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Hans Gunnstaddar

Jevon's paradox is resource specific and does not speak to fuel switching within an environment of resource depletion.

That's an interesting idea and presupposes people won't want their cake and eat it too (especially in poorer countries), but that aside, where does the capitol come from once amplifying economic feedbacks ensue as crude descends from peak? That means figuring out how to fund a new energy system on a net energy descent.

Bob Wallace

Hans, you apparently believe that we are six years from a global collapse.

Why is it that no government agency, from any government in the world is not warning us?

Why do we not see countries starting to hoard oil and rush alternatives into place?

Can you identify any major scientific agencies which have called out the alarm?

jdallen_wa

Bob - Hans may tend to be more aggressive than I am with his assessments, but just on my own anecdotal experience of the last forty years or so, and what I know of peak oil, his concerns have some merit.

I really do not think there is anything accidental about the rise of fracking for natural gas development and peak oil; not one bit.

It might be in time to avoid prompt chaos, but is still a stop gap. The system of global trade is far more fragile than most of us realize; the earthquake in Japan was a test run demonstrating just how badly a single event can disrupt it.

Hans Gunnstaddar

Why would they do anything to panic its people?

Where's the link you were going to provide that shutting down a blog proves peak oil is dead? You were actually sold on the idea that if a few people shut down a blog it somehow proves a finite resource is infinite? Does that make sense to you?

Did you read any of the links that were provided? Did you read the article linked about the German Army's resulting research on the topic? If so, respond to it. Did you read the article regarding recent reductions in oil major company reductions in Capex? If so, what are your thoughts on it? Did you acknowledge or do a search on Jdwallen's post of the US military's research into the topic? When you do post him back with your thoughts on it and provide links to disprove the US military's position on the topic.

It's pretty clear you won't though because you've apparently prejudged the topic. I'm not going to hold your hand with more links. You are old enough to type so do the research for yourself with an open mind.

Neven

My friends, this is one of the reasons why I started the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (especially if you're going to bicker :-) ).

Apocalypse4Real

Apologies Neven, but this needs inserted here to address Bob's question. I'd suggest a read of the National Academy of Sciences:

Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=14682

Here is a hint:

Recommendation 6.3: The intelligence community should establish a system of periodic “stress testing” for countries, regions, and critical global systems regarding their ability to manage potentially disruptive climate events of concern. Stress tests would focus on potentially disruptive conjunctions of climate events and socioeconomic and political conditions.

Shared Humanity

Can you believe 90% humidity at the end of the arctic summer???

This makes absolute sense. As global atmospheric moisture climbs due to AGW, we should expect that the relatively low temperatures of the Arctic will result in persistently high relative humidity in the high latitudes. We should also see these cold temperatures wring out a lot of moisture from the increasing cloud cover. So, I would not be surprised if we see ongoing increases in humidity and summer precipitation. The only question I have is whether we will also see these trends during the Arctic winters.

Jai Mitchell

Shared,

from the reading of the paper it looks like they determined that the flora would emit more moisture and have subsequent more regional methane emissions at the end of summer to prepare for the long dark winter. But they did say that through that winter there was no heavy frost. Remember, at that time the earth's surface between 45'S to 45'N was largely uninhabitable due to high temperatures.

Hans.

There is enough bitumen in Alberta that, if enough investment is made, it would basically double the world's extractable oil resources, lasting through 2085 at current consumption rates. Imagine 5 or 6 nuclear power plants generating thermal energy to extract in-situ bitumen by 2030, if Oil reaches 300.00 per barrel then that proposition becomes a very economically favorable event.

re: Jevon's and developing countries, that is why the carbon tax has to be a global one.

Jai Mitchell

Chris,

This paper just came out that shows the land-surface warming extremes growing during the SST La Nina stagnation events very clearly.

http://thingsbreak.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/no-pause-in-the-increase-of-hot-temperature-extremes.pdf

figure 2 is very scary when compared to

(my) TOA projections
http://i58.tinypic.com/15twrs.jpg

sofouuk

wouldn't have to be a global carbon tax at first. if eg the EU introduced one, it could apply the same tax as an tariff on embedded carbon in imported products. legal under WTO rules as long as the same tax rate is applied to all goods, and then the incentive is there for firms exporting to the EU to improve energy efficiency; then they put pressure on their governments to introduce similar tax at home because they'll have an advantage if it does

Colorado Bob

New Study Yanks Away Glimmer of Hope on Climate Change.

According to NASA climate scientist Drew Shindell, the lead author of Sunday’s paper, the September IPCC study assumed aerosols were distributed uniformly over the Earth’s surface rather than concentrated over Northern cities. That assumption biased the IPCC’s results, says Shindell, causing them to conclude that the observed warming so far implied the possibility of low sensitivity.

Instead, says Shindell, when you account for the actual behavior of aerosols and other atmospheric pollutants such as ground-level ozone, the resulting conclusions about the Earth’s climate sensitivity are significantly more pessimistic than those in the IPCC’s study.
http://www.kcet.org/news/rewire/climate-change/new-study-yanks-away-glimmer-of-hope-on-climate-change.html

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