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crandles

Merry Christpiomas to you all.

Werther

Thanks for this empathic post, Neven... I'm all with Santa and I wish he may continue spreading hope and comfort to all of our fellow sentient beings. Merry Christmas, friends!

SouBundanga

Happy Christmas, Neven. Thank you so much for all your diligent work and the info you provide. This is one of my must visit blogs and one of the best around.

Happy holidays everyone and wishing you all a very good year in 2014 - with less CO2.

wili

Thanks for the great graph-gifts. Neven and his elves have been busy!

Colorado Bob

Under Arctic Ice, Photographer Captures Climate Shifts In Earth's Most Rapidly Changing Place

What does the future hold for the parts of the world that will be most affected by Earth's warming climate? This spring and summer, St. Louis-based photojournalist Randall Hyman spent four months getting a preview in Arctic Norway, a place he's visited again and again since the mid-1970s.

What struck him most on this trip, a Fulbright Scholarship project between April and August, was a pace of change that "has really picked up in the last decade," Hyman said, since trips he made there in 2006 and 2007.
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/randall-hyman-photographer-under-arctic-ice-capture-climate-change-20131224

VaughnA

Thanks everyone who posts on this blog for your vast array of knowledge. Without this blog I would be less wise and probably much less knowledgeable about the Arctic climate and conditions. A special thanks to Neven for facilitating all of these resources and knowledge coming together in one place.
Merry Christmas everyone as we prepare for an exciting New Year.

Clare

Thanks for this, compliments of the Season Neven, to you & yours, & all your helpers here.
Maybe Santa could just relocate, seems plenty of seaice down in this part of the globe:
http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/kiwis-ship-trapped-in-ice-5786446

And then of course he has the whole Antarctic continent for his base.
Clare in summer in NZ

NeilT

Merry Christmas Neven and all.

A picture speaks a thousand words as they say. The $64k question is how many million words it will take to "wake up" the common herd???

Hans Gunnstaddar

Here's some more ice volume graphs:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/feb-2013-sea-ice-spiral.html

Thanks Neven and to all the other contributors for the many fascinating graphs, information, and ever changing current events this past year. Agree Arctic will be ice free by decades end. I'm figuring 2017.

Happy Holidays!

Hans Gunnstaddar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAMN3a6u91M

Here's probably the best animated graph showing declining Arctic ice volume by Andy Lee Robinson. It's even set to music. Doesn't include 2013 but still shows unmistakable trend.

Rob Dekker

After the devastating and almost scary 2012 melting season, I think we can all breath a bit easier now that 2013 appears to be the coldest melting season since 2001. Santa's home is saved for at least another year.

And a special merry Christmas to Chris Reynolds, Wipneus, A-team and many other contributors over 2013 that make Neven's ASI blog the best place to get information on what is happening in the Arctic, the last remaining marine wildlife sanctuary and the canary in the coal mine of global warming.

You guys rock !

Jim_pettit

I find Andy Lee's nicely-animated and musically-enhanced video graphs to be a great addition to the many wonderful sea ice visualizations out there. I do wish there was a way he could keep his more up-to-date, but given the considerable amount of work that goes into making them, any delays are completely understandable.

Anyway, as I promised Neven several days ago, I went ahead and added animation code to my three (for now) 3D graphs:

The animation starts upon loading. To replay, just click the link in the lower left. And, yes, you can still use your mouse or touchscreen to move the graphic around in 3D space even while the animation continues.

(FWIW, I think the first one—the "death spiral" version—is most startling when animated; it's almost like watching water ice swirl down the bathtub drain...)

ljgeoff

Happy Holidays, Neven! And to all of the great folks who post this important information. Thank you all so much for all the great graphs and youtube links. I kinda love all of you.

Hans Gunnstaddar

Great animations Jim. If I may suggest to others, turn the 3rd one to the left and set horizontally, a view that clearly tells the story of ice volume loss.

r w Langford

My thanks and year end best wishes to Neven and all the contributors to this unique blog. There is nothing like it on the web.

Garethman

Excellent stuff. Being a very visual person I really find these graphs helpful in understanding the situation in the far North. Blywddin Newydd i chi!

GeoffBeacon

Yes. Many many thanks.

I hope you can keep going in the new year.

