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Kevin O'Neill

Neven, your work keeping this site going is commendable. You might consider using this community's knowledge by accepting guest posts on a regular basis to keep the site active.

And I'm sure there's someone you trust here that might even take over moderation duties.

Thanks, regardless :)

I Ballantinegray1

Good Luck with everything Neven. Thank you so much for setting everything up that we have all enjoyed over the years.

You have brought many people together and , who knows, some of those folk may well make a big difference in getting out our message and providing solutions.

Thanks again for everything!

wayne

Neven,

Unfolding current sea ice events are not so surprising given that we observed the culminating reasons for years. We have a taste of the coming future will look like. The North Pole gets pummeled by a continuous stream of cyclones in darkness because winter isn't what it use to be:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/11/dispersed-emaciated-heat-diminished-sea.html

Of course Arctic sea ice is part and parcel of the winter machine. So it is ironic, a very Greek word "ironi", that you live at the beginning, to the West, right next to a massive cooling of Eurasia because world wide circulation has dramatically changed in a consistent way. Be witness to your studies firsthand without actually seeing sea ice disappear in person. It is an accomplishment and a privilege to understand larger complex climate systems, but being part of the change gives more insight. I am sure the fake skeptics will use the cooling part of the world to the max of their deceiving skills.

Rest well, the sabbatical is well deserved. We will hang out.

Sam

Neven,

Thank you for all you have done in creating this wonderful site and forum.

You are in no way alone. I think nearly all of us here are in very nearly the same place as yourself. Trying to make sense out of any reasonable way forward from here is crazy making.

Peace and best wishes to you and your wife, and to us all.

Sam

Neven

Thanks, Wayne. You were one of the people who put me on this track, 10 years ago, at RealClimate. PatrickLogicman was another, blogging about Arctic sea ice extensively.

You might consider using this community's knowledge by accepting guest posts on a regular basis to keep the site active.

Thanks, Kevin. I'm always open to guest posts.

And I'm sure there's someone you trust here that might even take over moderation duties.

Here not so much, but the Forum is another matter. Someone offered help a while ago. I'll ask him to help out before next year's melting season. Although right now, things are busier there than they have been so far, with 20 new members in just the past week.

BallantinegrayI and Sam, thanks back to you too. I'm not gone, just trying to let go for a while.

Scott

Neven,
Thank you so much for what you have done. Your even-keel and thoughtfulness have always set you and your blog apart, and are very much appreciated.
Good luck with the house, educational efforts, and at achieving the balance you are looking for.
Best wishes,
Scott

Etienne Bayenet

Congratulation for the work done. I also experienced the burn out story and it means that somebody else has to continue the job, with his own feelings and his own ideas. In my case, it was difficult to find somebody to continue, but there was no other way out. This didn't reduce the value of the work done, but was the sign that priorities had changed and that a minimal level of understanding had been found. I'm proud of what we achieved just like you can be proud of all what you did.

Concerning sea ice and climate change, I find that the information is much easier to find now than it was when I first discovered your blog and the forum, and I really believe that we all will continue your job, some like me more locally, others on a global level.

Good luck,

Etienne

VaughnA

Neven, yes I remember when Patrick and you more or less worked together. A lot of good has come from that. Consider the popularity of this blog and the Arctic See Ice Forum. If anything is going to save the world it is forums like these. You have created something that now has a life of its own. You have done amazing things which will continue to educate me plus all the readers of these forums.

As for growing food, I do that too. I grow more than I can eat myself so I give or trade it to neighbors for different garden stuff. I dehydrate and can vegetables and fruit. I feel fortunate that I do this and I hope you will too. So enjoy your time away from here when you can be away. Thank you for facilitating the information that flows here and sharing your knowledge of Sea Ice and climate principles.

stan

Neven--

I almost never post here, but I wanted to extend my thanks to you for creating a website that has assembled so much amazing talent and has such an incredible signal to noise ratio.

I have learned so much by coming here, and you should feel proud of your achievement.

Tony

Good on you, Neven, for getting your priorities sorted. Nothing is going to change the trajectory of Arctic sea ice, so it's merely an observation game (plus a few hypotheses thrown in). But it'll be good to see you posting from time to time.

viddaloo

Arctic Sea Ice Collapse 18—20 November: As early as October 11th — at 9.94 million km² — this app predicted 9.8 before the end of November this year. Guess what? It's November 20th and we're below 9.8 million km² AAE.

Click for full blog post.

Mtough

Neven - I am an ultimate Lurker but see you as such a friend after 5 plus years. You really seem to say what I think and have the balance, humility and intelligence to get so much right.

Come back when all is good and appropriate in your world and say thank you to your family from me and many others for sharing you with us on what is and has been an incredible journey. A sad, mad, bad but enthralling race of consequences.

Thank you for shining the light.

Neven

Thanks, Mtough. You're making me blush. :-)

Andy Lee Robinson

Thanks for everything you've done Neven, (and will continue to do!), your ASI blog is still the #1 place to go for news and info!

Meanwhile this month's anomaly is totally astonishing. It looks like the 2017 melt season has begun already!

btw - you can get free ssl certs from https://letsencrypt.org/ - I've used them for a while now on my servers.

Steve

Neven,

Odd, I don't know you, have never met you but have come to this site 100's of times for your valuable updates, and I want to express my gratitude for the work you have done and the knowledge you have shared.

I am just a guy, super concerned about the future of our plant, for my kids and my eventual grand children.

I am sure I don't have any friends that follow a sea ice blog, but I speak passionately about the state of our planet because I do. I share our concerns with my friends and will continue to share with them the knowledge I obtain.

Peace and Love

Hans Gunnstaddar

Thanks for what you have done here with this site, Neven. Very much have enjoyed the exchange of ideas. I've tried the forum before but always much preferred the main page's latest post with which to find out what is going on and interact with other posters and their information. Why do things I like always have to change? I like something in a store and they discontinue the product, or they rearrange the store and I can't find anything. I'm sure it won't be anything like it was, but anyway, all the best to you in your endeavors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/21/things-are-getting-weird-in-the-polar-regions/?utm_term=.cb1332f9e237

Meanwhile, take a gander at the two graphs at the above link. Both the Arctic and Antarctic are simultaneously at very low extents. With what's been happening in the Arctic, that's disconcerting cubed! If both poles begin to decline in concert the downward spiral of ice could jump into a much higher gear, particularly with the 5th year in the repeating 5 year cycles to occur in 2017 (unless the pattern is broken).

To those of us in the States, Happy Thanksgiving this coming Thursday!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/21/things-are-getting-weird-in-the-polar-regions/?utm_term=.cb1332f9e237

D

Neven, thanks for building this community and blogging with humility, honesty and accuracy. I don't know how you are going to be able to stay away in the coming year if what we are seeing now is an indication of things to come...and I think it is.

If you do feel compelled to come back you might consider doing it as a group blog, using the talented people that post on the forum.

I'll see you on the forum.

Thanks for all the fish.

FishOutofWater - in real life, George Birchard

Susan Anderson

Neven, your intelligence, warmth, just enough tolerance and understanding of the variety of humanity, and dedication have made this a remarkable place. It has made a difference in public understanding as well.

Many of us are thinking of local concentration now, in the face of recent events.

I hope you are able to take this time off. I hope someone else (or several) can assume the time-consuming activity of keeping up with events.

The very best of best wishes to you!

OldLeatherneck

Neven,

I want to join the others who have expressed their thanks for all you have sacrificed, personally and financially to provide this platform (ASIB) and the Forum (ASIF) for the sharing of knowledge on all things Arctic. We would also be remiss not to thank your wife and daughter for sharing you with this helterskelter community. Your insight and witticism be sorely missed.

