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Protege Cuajimalpa

Also, according to Climate Reanalyzer, from Friday to Wednesday, there is going to be above 0 ºC Kara, Laptev and even Arctic Basin (not all at the same time but big areas). Seems to me that it is to early for having that heatat the ASI.

Philip

Hi Neven,
this is off topic for the thread so feel free to delete it but I thought I would draw your attention to this article about a prediction by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI)

Philip

sorry I clicked post before I posted the link. silly me.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3551520/Arctic-sea-ice-reach-record-lows-summer-Blankets-cover-set-shrink-warmer-weather.html

Philip

and now my original comment has disappeared.
the link is to an article about a prediction by the Alfred Wegener Institute saying that it is likely that we will have a new record low this year having studied the current state of the ice.
wanted to draw your attention to this Neven feel free to delete as it is off topic for the thread.

A-Team

Nice work by Andreas T!

I posted some enhanced animations of ice melting into the warm ocean current west of Svalbard along with various simultaneous resources from nullschool such as a sea surface temperature anomaly animation with sensitized palette.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1504.msg74474.html#msg74474

Aaron Lewis

Most of the heat trapped by AGW goes into the oceans. In the past, that heat was carried north in the North Atlantic drift, and the heat radiated off through the very dry Arctic Atmosphere. The momentum of the North Atlantic drift, acting on the sea ice in the Greenland Sea, helped keep the sea ice across the Arctic, compressed with pressure ridges for mechanical strength. Under compression, the ice was more likely to overlap to become thicker, and stronger than to thin, spread out, and become weaker. Loss of the Greenland Sea ice, meant there was nothing for the North Atlantic Drift to push against, and contributed to the thinning and mechanical weakening of sea ice across the Arctic.

And, with more water vapor in the atmosphere, heat from the North Atlantic Drift is more likely to go to warming existing ice, than be radiated into space.

The 2007 Greenland Sea melt event was a precondition for the the Beaufort Gyre cracks and holes. It was a "tipping point". That is the BG defects could not exist when there was pressure from the North Atlantic Drift compacting Arctic sea ice.

These days, the extra heat in the North Atlantic Drift and increased level of greenhouse gases in the Arctic result in the melting of sea ice, rather than the extending and compressing of sea ice.

While the Arctic has gone from year-round sea ice to ice free (or vice-versa) many times before, it has never before done it in a single human lifetime. In some ways, it is the difference between a mule and a jet plane.

It is neat to see grand geology unfold in a single lifetime.

Neven
and now my original comment has disappeared.

Thanks for letting me know. I've released your comment from the spam bucket.

And other comments as well. Not many comments end up in the spam bucket nowadays, but some occasionally do. I don't get notified of this, and it's a bit of a drag for me to check.

So, please let me know (through mail or here) that a comment is stuck, and I'll release it.

the link is to an article about a prediction by the Alfred Wegener Institute saying that it is likely that we will have a new record low this year having studied the current state of the ice. wanted to draw your attention to this Neven feel free to delete as it is off topic for the thread.

I was at that very same press conference today! I was astounded, as usually these press conferences are about what happened last year, but this was actually about the past winter and how things aren't looking good at the moment (at the same time not implying that a new record low minimum is a done deal).

I'll have more on this too in days to come. Lots of interesting info at EGU this year.

Colorado Bob

New maps chart Greenland glaciers' melting risk

Researchers from the University of California, Irvine; NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California; and other research institutions combined all observations their various groups had made during shipboard surveys of the seafloors in the Uummannaq and Vaigat fjords in west Greenland between 2007 and 2014 with related data from NASA's Operation Icebridge and the NASA/U.S. Geological Survey Landsat satellites. They used the combined data to generate comprehensive maps of the ocean floor around 14 Greenland glaciers. Their findings show that previous estimates of ocean depth in this area were as much as several thousand feet too shallow.

Why does this matter? Because glaciers that flow into the ocean melt not only from above, as they are warmed by sun and air, but from below, as they are warmed by water.


Read more at: Link

Colorado Bob

http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2016/1-newmapschart.jpg

AbbottisGone

http://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/csb/index.php?section=234

I like figure 4 from this page... I was looking at the graphology for the seventeenth of April. It shows an inset of the time series variation for that particular day.

Does anyone else find that quite a good indicatorial tool?

I am in heaven!!!!!

VaughnA

This post on Weather Underground by Christopher Bert might be slightly off topic however it seems logical that some of this heat will likely continue to spread northward and affect the Arctic to an even greater degree:

Extraordinary Heat Wave Sweeps Southeast Asia and Points Beyond
By: Christopher C. Burt , 6:47 PM GMT on April 19, 2016

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/extraordinary-heat-wave-sweeps-southeast-asia-and-points-beyond

Also, the Climate Reanalyzer 7 day forecast shows continued heat in several days over India and Pakistan:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ASIAPAC-CED

Although the forecast for Pakistan/India is for slightly cooler temperatures for the next few days, if this heat trend continues for another month and a half I am wondering how survivable these conditions will become by the end of May/early June which is typically when it is the hottest there. It also makes sense that some of this heat will make it to the Arctic considering the current air circulation patterns.

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