a good reference. http://arctic-news.blogspot.ca/2012/05/striking-increase-of-methane-in-arctic.html Couldn,t get into their system as a guest will try later.

SteveMDFP

Artful Dodger asked a great question about what this storm might mean for methane release. Dabize's contribution is an interesting thought. There's a rather interesting article on arctic methane here:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/05/striking-increase-of-methane-in-arctic.html

The maps there make me wonder if the "Laptev Bite" might indeed correspond to a methane hot spot.

I'm a little skeptical that GAC-2012 has enough power to disturb sediments (though much of the East Siberian shelf is pretty darned shallow.

Regardless of sediments, though, methane solubility does increase with depth (pressure), and waters overlying those sediments are apparently saturated with methane in solution.

Dekker pointed out that ocean mixing is occurring to a surprising depth with this storm.

If deep waters saturated with methane are carried closer to the surface, that methane tends to come out of solution, like CO2 coming out of sparkling water.

I'd expect that big methane releases are already happening with this storm.

Twemoran

Yet Another Clathrate Source?

The Beaufort Sea, near the Mackenzie delta has been experiencing temperatures more normal to the Mediterranean in recent weeks. Yesterday Environment Canada was showing 3M waves riding 2M swells, and the ASS has been stirring things up.

The area is second only to the ESAS in Methane content.

Why would we not expect the buried clathrates and or gas pockets sealed by permafrost to erupt?

Terry

GeoffBeacon

I often look at the monthly AIRS methane maps here:

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/

- not that I completely understand them but the url hasn't worked for me for a week or so.

Any suggestions?

Artful Dodger

The 09 Aug 12Z surface analysis chart is out from Environment Canada.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/jac12_100.gif

Discussion:

Over the past 24 hrs, the polar low maintained it's position and strength. It's center has moved slightly West to W150, N82. Central pressure has also deepened slightly, from 974 MB to 973 MB.

The size of the storm has remained stable. In the South, the 1012 MB isobar (the outer limit of the low) still extends to the North slope of Alaska and the Canadian Arctic coast. On the opposite side, the storm still extends well beyond the North Pole.

In summary, the polar low is showing no early signs of dissipating.

dabize

Terry,

The usual argument is that the permafrost is too far down to be affected directly by current temperatures - that the only thing that can change it is the consequence of weather several thousands of years ago - slowly working its way downward. Thus any thermally based release now would be entirely coincidental, and not caused by AGW.

But pressure doesn't work that way - hence my speculation about wave dynamics and Steves most excellent observation/suggestion.

If high CH4 is already in the water in places where there is normally little mixing between the surface and the seabed, then increased emissions due to Gaagii/Haruhi/GAC2012 seem highly likely.

Normally CH4 should be rapidly oxidized to CO2 in water, but if the water has used up all its oxidizing capacity on previously emitted CH4, then, well.......

Artful Dodger

Apologies, I seem to have some browser refresh issues...

Central pressure is now 981 MB, center located at W133 N83. Size does remain similar.

So indeed, the storm is showing early signs of weakening.

dabize

BTW (and OT), I meant to thank AmbiValent for posting that great Haruhi link on the other thread, but forgot.

Made my day........

Twemoran

Dabize

I'm out the door, but will get back to you.

Check out the new feature at Arctic.io - it's a dual frame viewer that zooms both sides simultaneously. - Really Good Stuff!

Terry

Jim Williams

Jim Petit:

I stole a couple of your graphs to make the point on G+ that this is the only real news in 2012. If you've moved from Ohio to Australia I can forward the post to you, though other than the graphs all I said was that this is the only real news.

I took the graphs as images to preserve context. Later I'll lead the really interested in this direction.....

Paul Klemencic

I put this post up on Dot Earth (I hope the links work).

Here is a picture worth a thousand words:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012222.terra

What the picture shows: The r04 c04 tile from MODIS Mosaic of Arctic region pictures (assembled from photos shot from multiple passes of the satellite over the course of one day.

The tile is 1024 km on each side, The North Pole is at the bottom left corner, and the center of the storm at its most powerful was about 600 km up the left border. The broken ice pack in the top of the tile will move toward the bottom of the tile, if an Arctic Dipole Anomaly forms (as forecasted).

Here is a higher resolution shot of the same tile:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c04.2012222.terra.500m

Neven

Yeah, I have been looking at that r04 c04 tile as well. The Laptev Hole looks very, very big, and the winds pushed the ice away from Severnaya Zemlya as well.