I am very proud to say that I was one of the first members of the forum when it was launched almost 4 years ago. It has become a very valuable source of information.

BTW, I threw a few more Euros your way, knowing that continuing this site and the Forum will still require financial support. I hope others will do the same!!

Sincerely,

OLN

Apocalypse4Real

Neven,

This site and your blogging has made a profound difference in my perspective and engagement in Arctic and global climate issues. The contributions and comments by many whom I appreciate for sharing learning and expereince on this page and the Forum encouraged me to fight for, and receive, permission to teach a course on climate issues (including a healthy dose of all things Arctic) this semester at a college that has not engaged in climate science.

All the best with the well deserved sabbatical and with your family life.

What has started on the ASIB will continue, too much is at stake not to.

A4R

Martin Gisser

Thanks for your service to mankind.

NeilT

Neven I was always amazed by your energy and effort in the way you gathered and presented information for us all to use and talk about. Also your diligent reading and controlling of the blog and the forums.

I know this kind of thing takes a toll. It's addictive and hard to pull away from but your home and your family must come first.

I look forward to seeing your excellent analyses and content but not until you have time to do it.

Thanks for this site and the forum and somewhere to bring these things to light.

All the best.

viddaloo
As early as October 11th — at 9.94 million km² — this app predicted 9.8 before the end of November this year. Guess what? It's November 20th and we're below 9.8 million km² AAE.

It's amazing how an app can do that, must be some real mad coding skills and Arctic deep knowledge, eh? And even the guys who wow to take the challenge of putting out some estimates seem to shy away at the last minute, leaving this app as the only entity making such estimates. Must mean it is the best! :)

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Thank you Neven: all the more because I think Trump has won so much power he won't be able to not get a second term.... and I think we all find that more than super scary and only this blog can inform us of everything we need to know.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Hans, what is this 5-year cycle you speak of?

D

Neven,

I have read your blog several times a month since 2012. I've always been impressed with the breadth of information and the clarity at which you explained it. The world is changing quickly and you have worked to make people more aware. Thank you for your years of work.

Mark W.

Protege Cuajimalpa

We are really going to miss you, Neven, but on the other hand, I hope that you can relax, fulfill other goals and have a great family life!

Happy Sabbatical! And come back, from time to time!

Tony

AnotherJourneybyTrain, the 5-year cycle is, I believe, an hypothesis by Viddaloo, whereby plotting average annual extent (actually, running 12 month mean) seems to show a repeating pattern of 5 year cycles, with each 5th year showing a marked decline. I'm not sure if there is enough data to have a lot of confidence in the pattern but the 12 month running mean hit a new low this year, already, in the 4th year of the cycle, so next year could be very interesting.

However, this is just my recollection. Maybe Viddaloo could clarify this.

wayne

Viddaloo,

-1 million daily extent prior to minima and now after, seems a latent -1 million km2 ingrained in the system even if not always measured as so.

But the larger picture is obvious, the scattering of leads, not only confined to the just frozen Arctic Ocean areas, but throughout its entire surface is a "dry run" to a wide open Arctic Ocean in total darkness:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/11/arctic-ocean-air-in-total-darkness.html

navegante

Oh man you're kidding

Hans Gunnstaddar

"...the 5-year cycle is, I believe, an hypothesis by Viddaloo."

That is a pattern I originally noticed and even a YouTube video was made by a friend of mine, but Viddaloo had some additional data and a graph showing it actually went back a few years further than I had noticed. Jim Hunt also gets a nod for data used in that video. In any case, the pattern since 2012 fits and unless it's broken this coming melt season, it's likely we should see another new record low minimum. Based on 2007 & 2012, ~2.58 million sq. kilometers is the prediction for 2017.

viddaloo

This one, Hans? PS: I have 2007, 2012 and (soon) 2017 as Year #1 in the cycle. I guess due to the strong signature loss of annual average during those years. Next 4 years are sort of like 'coping' with what happened the first year, naively speaking.


