Given another uptick and the current weather forecast, I'm ready to call the minimum for IJIS SIE V1 on September 12th at 5,000,313 km2. Apparently the high was too big and the pressure gradient too low to prolong things (see below).
This blog post should perhaps have been written last week, but better late than never, right? Although it could even be too late, as the minimum might have occured already in some data sets. But if there's one thing I did right on this blog so far, it's calling the IJIS sea ice extent minimum! So let's forget all the rest and keep doing what we're good at.
Pinpointing the minimum is a slightly tricky business, especially this year with all the thin ice that didn't melt out. On the one hand this causes a lot of compaction (and some last melting) potential, but this might be offset by faster freeze-up due to all the open water between floes. Either way, it's the atmospheric situation that determines when the minimum occurs in September.
I personally re-invented this wheel back in 2010, the first melting season that was covered on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, when comparing the end of the melting season with previous ones in a series called End Zone. In the third instalment I covered the influence of atmospheric pressure on the timing of season's end. As I wrote at the time: