Excellent news! The trend line has crept up some more and 2013 now has 133 km3 more ice than 2012 and is virtually tied with 2011. It seems the cold of the past weeks has thickened the ice pack considerably. I was getting worried about the coming melting season, especially with those huge cracks already opening up, so this is definitely a relief.
Here is Wipneus'
version with the calculated "expected" 2013 values (dotted
lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential
A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."
And how about average thickness? Here's the PICT (PIOMAS volume divided by CT area) graph:
The rise looks remarkably steady and if it weren't for the 2012 dip, this year's average thickness would still be well below previous years. Here's average thickness for March 1st (in m):
- 2005: 1.70
- 2006: 1.81
- 2007: 1.67
- 2008: 1.66
- 2009: 1.66
- 2010: 1.59
- 2011: 1.56
- 2012: 1.49
- 2013: 1.45
The thickness graph from the Polar Science Center is basically showing the same, except that here 2012's dip has put this year and last year on a par too:
So thickness is still lowest, but at least volume is back to abnormal. That should give us something to hold onto when the melting season starts.