Mike

Season's Greetings to all, and thank you for a great year. Jim's animated 3D graphs are truly awesome.

idunno

Merry XPiomas one and all,

Follows a shcoking report of how Santa has brought all of this on himself...

http://www.unitedbankofcarbon.com/latest-news/yorkshire-scientists-concerned-by-santas-emissions/

Andy Lee Robinson

Hi Jim, thanks... love your graphs, this was on my todo list for a while too but I'm glad you saved me the trouble!

I could produce my animations monthly, but don't want to clutter up my youtube channel with hundreds of versions which may get linked to, and then can't delete without giving a bad impression and making work for someone.

Even with eight servers the ice cube video takes about 3 days to render, mainly because of the lovely refraction and area lights.
The waterfall diagram takes less than a day.

The nice thing is that I can fire up all the machines and with one command, mount the work directory over NFS, grab all the materials to render locally on each machine, allocate a job using mysql, and deliver the results with a minimum of bandwidth.
One of the machines in the cluster is my remotely hosted webserver, which takes part using 3 out of 4 cores over a VPN.
What started as an idea evolved into an almost BOINC-scale project!

I'll update this waterfall animation in January to make a complete 2013 and let y'all know.
http://youtu.be/oFMDmS783Ro

Colorado Bob

UK scientists to probe Pine Island Glacier

Jonathan Amos, December 24, 2013, NYT:

Voyage

U K scientists are about to set out for Antarctica to investigate the mighty Pine Island Glacier. The PIG drains about 10 per cent of all the ice sliding off the west of the continent, and has seen a marked thinning and a surge in velocity in recent decades. Its contribution to sea-level rise is now greater than any other glacier on the planet. The British Antarctic Survey-led team hopes its iStar project will provide new insights into the PIG’s behaviour. The researchers will gather their measurements using a diverse set of techniques and technologies, including robotic subs and satellites, and even instrument-carrying elephant seals. “We want to improve our understanding of what this glacier is doing and to use that information to be able to make good predictions for its contribution to global sea-level in the years ahead,” said Andy Smith, iStar’s science programme manager at BAS.
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/376323/uk-scientists-probe-pine-island.html

Garethman

I'm sure one of you sharp cookies out there can give me some info on this, why has the fall in temperature rate in the Arctic levelled off above the average? Does this bode ill for the next melting season ? Blwyddin Newydd da i pawb http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Neven

This graph from DMI is useful, but keep in mind that it's based on modeled data.

These are temps for the area north of 80°, but the Arctic and its sea ice pack are much larger.

If you skip through previous years, you'll see that winter temps are above average almost all of the time.

This doesn't either bode well or ill for the melting season, as we still have 3-4 months of freezing season left to go, so nothing definite to say about that for now.

But keep an eye on that graph and other graphs/maps on the ASIG (scroll down a bit for the air and sea surface temperature stuff).

Garethman

Thanks Neven, very useful, have a great 2014.

Neven

You too, Garethman (and others)!

Werther

Some comparisons and some apology…

I’ve gone through the ‘winter power’-NCEP/NCAR temp anomaly data, some ASCAT comparison ’12-’13 and dubbing CT graphs on CAD. And finally layered the latest low-resolution Cryosat over these.

Have to say my first impression on 20 December was too prudent. After the mentioned comparisons, I think Cryosat produced quite good results. The ‘splinter-zone’and Barentsz-Bite were represented. So I’ve no more reason to doubt the general pattern Cryosat gives for thickness.

That is also a reason for an intention for 2014; while being very alarmed, don’t misinterpret good information to suggest it’s worse than that (it’s already bad enough…).

Bluegrue.wordpress.com

Merry Christmas everyone.

Not sure, whether this tidbit has come up elsewhere already. A team of the Antarctic Heritage Trust has found 22 exposed, but undeveloped, negatives from Scott's expedition to the South Pole.
http://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2013/12/27/on-ice-100-year-old-negative-discovered-in-antarctic-ice

A gallery:
http://www.nzaht.org/AHT/antarctic-photos/

Hubert Bułgajewski

http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2013/12/zasieg-lodu-w-arktyce-jeden-z.html
Ice extent - the second lowest on record JAXA
What does this mean for the 2014 season?

Colorado Bob

Been watching B-31 , in Pine Island Bay .