We're probably going to see more bits and pieces every day.

Espen Olsen

Paul;

That ice is broken up within a 200 km diameter of the Pole and probably less, since the image quality in the center (N.P.) is poor.

dabize

So have I......

I have prepared a before vs after composite pic of it (212-219 vs 220-222). I got the impression that there was some loss in the area just north of Severnaya Zemlya, but not that much elsewhere. However the clouds still really obscure the comparison, so I was going to wait till tomorrow before offering it to the Intertubes........

Espen Olsen

Paul,

Correction Radius not diameter!

OldLeatherneck
Quoting GeoffBeacon:I often look at the monthly AIRS methane maps here:

ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/

- not that I completely understand them but the url hasn't worked for me for a week or so.

Any suggestions?

The last time I was able to access Dr. Yurganov's charts was Friday the 3rd. At that time, I sent a comparison chart of Northern Hemisphere methane concentration between July 2011 and July 2012 and sent it to Neven, who then made aand posted a panel for every July from 2002 2012.


Thanks to Neven, here is a link to regularly updated videos at Chris Reynold's Dosbat blog:

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/arctic-methane-airs-videos.html

There are 12 separate videos showing the annual changes from 2002 to present for each month of the year.

R. Gates

Taking a look at the sea ice area for the key Arctic basin from CT, we see that we are right at the key 2.5 million sq. km. mark, which is right at 1 million sq. km below normal:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html

I will have to confirm, but I think this is the earliest we've seen this level in the satellite record. Why I keep harping on this is that I believe that pretty much everything else is going to melt out, right down to zero, or be flushed out through the Fram, especially of course if we get the dipole anomaly to set up later next week.

How low will the Arctic Basin area go? We've now got lower concentration deeper in this area than ever, meaning more surface area being exposed to more melting with warmer water penetrating deeper into the basin. Even though the melt season is waning, this is still important.

Guesses for the Arctic Basin at minimum? 2.25 million sq. km? 2.0? Unfortunately, even less than 2.0 would not completely surprise me.

Espen Olsen

I wonder how much the overall surface, of now crushed ice from the storm, has increased and thereby the total melting surface, any qualified guess?

R. Gates

Just to follow up a bit on my last comment, if the Arctic Basin + the Greenland represent the majority of sea ice that is left come the September low, with various bits still clinging mainly to the Canadian Archipelago, and we see the Arctic basin fall to around 2.25 million sq. km, then it seems quite possible that our CT September low will be somewhere around 2.5 million sq. km. This would be a my modest guess at this point, with the range being + or - 0.5 million sq. km., so with a stronger dipole lasting longer we perhaps drop to as low as 2.0, and weather the other way takes us up to around the 2007 low.

Certainly would not have guessed this back in July...

OldLeatherneck

Questions for the experts:

1. With the probability that 2012 will result in new records for both SIE and SAI, what weather conditions will be most conducive for the melt season to extend into late September or early October?

2. When the 2012 October freeze begins, will it have the same sharp upward slope of previous years?

3. With the fractures reaching deep into the CAB, what does this portend for the 2013 melt season?

Artful Dodger

OLN: a DA (Dipole Anomaly) late in the melt season is deadly to sea ice. Winds push fragment sea ice into contact with warmer Southern water in the E. Greenland sea, and the conveyor belt spins.

R. Gates

Old Leatherneck,

Though not formerly an expert, I do know that we are rapily approaching the point at which cloudy conditions, especially low level stratocumulus in a few weesk, will favor melting longer into September and possibly (though unlikely) into October. The reason for this is the amount of DWLWR (downwelling longwave radiation) that comes from the clouds actually helps to keep the ice from reforming. Clear skies would allow more LW to leave the open water and sea ice to begin to reform again.

Neven
1. With the probability that 2012 will result in new records for both SIE and SAI, what weather conditions will be most conducive for the melt season to extend into late September or early October?

Like Lodger says, a Dipole helps. An absolute prerequisite is a high-pressure system over the Beaufort Sea. Also see this blog post I wrote at the end of the 2010 melting season.

2. When the 2012 October freeze begins, will it have the same sharp upward slope of previous years?

Yes, it will, but I think it will slow down again by the time the ice reaches the Barentsz and Kara Sea, and perhaps the currently very warm Beaufort Sea.

