According to the model data 2013 has peaked at a total volume of 21,823 km3 on April 17th, which is 100 km3 below last year's record. Since then, 2013 volume has dipped quite a bit below last year's number (295 km3 to be precise), but is still close to 2011 which has only 63 km3 more at this moment.
Here is Wipneus'
version with the calculated "expected" 2013 values (dotted
lines), based on the same date values of 1979-2011 and an exponential
A caveat from Wipneus: "Note that the statistical error bars are quite large."
The anomaly trend line is now back in 2 standard deviation territory:
As usual, I have crudely calculated the ice pack's average thickness by dividing PIOMAS (PI) volume numbers with Cryosphere Today (CT) sea ice area numbers. Current average thickness is still above last year's average thickness number:
Here's average thickness for April 30th in metres, with change from last month between brackets:
- 2005: 2.16 (+0.18)
- 2006: 2.12 (+0.20)
- 2007: 2.01 (+0.14)
- 2008: 2.04 (+0.20)
- 2009: 2.03 (+0.20)
- 2010: 1.87 (+0.17)
- 2011: 1.82 (+0.16)
- 2012: 1.76 (+0.17)
- 2013: 1.78 (+0.18)
No big changes there, 2013's ice pack is now 2 centimetres thicker on average than last year. Of course, volume and area are both quite a bit lower at the moment than in 2012.
Just like last month, the thickness graph from the Polar Science Center is still showing 2013 slightly below 2012 (although, contrary to the other graphs, it doesn't seem to be updated all the way to the end of the month):
Average thickness will continue growing for another month or so, as thinner ice on the edges of the ice pack melt out, but then start to decrease as well.