The 12-10-2013 shot :
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=PineIslandGlacier.A2013344.2250.1km.jpg

The 12-26-2013 shot :
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=PineIslandGlacier.A2013360.1540.1km.jpg

Chick back and forth , she's grounded while the rest of Pine Island Bay, shatters and flows away.

R. Gates

Happy New Year everyone. 2014 is set to be a very interesting year for the Earth's climate, with a possible mild El Niño setting up for a bit more latent and sensible heat flux coming from the oceans, and therefore leading to a potential record setting high for global tropospheric temperatures. I gave a brief review of the 2013 Climate Year here:

http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/21/ringing-out-2013/#comment-431024

Hans Gunnstaddar

R. Gates, you may be on to something re: El Nino in 2014, but according to the following article it is even odds.

http://qz.com/147455/el-nino-may-make-2014-the-worlds-hottest-year-yet/#

"New data show nearly even odds for El Niño conditions to develop next year, which could make 2014 the hottest year on record.

It would be the first official El Niño since 2010, currently the world’s hottest year ever recorded. Four out of the five warmest years on record were all El Niño years."

_____________________________

How about an El Nino in 2015?

http://news.imau.nl/?p=1056

OPTIMISM, POSITIVE SIGNALS and THE BIG EL NINO 2015

"Based on anomalously low sea surface temperatures in the southwestern Indian Ocean north of Madagascar (see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml), I predict the evolution of a big El Niño in the Pacific that will peak around January 2015."

If it peaks in Jan. 2015, then it will surely begin in 2014. The timing on this should prove very interesting regarding arctic ice melt.

R. Gates

That's interesting Hans. It could be a repeat of the 1997/98 El Niño, where the El Niño actually peaked in late 1997, but ran into 1998, and the big effect on tropospheric temperatures was therefore in 1998 as it took a while for all that sensible and latent heat caused by the El Niño to register on tropospheric. There is usually a several month lag between peak SST's of an El Niño and peak tropospheric temperatures, so maybe 2015 will be the warmer year, but perhaps it will simply eclipse a record set in 2014?

GeoffBeacon

R.Gates

Can I post your excellent comment http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/21/ringing-out-2013/#comment-431024 on my blog http://brusselsblog.co.uk/

I would obviously give appropriate credits.

R. Gates

Of course Geoff...feel free to.

ReverendBrownbuttock .

Over at Notrickszone (not unknown to you) there's a retired engineer who truly believes that spending a few hours studying temperatures around Antarctica over the past few years is sufficient research to conclude the area is actually cooling, contrary to what all those real climate scientists claim.

This level of arrogance coupled with extreme stupidity never ceases to amaze me.

Werther

R.Gates,
Thank you for posting your response to Curry.
In referring to the characteristics of last decades trend, “a flattening of the lower tropospheric temperature rise” seems to me a better proposal than “hiatus” or “pause”.

In the text you make clear that the enormous heat capacity of the oceans is of great importance to the further development of global warming. You excellently summarized the different forcings and their combined influence on mean tropospheric temps.
A good reference is also found at: http://www.skepticalscience.com/A-Looming-Climate-Shift-Will-Ocean-Heat-Come-Back-to-Haunt-us.html

For Arctic sea ice through 2013, I find the parallel you draw with the ’07-’08 period interesting. And I would be very interested to learn the mass balance loss estimations for Greenland and Antarctica through 2013.

As for the ‘weird-weather’-part, while I agree on your phrase: “..no conclusion can be drawn..”, the information I get second hand for the response in our biosphere (and witness myself on small scale in my surroundings) grips me in awe and attention.

Rob Dekker

Somewhat OT, but I saw the movie "Frozen" (Disney) on New Year's Eve, and I can recommend it for anyone with a passion for snow/ice. Here is one inspiring scene :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk

So here is by new year's wish :

Let 2014 be the year when we no longer hold back in using our skills, abilities and passions to learn, inform and debunk mis-information about our changing climate and the Arctic specifically.

Werther

Hi Rob,

Thank you for the wish. I don't know what message Disney has on it's agenda concerning climate awareness, but I'm happy to take the mystic creativity in the scene into the effort for myself!