Click for full size.


NeilT

The 5 year pattern is one which emerged from the step change in the Arctic which happened in 2005. I'm sure it will repeat again this season if only because we are setting up for exceptional melt in 2017 and there is always a backlash when that much ice melts and takes away that much heat from the system.

However, don't worry too much about it. Once the ice volume is gone, all cycles will change because there won't be any melt buffer left.....

I've been obsessing over the Autumn 10 year pattern I believe I see in the charts. Roughly mapped to the solar flux over the last two solar cycles.

It's just a theory but, you know, not all theories are totally wrong. I've been using 2006 to predict what is likely to happen in 2016 and it has followed the pattern. But you can't draw an exact parallel when 1/3 of the ice volume vanishes between 2006 and 2016.

wayne

NeilT

Also can't dry parallel because solar flux, ie sun spots:

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png

lower than previous 11 year cycle, similar to the 1920's and 30's, when, according to banana brain contrarians, there was wide open water all over the Arctic, such whence vicious man eating Tigers roamed the Kalahari.

Robert S

Neven: Have a great sabbatical. I've learned so much from this blog, and the global perspective it gives to climate change is so valuable to those of us involved in more localized projects around the world. But I think it's great that you're now taking your focus to a more local level... and it sounds like a lot of us should start a new "gardening in a time of climate change" blog!

viddaloo

I think it's silly to just out of hand dismiss this very apparent pattern. We see the 5th year (in my numeration) going lowest ever, 2016 being the latest example of this. But we also see break–pattern tendencies: The latest of these is the extreme abrupt plunge of this 5th year (2016), a year early if there was a persistent 5–year pattern. We also see 2013 (Year 2) going lower than Year 1, although 2008 (also Year 2) didn't. This tells me Year 3 (2019) could potentially go lower than both #1 & #2, this time around. 201y may be breaking with the pattern through its extreme October Plunge. Things may be shifting to 4–year or even less. It's hard to say what will happen when we're in Uncharted Waters.

Werther

Neven, good evening,

I thank you very much for having shared this platform. For me, it was and still is a comfort to sense that I'm not alone.
I had my own experience that there's a circle of interest and one of influence. I did have a lot of difficulty to make the difference.
I have learned so much. Thanks and so long!

NeilT

Yes Wayne the cycle was low, but the 2007/12 events were at roughly the same flux and 17 will be roughly the same flux too. I track as solarham.net and looking at the monthly smoothed trend charts, whilst sunspots do influence the flux, they don't really change it by that much overall.

So I look at the flux levels and they are roughly similar.

But the heat, the CO2 and the ice are not. So I look for similar types of events with more severe impact on the arctic.

Might not be scientific but it does while away the hours I spend living away from home. :-)

wayne

Flux is right Neil, but that is a secret unbeknownst to the fake skeptics, not to worry, the secret is good here, they never read science facts without scoffing and reverence to the dumbest theories.
These days of extreme warming in Earth's shadow long night are a presage never really seen before, Viddaloo is right that its uncharted, till now, but we saw it coming. That's what happens when the mind is not cluttered by science turned off willfully.

Lord Soth

Neven, thank you for your blog, and compiling a world class consolidated source for all the graphs and articles on the arctic, and discussion blog.

This morning I experienced a second spring in November.

While I was walking my dogs this morning, I encountered some lavender flowers in the ditch blooming in the dim pale light the November sky.

November in Nova Scotia has been unseasonably warm, and although I have seen plenty of false springs at the end of Winter, In all my 57 years I have never seen nature fooled into thinking that spring comes directly after fall.

It may be a brief respite, and those spring flowers may soon be under snow, but I fear that my children will eventually see the day, when winter is no more.

Good luck on your Sabbatical Neven

PatrickLogicman

Enjoy yourself!

As a fellow sufferer from depression you have my simpathy. Sympathy even. :-)

George Phillies

Thank you for your time and effort. And enjoy your sabbatical.

