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Martin Gisser

Looking at the NSIDC extent graph (instead of Hans' link) I see a good chance that 2013 can catch up: July heads straight down. Extend this line and you get down to 2012.

Henry1

A lot of years would pass 2012 if we simply extended the trend line down from mid-July. Extent loss slows down in late July and August which is why we look at area or concentration to get an idea if it will be an unusual late cliff like last year was.

Jai Mitchell

even at 2012's currently steeper slope (for same days last year) 2013 is about 79% greater melt on a day to day level.

While I don't expect this pace to continue the fact is 2012 does slow down by about 50% for the last week of July and it won't take much for this year to catch up at current levels (at this rate even if slopes are held steady 2013 would catch 2012 in about 10 days.

Henry1

2012 slows down in late July but its a false plateau. It completely craters in August like no other year. So even if 2013 gains close to it by the end of this month, it will have to somehow keep up with 2012 in August which I cannot see happening given the higher concentration of the ice in 2013. It's way ahead in area.

The ice looked horrible last year at this point. http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/jul/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20120717-v5_nic.png

One week later: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2012/jul/asi-SSMIS-n6250-20120724-v5_nic.png

Werther

Of course it looked horrible day 198 2012. Melt was one week ahead.

And I'm pointing at the Beaufort Sea here.

I've just stopped comparing the images I had posted on the Forum day 185.
Don't get fooled by the 'static' graphs (like the Bremen maps). They're good in their way.
But things do happen out there. The ice has moved almost 100 km, rotating 22 dg into the direction of the Mackenzie delta. Opening up 65 km West of Banks.
The ice boundary parallel to the coast has held up to the Can-USA border.
More to the West it is now further away than last year.
You won't find it in the numbers, but, while being pushed into the ice free waters, 24K was lost.
Meanwhile, further up the pack, the Feb cracks start showing up. Indicating thinning. And spread. The patterns change rapidly.

I leave further speculation on the melt to your imagination...

wayne

Right Werther, Bremen product is better than the Chicago made map, at least when comparing to a NOAA visual picture.

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/NorthWestPassage_AMSR2_visual.png

Neven, the image above is not exciting compared to last year, but the physics were different, the ice was more compressed, it took months for the gyre current to be overwhelmed this summer, it will not bounce back strong overnight. This is the right way of explaining things:

July 16 Bremen map looks like a traditional September 16 Minima depiction for where the ice should be. We are 2 months ahead of normal, one strong wind with current and momentum all vectoring in the same direction could cause an all time ice melt record any moment. Its a matter of physics. Say we freeze this day until September 15, the ice conditions would be still amazingly different, multi-year ice is mostly replaced with fragile 1st year. Again the record here is beyond the visuals but rather in the details.

Kate

I've been watching a fairly strong system spinning in the Arctic. Has been spinning ice out through the Fram for the past day or so. If you want to see the hot air from the US from the link go all the way back and load as many images as you can. The waves through the US/Canada and into the north are quite amazing to watch.

http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=hrpt_dfo_nir_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

hope that works

Kate

Some recent temps around the arctic today
Alert 3C at 09:00 UTC
Barrow 10C at 08:53 UTC
Thule 6C at 08:58 UTC
Resolute 7C at (09:00 UTC
Longyearbyen 10C at 08:53 UTC

These temps have been fairly consistent over the last few days. There are no 0C land temps anywhere within the arctic circle on a 'regular' basis... And it's only July.

Pjie2

"Only" July? July is the hottest month of the year for every one of those locations.

Boa05att

The Washington Post blogs about the Arctic snow and ice melt -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/07/18/snow-and-arctic-ice-extent-plummet-suddenly-as-globe-bakes/

wayne

It was more than I expected, July 17 272 K melt, lots of it from the Beaufort, is this close to the all time high daily drop?? With this there will be a change in weather dynamics, hold on to your hats we are going for a wild roller coaster ride.


Jim Hunt

I'm slightly surprised nobody seems to have mentioned it here yet, but another cyclone seems to be on its way to the Beaufort Sea:

The isobars are a bit close together, but it looks like 980 hPa in the middle by Wednesday. A "wild roller coaster ride" awaits us?

jdallen_wa

@Jim

It has been getting some column width in the forums. The consensus/concern about the incipient "GAC2013" is pretty much summarized in:
Hammer (Wind and Rain)
Plus Glass (Fractured, fragile arctic pack)
Plus Anvil (Beaufort Sea and Arctic Ocean)
Equals: dust

Christoffer Ladstein

Jim: Are you hinting at the pretty strong low that have been hoovering above the pole for the last days? That one also ought to be able to stir things up like a blender.
Temps at Svalbard have been 2-3 C above normal this summer, expect huge losses at the multiple glaciers. Assume the same for Novaya Zemlja, where temps reached at least 23 C yesterday, thats not very far of records!

Henry1

It looks like the weather is turning a lot colder in the arctic basin over the next 10 days compared to what we just went through. The cyclone next week might be the last chance to change the ice dramatically enough to challenge any records.

LRC

Now I can not read a weather map to save myself, but I can put 1+1=2 occasionally.
a)You have cold temps building near the NP.
b)You have lots of warm to very warm temps, for the purpose of cyclones, near by.
c)Ready access to cold water near the possible core.
From my limited understanding of core cold cyclones do you not have most of the main ingredients of a long lasting cyclone?
Also GAC2012 to last as long as it did had to do a major job on the ice to get to the water it needed. This time PAC2013 has taken care of that job so that if a GAC2013 gets going could it not be stronger and last longer? Or were the perimeter temps higher?

Paul Beckwith

@LRC
I posted a lot of YouTube videos on the August, 2012 massive cyclone (ice thickness, motion, SSS, SST, SSH... and the jet behavior and other meteorology)

I then repeated this for the last 2.5 weeks. Have not fully analyzed this yet, but I think the low coming in 6 days will set up a repeat of August, 2012.

Another similarity is the huge number of fires in the north. In August, 2012 they were in Siberia and this year they are in northern Canada. The ash and heat will be captured if the cyclone is as large as last years.

LRC

Sorry about forgetting Youtube possibles. I can handle hitech fairly well, just forget all the time what is out there. Thanks.

Jim Hunt

Apologies for any confusion. I hastily linked to an image I uploaded to the forum, but it looks like it was invisible to anybody else! Here's the latest GFS forecast for the Beaufort Sea next Wednesday:

and it still says 980 in the centre.

Kate

@Jim Hunt
Nice pic! it is gathering momentum today and for the next few days at least!

John Goddard

Visit this site daily. You guys are doing a great job!

SIE lost 227841km on the 16th
and 231813km on the 17th

https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area

That seems significant to me!

John Goddard

Another 2 century drop (200372km) for the 18th.

Potential for clearing from 5 to 4 million km2 in 5 days.

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