The second Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks).
Here's the summary for the July report:
The median Outlook value for September 2014 sea ice extent is 4.8 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.0 million square kilometers. Thus, the median value is slightly higher than the June value (4.7) and the distribution of Outlooks is slightly reduced relative to June. The overall range is now from 3.2 to 5.9 million square kilometers. These values compare to observed values of 4.3 million square kilometers in 2007, 4.6 million square kilometers in 2011, 3.6 million square kilometers in 2012, and 5.4 million square kilometers in 2013.
Sea ice declined at a pace more rapid than normal during June, particularly late in the month when extent decreased by over 100,000 square kilometers per day. The decline has since slowed somewhat.
The Sea Ice Outlook is a venue for discussion and networking and provides a transparent exercise in both scientific sea ice predictions as well as estimates from the public. The post-season activities will provide more of a scientific analysis of the methodologies, relative performance, etc.
This month's full report includes the comments on modeling outlooks and on regional predictions, a summary of current conditions, key statements from each Outlook, and links to view or download the full outlook contributions.
And here's the graph to go with the SIO, showing all the predictions (here's last month's version):
So, the median went up from 4.7 to 4.8 million km2, which is logical given the flip in weather conditions that put a damper on the fast declines in the two-three preceding weeks (more on that in the next ASI update this weekend). The highest prediction by Wang using the CFSv2 model went down from 6.3 to 5.9 million km2, though.
No WUWT poll was submitted for this July SIO, so we can't average it with the ASIF poll, which resulted in a predicted NSIDC September SIE average of 4.17 million km2 (up from 3.95 million km2 in June). You can check my spreadsheet with the poll results on Google Drive, to see if I've made a mistake. There will be a new and final poll on the ASIF, come August 1st. Be sure to vote, everyone! Even though there won't be a new record this year, it's still very interesting to see whether 2014 ends up near/in the top 3, or stick with 2013.
Here's some more context, ie the September minimums for the last 9 years (in millions km2, found here):