Hans Gunnstaddar

"This one, Hans? PS: I have 2007, 2012 and (soon) 2017 as Year #1 in the cycle."

Viddaloo, Slightly different way to look at it but I have 2017 as the 5th year in the repeating cycle, due to 2007 & 2012 setting new minima records followed by rebound years, while anticipating 2017 will most likely set a new record with 2018 in the rebound range. However the pattern is viewed though, the repeating pattern can be easily seen in your colorful graph.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

..and the world celebrated(with possibly the bulk of it owed to Neven):


    'Open mind' on climate change


...In the same interview with reporters, editors and other newspaper officials at the Times headquarters in Manhattan, Mr Trump also softened his stance on whether humans have played a role in causing climate change.


In the lead up to the US election, he repeatedly called climate change a hoax and suggested the global phenomenon was created by the Chinese to impede American business.


Earlier this month one of his aides told Reuters the New York businessman was seeking quick ways to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris accord to combat climate change.

On Tuesday, Mr Trump told the Times he thinks there is "some connectivity" between human activity and climate change, reporter Mike Grynbaum tweeted.

"It depends on how much," the reporter quoted Mr Trump as saying.


Asked whether the US would withdraw from climate change accords, the reporter tweeted that Mr Trump said: "I'm looking at it very closely. I have an open mind to it."

Mr Trump, who takes office on January 20, also said he was thinking about climate change and American competitiveness and "how much it will cost our companies", the reporter said, without elaborating....

source: all over the celebrating internet

AnotherJourneybyTrain

I did go back to look at the Charctic, from NSIDC, and 2005 does indeed look to be some kind of year of no-return when looking at the years before and after it in comparison.

Does anyone know why 2005 seems so special?

NeilT

I'm sure there is some scientific answer to it but for the half decade leading up to 2000 we'd been hearing little but constant record breaking in temperatures, 97/98 particularly with the huge Nino.

It must have been doing a lot of damage to the ice, certainly thicknesses were falling.

Personally I feel that something had to give some time with all that heat and 2005 just happened to be the breaking point opening the gateway to 2007 and 2012 and the cycles which have followed.

Watching it at the time, everyone was stunned, we got a new island, the news was full of it.

It died down a bit after the 2006 "near miss", only to be followed by 2007.

I feel that the huge losses of 2007 and 2012 have overshadowed what happened in 2005 but I like to remember it's when things really started to get interesting.

Etienne Bayenet

Hello,

There is one specific thing about 2005. It is considered the year of peak oil for conventional oil. Conventional oil is the one that is easy to pump. So starting 2005, there was a shift toward other energy (coal, oil sands...) that produce more CO2 when burning or when producing.
In this context I found an interesting graph about C02 emissions :
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT
You really see that CO2 goes faster up since around 2003.
When you look at the world oil consumption, you don't see that change in the slope.
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/

Furthermore, you have an article (NSIDC and Max Planck Institute) making a direct link between CO2 production and sea ice melting in the artic.
http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/us-and-german-researchers-calculate-individual-contribution-climate-change

Maybe links have to be explained, but the correlation seems clear.

Sorry, I don't have time to control the sources I give, but data seems ok.

Best regards,

Etienne

Etienne Bayenet

Hello,

Here is the graph for coal consumption, very impressive :
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=coal&graph=consumption

Couldn't find much about oil sand production, but here are the data for Alberta (a small % is conventional).
http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilProduction#alberta

Best regards,

Etienne

Etienne Bayenet

Hello,

Looks like my post before does not appear correctly, so I put it once again. Please Neven erase what is not needed.