3. With the fractures reaching deep into the CAB, what does this portend for the 2013 melt season?

Too early to tell, that also depends on the winter. But I don't think the 2013 minimum will be above that of 2009 (the year of the recovery).

Neven

I've just published a post containing the declouded false-colour composite images that dabize has sent me, and a bonus from the NASA Earth Observatory.

Peeking through the clouds 3

Paul Klemencic

R. Gates: My estimate for the CAB SIA is around 2.0M sq km, and I believe the MASIE SIE for CAB will fall to 2.0M (Cryosphere uses a much larger Central Arctic Basin than MASIE).

Neven: The forecast location for the HP is over Greenland, and with a low out toward the New Siberian Islands, the ice in the CAB will be pushed more into the Kara and Barentsz instead of the Greenland sea starting around Monday (if the current forecasts hold).

OldLeatherneck

GeoffBeacon,

The link to the AIRS Methane Maps is up and working again!

http://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/

Neven

I thought of one positive thing this storm might have caused: keeping the newest Petermann iceberg in the fjord so that Andreas Muenchow could safely retrieve all the moorings in Nares Strait.

Charles Longway

Regarding Clathrates, could cyclones have the opposite effect, that is to say cooling them down. Heat is transported to the surface melting the ice. At the same time the bottom should get some cooling. Perhaps cyclones could hold Clathrates in place until the ice is gone. This would be a good thing since it would give us more time to respond. I bring up this possibility also since, if we see a slowing of Methane release, we can assure openminded people that the release will continue when the ice is gone. One problem is that the Methane sensitive areas already are ice free.

GeoffBeacon

Thanks OldLeatherneck.

Has anyone done any statistics on these images?

Eyeballing so many images makes me confused.

OldLeatherneck

GeoffBeacon

Here is a Link to Dr. Yurganov's 2002 - 2012 Global Methane Anomalies:

http://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/AIRS%20CH4%20%202002-2012.pdf

Frankd 1977

The average daily rate of SIA loss in August for the past 5 years has been 36,000 km2 (CT). If the remainder of August behaves this way, SIA will be between 2.5-2.6 million km2 by September 1st!

The average daily rate of SIE loss in August for the past 5 years has been 64,000 km2 (NSIDC). If the remainder of August behaves this way, SIA will be between 4.1-4.2 million km2 by September 1st!

GeoffBeacon

Thanks again OldLeatherneck

That looks interesting.

Apocalypse4Real

In response to Twemoran:

"Have you a link to the Siberian data?"

I have used the Barrow, Alert, and Svalbard CH4 data, but it has been slow in coming.

Given that frustration, and also the inability to capture what is happening across the Arctic, I began using the Giovanni/AIRS CH4 data.

To get the larger, long term picture, I ran the Giovanni CH4 ascending option @ 359 PhA for the Arctic by month in 10 day increments for the entire data set from 09/01/02 till 07/31/12.

My statement about the Siberian CH4 is based on the August 1-7 map imagery compiled from the AIRS data. There are many pockets of readings above 1870 PPBv.

Jeffrey Davis

There has been far too much anxiety over clathrates. It takes a lot of energy to get clathrates to give up their methane. Fracking is easier.

Twemoran

A4Real

Thanks
I've followed AIRS, but was hoping for another site similar to Barrow - before the budget cuts.

Terry

Alais Elena

Separation from the pack also occurred in roughly the same region in 2007

Apocalypse4Real

Jeffery Davis: "There has been far too much anxiety over clathrates."

Jeffrey, there is anxiety over methane clathrates in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, and elsewhere - for good reason.

Here is a timeline to help.

August 18-19, 2011:

The HIPPO polar research flights detected heightened levels of methane gas throughout the Arctic Ocean. Wofsy, the lead investigator commented:

"Scientists were surprised to find strong evidence that ocean surfaces laid bare by melting ice are emitting methane at a "significant" rate likely to have "global impact," Wofsy said.

"It confirms a concern that’s been raised about the removal of ice from the arctic." Wofsy said.

"It does look to be significant, and that’s a new result there."

The process by which the open ocean surface is emitting methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, is uncertain, Wofsy said, adding that it likely is not from frozen masses of methane known to be in deep oceans, nor from methane being exhaled from newly thawed tundra...."

