After last month's minimum the 2012 trend line isn't quite hugging the 2011 trend line as much as the latter hugged the 2010 trend line, keeping a polite distance. It's still 1069 and 1537 km3 below 2011 and 2010 respectively. Hopefully the trend line starts pulling up a bit.
Here is Wipneus'
version with the calculated "expected" 2012 values (dotted
lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential
A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."
The trend line on the PIOMAS anomaly graph is creeping back to the 2 STD zone:
I have used my crude method of dividing PIOMAS volume numbers by Cryosphere Today area numbers to calculate the ice pack's average thickness. Again, this is just an indication that allows us to compare with previous years:
- 2005: 1.43
- 2006: 1.45
- 2007: 1.21
- 2008: 1.31
- 2009: 1.34
- 2010: 1.09
- 2011: 1.02
- 2012: 0.96
So on average the thickness of the ice pack is now below 1 metre. According to my spreadsheet PICT has never been below 1 metre until October 21st 2012. Because the calculation is so crude, I will not bother to turn this into yet another record domino.
Here's the thickness graph from the Polar Science Center:
The 2012 trend line seems to have bottomed out here and not gone below the 2011 record minimum thickness.
We'll be keeping a sharp eye on this one, as PIOMAS is now our best tool to try and predict what the next melting season will bring.