Hello,

There is one specific thing about 2005. It is considered the year of peak oil for conventional oil. Conventional oil is the one that is easy to pump. So starting 2005, there was a shift toward other energy (coal, oil sands...) that produce more CO2 when burning or when producing.
In this context I found an interesting graph about C02 emissions :
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT
You really see that CO2 goes faster up since around 2003.
When you look at the world oil consumption, you don't see that change in the slope.
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/
Here is the graph for coal consumption, very impressive :
http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?product=coal&graph=consumption
Couldn't find much about oil sand production, but here are the data for Alberta (a small % is conventional).
http://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilProduction#alberta

Furthermore, you have an article (NSIDC and Max Planck Institute) making a direct link between CO2 production and sea ice melting in the artic.
http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/us-and-german-researchers-calculate-individual-contribution-climate-change

Maybe links have to be explained, but the correlation seems clear.

Best regards,

Etienne

Rob Dekker

Etienne, your graph goes through 2013, but the latest data (through 2015) shows that coal consumption is on the decline :
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Global-Coal-Consumption.png

Not sure if that decline will be sustained, but it suggests that countries around the world are finding better ways to generate electricity.

The tar sands in Alberta are capped by pipeline transport, so as long as the Keystone XL is not built (and oil prices stay low) tar sand production cannot increase.

Etienne Bayenet

hello,

The first half of my comment is missing. It is the curve of CO2 emissions :
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT
And the study regarding the correlation between CO2 emissions and sea ice extend
http://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/us-and-german-researchers-calculate-individual-contribution-climate-change

This was to explain why 2005 is so special. You know the subject better than I do, it's all about peak of conventionnal oil and a switch to more CO2 intensive sources of energy.

Best regards,

Etienne

wayne

Hi Rob,

All this oil may be needed for plastics and aircraft for eons of generations. Done properly, ethically, remediating the lands, requiring many well payed skilled workers. I was inspired by my old chemistry book about air pollution, it decried in the seventies: it is not wise to burn fuels to drive a car which can otherwise be powered by electricity. However, the petro industries are deeply paranoid, as we know, some have paid the contrarians to gum up IPCC progress amongst other devious deeds, they should not worry though, we will always need their product.

But we are not wise enough to suggest something like: increase the premium on wood products for construction, not a tax, make it more expensive than oil petrochemical plastics. By enforcing selection cutting, a slower extraction process requiring more jobs than clear cutting. Make everything possible with plastics, replace wood products with plastics. As a result, CO2 would be more extracted from the atmosphere by renewed more expansive healthier forests and less of CO2 would be dumped directly to air by internal combustion engines. Some likewise collective plan including all industries and Governments, a guide of sorts, the next step above the IPCC. But again the paranoid isolationists, fearing one world Government action would be dead set against that. We need better mental health for the masses :)

NeilT

Of course having an internal combustion engine which uses more than 30% of the heat energy would be good too. If we're going to have to extract the Hydrogen we run them on.....

Nothing is joined up which means governments, people and companies are just jumping on bandwagons. Some for fame, some in an attempt to make things better and others in a cynical attempt to boost profit.

I guess we might be better asking ourselves if there is some creature more fitting to inherit the new environment we're creating.

Because humanity is not looking that hot right now...

AnotherJourneybyTrain

Jevons Paradox makes wall street tick... it's not efficient (i.e. using fossil fuels instead of electricty to run cars) and that is exactly what provides jobs for the middleman. There is a certain stability, however: it is structure.

Systems can always be improved or they too disintegrate according to the second law of Thermodynamics.

People need to be occupied or there is no law and order. The problems of governments picking fossil fuels as winners is that they then become impossible to disentangle from the regulated marketplace as (in)efficiencies have been built around those free-kicks.

Susan Anderson

Trump was doing what he does best, suiting his words to his audience. He was also doing the other thing he does best, dissembling.

You underestimate the power of the Republican caucus in the US. Climate denial is on top, and in January it will have control, of all of our government. Only the climate itself can intervene now, unless we are lucky enough to prove the election was stolen (which it was, but I won't go into that here).

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/nasa-earth-donald-trump-eliminate-climate-change-research
"Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on ‘politicized science’"

PatrickLogicman

Neven, thanks for the honourable mention. :-)

I recently started blogging again. I saw the Daily Fail article today about the Antartctic and my blood boiled.