"It had not been forecast that we would see evidence of methane coming from the deep ocean regions," Wofsy said. "Maybe we should’ve known, but that was a surprise." Source: Global warming effect seen in pole-to-pole data-gathering flights 09/07/11

Sept 2, 2011: The Russian ship Academic Lavrentiev sailed from Vladivostock on an unexpected mission to observe methane emission in the ESAS. Semelitov, the expedition leader said:

"This expedition was organized on a short notice by the Russian Fund of Fundamental Research and the U.S. National Science Foundation following the discovery of a dramatic increase in the leakage of methane gas from the seabed in the eastern part of the Arctic, said Professor Igor Semiletov, the head of the expedition.

....The 45-day expedition will focus on the sea shelf of the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Russian part of the Chukotsk Sea, where 90% of underwater permafrost is located.

"We assume that the leakage of methane results from the degradation of underwater permafrost...A massive release of such a powerful greenhouse gas may accelerate global warming," Semiletov said. Source: RIA Novosti, September 2, 2011.

September 26, 2011: Initial expedition report:

VLADIVOSTOK, September 26, 2011 (Itar-Tass) — A Russo-US expedition which visited
the eastern sector of the Arctic seas found powerful methane emissions in the northern
sector of the Laptev and Bering seas, expedition Chief Igor Semiletov, who represents the Far Eastern Institute of Ocean studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences and University of Alaska Fairbanks, told Itar-Tass by telephone from board the Akdemik Lavrentyev research ship.

"Methane torches" have been running up from the depth of the ocean with methane
emitted into the air, Semiletov said. Source: Itar Tass.

Sept 28, 2011: Further details from the expedition:

"The participants of an international expedition have fixed hundreds of torches-fountains of outgoing gas. This only a small part of what is hidden in permafrost, scientists say. On the bottom of the ocean methane is stored in hydrates - solid units, which began to fail at higher temperature emitting gas." Source: Moscow Times.

October 18, 2011: Further details on methane release:

"According to Semiletov, the scientists detected the most powerful methane discharges in the north of the Laptev Sea. Although earlier the scientists detected only several eruptions of gas, this time they found thousands of them using state-of-the-art equipment." Source: RIA Novosti

December 13, 2011: AGU presentation by Semelitov and Shakhova. Semelitov comments in the press:

"In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed.

"Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said.

"I was most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area there should be thousands of them."

"In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the seabed," Dr Semiletov said. "We carried out checks at about 115 stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale – I think on a scale not seen before. Some plumes were a kilometre or more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere – the concentration was a hundred times higher than normal." Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas-6276134.html

Sept 2011-Jan 2012: Methane release documented by satellite data:

The Giovanni/AIRS runs for September 2011 to February 2012 reveal unprecedented sustained methane release in the upper Arctic and Siberian atmosphere.

Despite all the press comments debating the methane release, its size and significance, what follows in US foreign policy changes in regard to climate is telling:

February 15, 2012:

"Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton plans to announce the initiative at the State Department on Thursday accompanied by officials from Bangladesh, Canada, Ghana, Mexico, Sweden and the United Nations Environment Program.

The plan will address short-lived pollutants like soot (also referred to as black carbon), methane and hydrofluorocarbons that have an outsize influence on global warming, accounting for 30 to 40 percent of global warming."
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/16/science/earth/us-pushes-to-cut-emissions-that-speed-climate-change.html?_r=1&src=recg

If adopted globally, measures to reduce soot and methane emissions could slow global warming by about a half a degree Celsius by 2030.

April, 2012: The initiative membership expanded to 13 with the enrollment of Colombia, Japan, Nigeria, Norway and the European Commission along with the World Bank.

May 22, 2012: All the G8 nations join the soot/methane initiative:

"Over the weekend, the remaining members of the G8 who are not yet part of the Coalition-Germany, France, Italy, Russia and the United Kingdom - agreed to join on and expressed their support for its aims and initiatives via the Camp David Declaration. The Declaration states:

"We, the Leaders of the Group of Eight, met at Camp David on May 18 and 19, 2012 to address major global economic and political challenges ... Recognizing the impact of short-lived climate pollutants on near-term climate change, agricultural productivity, and human health, we support, as a means of promoting increased ambition and complementary to other CO2 and GHG emission reduction efforts, comprehensive actions to reduce these pollutants, which, according to UNEP and others, account for over thirty percent of near-term global warming as well as 2 million premature deaths a year. Therefore, we agree to join the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-lived Climate Pollutants." Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201205221100.html

June 2, 2012: Hilliary Clinton announces Norway's joining the coalition. In her Q&A she says,

"SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, I think it is always important to have firsthand experience, if possible. I’ve had the opportunity to visit Svalbard when I was a United States senator. Last year, the Arctic Council met in Nuuk, Greenland. And then of course, today, we were able to go out on a research vessel and hear from experts about what is happening in the Arctic, and in fact, that many of the predications about warming in the Arctic are being surpassed by the actual data. That was a – not necessarily a surprising but sobering fact to be told."