R. Gates

Currently watching the polar vortex being "squeezed" by at high pressure wave advancing north from Asia, here at 10 hPa:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f00.gif

This "squeezing" of the vortex is causing the cold weather outbreaks at the lower latitudes as the vortex becomes elongated from the squeeze. Should the high pressure continue north, it could very well shatter the vortex completely over the pole, causing a classic SSW event.

Colorado Bob


Pine Island Glacier, one of the largest routes for ice to flow from Antarctica into the sea, is far more susceptible to climatic and ocean variability than previously believed, according to research published Thursday in the advanced online version of the journal Science.

Observations from Dr. Pierre Dutrieux of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and his colleagues showed sizable fluctuations in ocean heat in Pine Island Bay. They reported that oceanic melting of the ice shelf into which the glacier flows decreased by 50 percent between the years of 2010 and 2012, and that a La Niña weather event may have been to blame.

Read more at http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1113038337/pine-island-glacier-shrinking-climatic-variability-010314/#m4zw1mMOUwUzCgVL.99

Colorado Bob

Posted by: R. Gates | January 04, 2014 at 17:31

Sky Pony at Ricky Rood -

NASA did a good review of the polar vortex split in 2009.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972

Colorado Bob


Sorry missed the link.


578. Skyepony (Mod) 2:22 AM GMT on January 05, 2014
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=283#commenttop

Colorado Bob

What's Driving Chaotic Dismantling of Canada's Science Libraries?

Scientists reject Harper gov't claims vital material is being saved digitally.
http://www.thetyee.ca/News/2013/12/23/Canadian-Science-Libraries/

Hubert Bułgajewski

https://sites.google.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/
There are no new maps Arctishe Pinguin. What happened?

Neven

Wipneus reported on the ASIF that there's "no update for 2014 yet from Uni Hamburg."

Wipneus

"no update for 2014 yet from Uni Hamburg."

And that is still true today. Lots of my own scripts were not 2014-ready, so I guess something similar is the case there.

R. Gates

Vortex continues to be squeezed and elongated by the high pressure and temperatures coming up from Asia at 10 hPa:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f00.gif

Beginnings of at least a minor SSW event:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2014.gif

Will the vortex simply be disrupted, or will it be split, leading to a major SSW event? Stay tuned...


ljgeoff

From yesterday's Daily Kos: Polar Vortex, Jet Streams, Stratospheric Warming events, Rossby Waves, and Arctic Blasts

"If only those record-melting Arctic ice packs would stay in place and not keep warming up their supposed-to-be Arctic neighborhoods by exposing all that open sea water -- then maybe that Arctic Vortex might not have to 'go wobbling around like a wildly spinning top -- losing its fast-track momentum' ... at such an ever increasing rate.

But then again, Who needs stable Jet Streams anyways?"

Werther

Hi all,
First thing I looked at this morning, what was more or less expected is now showing in the graphs. Like R.Gates above wrote, looks like SSW is developing rapidly, contributing to the array of weather effects that more and more hint at hemispheric rearrangement.

 photo 10hPaZonalmeantemperaturesmall_zps23f370bb.jpg

Colorado Bob

Chilly warning from scientists on impact of Antarctica changes

The change in sea-ice coverage is massive every year - roughly increasing from a minimum of about 3 million square kilometres at the end of summer to about 19 million square kilometres by late spring. However, regions of West Antarctic are recording a drop in sea-ice extent of about 7 per cent each decade, or more than the 4.15 per cent reduction in Arctic ice.

Advertisement

"It's a very marked regional response [to climate change], more so than for the Arctic," Phil Reid, an Antarctic scientist with the Bureau of Meteorology, said.

Countering that reduction in the west, in part, is an increase in ice off east Antarctic, possibly because of extra snowfall. Overall, "it's not more sea ice, it's just differently distributed", said Jan Lieser, a marine glaciologist with the research centre.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/chilly-warning-from-scientists-on-impact-of-antarctica-changes-20140106-30dmr.html#ixzz2pep2StYD

Hans Gunnstaddar

http://peakoil.com/enviroment/dead-sea-creatures-cover-98-of-ocean-floor-off-california-coast-up-from-1-before-fukushima

Dead Sea Creatures Cover 98% of Ocean Floor Off California Coast; Up From 1% Before Fukushima
"The Pacific Ocean appears to be dying, according to a new study recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Scientists from the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) in California recently discovered that the number of dead sea creatures blanketing the floor of the Pacific is higher than it has ever been in the 24 years that monitoring has taken place, a phenomenon that the data suggests is a direct consequence of nuclear fallout from Fukushima.