Links to the facts in my latest article -
http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/great_scott_climate_change_deniers_accept_models-180722

Yes, I know, it's not Arctic news but hey! We need to keep the unscientific opposition on its toes.

Enjoy your sabattically enhanced life, Neven!

subgeometer

Well done Neven, I hope everything works out for you and your family.

As for Trump, dumping Paris makes China the leader, officially as well as otherwise

NeilT

Patrick, I saw the one in the express. Just one day after another article in the UK press (not the daily manipulate or the "genital"express hereafter to be known as the GExpress... but elsewhere); which shows that Pine Island Galcier has been retreating since the 1940's. It only drains about 25% of the WAIS but no biggie there is it.

I thought about logging in and pointin out that Antarctic SEA ice neither raises (or lowers), sea levels and does not lock the glaciers in place. Clearly shown by GRACE which shows just how much landfast ice is heading into the sea every year... NET.

However it's a thankless task which is all but a waste of time. Those who want to believe will read and believe and nothing you say will change their minds. Those who don't will go and check out what is real and what is not, to whom nothing need be said beyond the constant and enduring message that we're screwing up our liveable climate.

I've decided that outrage and anger is replaced by resigned indifference. If a dog waters a lamppost, it is not vandalism, nor public indecency. It's just being a dog.

John Garland

I hardly ever have posted here, but I read your blog religiously. Hope things work out for you and that you come back from your sabbatical refreshed and re-energized.

Thanks for all you've done for everybody.

Neven

Thanks, John, Patrick!

Kevin McKinney

Nevin, let me add my heartfelt thanks for everything you've done and created here, as well as my best wishes for your 'sustainable lifestyle project.' We're trying to do something of the sort ourselves, albeit toned down a bit, as we're a generation older than you and must plan on lower *personal* energy levels over the next decade or two!

Thanks, too, for the chance to collaborate with you. It was a pleasure and a privilege!

I don't make it by here as often as I used to--more paid employment (good), and a shift of emphasis toward studying and writing more about mitigation strategies (hopefully good, but who knows?) But dropping by is always like visiting a family home. Thanks again for yor role as builder-in-chief of this cyber-home!

Neven

Thanks, Kevin!

wayne

I've heard several reports on the radio about our sea ice conditions. Dr Jennifer Francis sounded right, Dr Serreze from snow and ice was spot on as well, except for wide open summer Arctic Ocean in 20 or 30 years, this wont excite a whole lot of people. Inuit hunters rather perfectly described the situation, one in North Baffin had trouble hunting because of very thin ice, the other in South Baffin enjoyed the warmer weather and thinner sea ice because the boating season has been much longer. But in our Arctic world microcosm, the situation of the planet was explained, some people, Northerners will enjoy warmer weather, but not all people will think likewise, to the contrary it is a bad thing.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/warmer-arctic-ocean-temperatures-delay-sea-ice-1.3865025

Mean time Dr Serreze has noted with most of us that there is finally a cooling over the Arctic Ocean. However will it last? Or do the models encapsulate the complete geography of our changing sea ice?

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/11/unprecedented-arctic-ocean-surface-air.html

Hans Gunnstaddar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOm2t3QMR6k

Good video by Paul Beckwith about deep water mixing on the Atlantic side coupled with high wave action, combining to stall ice formation and that was in October!

viddaloo

I hope none of you watches NZ morning television:

— Humans 'don't have 10 years' left thanks to climate change - scientist

wayne

AGM problems are very real and mostly cumbersome far far away from the Arctic:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/nov/25/bolivia-drought-water-rationing-crops

One example of many, we are nowhere near serious enough in redressing the inevitable.

wayne

AGW of course....

NeilT

Well he has a certain point. Also he's a good communicator and might actually be more of an influencer than half the climate lobby.

cue conversation...