July 24, 2012: Seven more nations join the anti-soot/methane coalition:

"At a meeting in Paris, the Clean Air and Climate Coalition, launched by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in February, said Britain, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Jordan were its latest members. They joined the United States, Bangladesh, Canada, Colombia, the European Commission, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Sweden, the World Bank, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Stockholm Environment Institute -- bringing to 21 the number of members of the voluntary coalition.

"The idea is to come together around a network to scale up actions that could reduce these short-lived pollutants in the near term," United States deputy special envoy for climate change Jonathan Pershing told journalists.

"If we are able to do this we can really buy time in the context of the global problem to combat climate change -- time that we need desperately as the rate of emissions continue to rise globally."

Source: http://phys.org/news/2012-07-countries-anti-soot-methane-campaign.html#jCp

I would suggest there is a direct link between what HIPPO, the Russian expedition findings on methane release, and the US intiative on methane.

Unfortunately, there may also be a link with the US comments this past week about moving away from a generally understood 2C cap on global temperature change linked to warming mitigation goals.

Just something to ponder - as we wait to see what methane emissions are like this fall and winter in the Arctic Ocean.

Kris

Elena wrote:

Separation from the pack also occurred in roughly the same region in 2008

Quite right.

And since then there always has been a tendency to the forming of detached floe islands.

Perhaps the main reason is in 2008/2009 the multiyear ice had been shifted to the Beaufort-, Chuckchi- and New Siberian Seas.

Just an assumption of course, but as good as any other hypothesis.

Well, as the multiyear ice is completely souped up now in these regions, maybe next year we will see complete different a situation.


It's

Artful Dodger

CT reports -137K decrease in SIA for Aug 8, 2012. Seems the clouds have parted/thinned enough for the sensors to get a good peek through the clouds.

Aug 8, 2012 data:
2012.6028 -2.3061333 3.2030327 5.5091658

Aug 8, 2012 key variables:
CAP2E is 58.58%
Solargain is 106.33% (of June 20 value)

Artful Dodger

Tis but a scratch (none shall pass)...

Paul Klemencic

The MASIE data has finally started to show the declines caused by the storm.

The data reported for August 8th was a total SIE of 6.3M sq km, which seemed to match the total for August 3-4 period. Today's report shows 6.1M, and the E.Siberian region finally showed a big drop. Over the next five days, the data on the regions should register on the MASIE graphs, and will be make for belated, grim reading.

Jeffrey Davis

Apocalypse4Real, RealClimate produced an extensive analysis of the clathrate issue several months ago. The numbers just aren't there to justify the hand-wringing. It's very difficult to get clathrates to release their methane. There's no doubt that the amount of arctic methane is increasing, but the amounts just don't change the current world wide releases of methane significantly. Even if the arctic release grew enormously. The geological record doesn't really support a catastrophic fart/belch.

What Mercutio said of his rather small wound is apt for CO2. Tis enough, twill serve.

Alais Elena

Actually, Jeffrey, the second RealClimate post on Arctic methane (written by a guest), in particular, was extremely weak and full of holes, as pointed out by the many commenters.

Semiletov and Shakhova, using sediment cores, found that the subsea clathrates were no longer frozen but actually were already slushy. They also found that the temperature at which they melted was only slightly less than -0.5 C.

The depth of the sea over the vast shelf off Siberia is only 50 to 250 feet, and the waters are warming rapidly, reaching even 10 C.

It would not be logical to shrug off the danger of the melting clathrates.

Susan Anderson

WRT RealClimate on methane, it became clear that the author was open to more information in those same comments. I don't think anyone can say the subject has been put to rest, though the numbers and proportions are valuable information and do provide some better idea of the proportions and mechanisms involved. Another point made was that regardless of additional GHG contributions the basic problem has not changed. OTOH, as we come closer to the cliff, each smaller contribution becomes more important.

Please note also the input from Siberian fires:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/event.php?id=77712

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