The masses of dead sea plankton, jellyfish, feces and other oceanic matter that typically only cover about 1 percent of the ocean floor were found to now be covering about 98 percent of it — and multiple other stations located throughout the Pacific have since reported similar figures."

A few weeks ago I posted the suggestion that possibly Fukushima was responsible for the star fish die-off, and later Colorado Bob suggested the ocean was dying. Well let's hope the whole Pacific isn't dying, however it appears both of us were on to something.

Here's a National Geographic article from August 2013.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/08/130807-fukushima-radioactive-water-leak/

"The government now says it is clear that 300 tons (71,895 gallons/272,152 liters) are pouring into the sea each day, enough to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool every eight days.

Shunichi Tanaka, head of Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority, has told reporters that it’s probably been happening since an earthquake and tsunami touched off the disaster in March 2011."

So we are talking about a volume equal to an olympic size swimming pool of highly radioactive liquid leaking into the ocean every 8 days, ever since the initial disaster?! Shouldn't it have been disposed of in a better way?! How about in cannisters that are buried in a deep pit?! I'm no expert on disposing of nuclear waste, but to just let it leak into the ocean is sheer madness!

Chuck Yokota

Hans, after reading the entire article, I became skeptical of the writer's interpretation. The writer is a global warming denier, and enters conspiracy theory territory in discounting the original PNAS article's connection of the event to global warming. Apparently, events of this sort are episodic and have occurred several times during the period of observation. This latest event is the largest seen, but previous events have been comparable, and the PNAS article attributes increasing size and frequency of these events to global warming. Here is the original PNAS abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/11/05/1315447110

jdallen_wa

Fukushima is terrifying no doubt, but claims of it having prompt, world wide devastating affects are both hysterical and overblown. The prompt effects are and remain primarily terrestrial, or localized to the ocean in the immediate vicinity of the plant.

I will add, that in various studies, Arthropods and invertebrates in general are highly resistant to hard radiation, and even more so to ionizing radiation. The die offs with little doubt (in my mind) are the direct result of human tinkering with ocean chemistry, by way of the unholy confluence of nitrates, phosphates, elevated CO2 and pesticide residue.

Hans Gunnstaddar

Ah, not so fast.
http://www.naturalnews.com/043409_Fukushima_Cesium-137_radiation.html

NaturalNews) "Radiation from Fukushima has reached the shores of California. This has been confirmed by county officials in Half Moon Bay, California, who conducted radiation tests and found a 500% increase in radiation on the beaches there.

Alarm has been raised over the past few days thanks to amateur videos like this one showing alarmingly high Geiger counter readings on the beaches. "The videos follow other alarming news last month that starfish were mysteriously disintegrating along the West Coast, a trend that has not been linked yet to any cause," writes the Half Moon Bay Review.

It has been confirmed that TEPCO lied about radiation readings at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plants. Actual radiation releases were as much as 18 times higher than "official" reports."

I think the jury is still out on this one. Let's see what the final verdict is.

jdallen_wa

Hans... The radiation indicated in that video is less than what someone would typically be exposed to taking a walk down the street in Denver. In short, well under natural levels found all sorts of places. Fukushima is a threat to Japan, and a threat to near- shore fisheries, but degrades exponentially with distance.

Shared Humanity

Given that the Arctic is the most rapidly changing topographical feature, I now understand, for the 1st time why this site is singularly focused on it.

Thank you Neven for doing this, for putting so much time and effort in this site? You are a mensch.

Hans Gunnstaddar

Well jd, I think you may have just solved our nuclear waste disposal problem. Dump it deep in the oceans away from civilization. If need be, dump it in several locations to spread it around so when it does reach civilization it will be like a walk in Denver.

jdallen_wa

Hans, that is hardly the kind of response I would expect from someone on this blog.

You want to prove a point, show the science.

Don't try to start a flame war. At this point, if you have something additional you want to share with me on this topic, please post it over on the forums.

Dan Carter

Fukushima is off topic.

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