"We're screwed as a species suck it up and enjoy it whilst you can."

"What do you mean we're screwed, we can fix it."

"Don't be an idiot. To fix it we'd have had to go on a war footing 30 years ago and deny ourselves all the things we believe makes life worth living for 100 years."

"I'm not being an idiot, of course we can fix this we can fix anything."

"Of course you can but you don't want to so just enjoy it and "let it go"."

"You're being unreasonable... I'll prove you wrong. We're going to fix this...."

It's how you deal with children. In Climate Change half the population are acting like children, so why not treat them like it.

The vast majority of people who are aware of Climate Change and believe it is an issue (although not quite an immediate one), believe that we'll "fix it sometime", when we're ready to "do the work" and that the current moves are inconvenient and not yet necessary.

The fact that the entire species has been driving Climate Change for the last 150 years and will continue to drive it "during" the efforts to mitigate it has not, yet, percolated down into their consciousness.

In some ways I believe that telling people the E.L.E is here, now and doesn't need an asteroid because we're doing just fine on our own; is another way of communicating the issue and forcing people to face the issue head on.

viddaloo

According to Cory Morningstar in a recent interview podcast: — It has always been 1C, the maximum, that we should not exceed. And so the whole 2C has been a complete reframing, I mean, it's not science at all, it's just a mechanism to keep growing the economy, keep the system going for the few that it serves. And so this whole thing about 2C is, you know, outrageous to begin with. At one point, all the climate scientists involved at that time, would have fully known that it was 1C. Then, basically, an economist, William Nordhaus, in particular, suggested 2C, so we could keep growing, because obviously we can't mitigate climate AND grow the economy at the same time. Plus keep the industrial civilisation machine running.

Hans Gunnstaddar

"The vast majority of people who are aware of Climate Change and believe it is an issue (although not quite an immediate one), believe that we'll "fix it sometime", when we're ready to "do the work" and that the current moves are inconvenient and not yet necessary."

Unfortunately, that sizes up the situation rather concisely, NeilT. Also I would say the human experience is one of consensus. For some strange reason the majority have to 'agree', a sort of creaming line over time on a graph of assorted and widespread opinions on the topic. Sure, you'd think it would be decided by experts in the field of study with lots of higher education behind them, but unfortunately the whole response ends up being rather weak and non-committal. Even the latest Paris agreement had to be accepted as voluntary because the US Senate & House would not sign on to it as binding.

It's a situation in which it has to spiral out of control to the point of heart palpitations, emotionally distraught people running around like chickens with their heads cut off to get an internationally binding and commensurate response, but of course then it's way too late. Let's face it, it's probably already too late, yet what is so tragic is dithering still pervades.

viddaloo

Neven,

My guess is the first data will be displayed when the month is over (around mid-November or so).

Not a single number yet from the ESA / CryoSat tax–payer–draining program, Neven. Looks like this CryoSat thing was really just a story of how 'ESA has wasted hundreds of millions of euros' (quoting nick on the Forum).

Lynn Shwadchuck

Thanks, Neven, for developing a great community of people who care. Don't back down. Your family and your local community and economy are important.

Alison Fort

Thank you so much for all you have done Nevan - you've earned a break!

Paul Briggs

Thank you. You've been an invaluable help in my own work.

Rob Dekker

viddaloo, I have had my reservations of using Cryosat for sea ice. After all, it is quite hard to determine freeboard at 1 cm accuracy (for 10 cm ice thickness accuracy) from hundreds of km up in space.

Honestly, I have more trust in the models (like PIOMAS) that use temperature data to determine ice growth and thickness.

But since Cryosat data does come out consistent with PIOMAS
http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html
this puts a bit more trust in BOTH Cryosat AND PIOMAS model.

subgeometer

Viddaloo, we both and most everyone here knows that 'growth' is not a sustainable or even survivable economic model. (unless the growth is contained to the abstract numeric sphere, how many $ is immaterial).

But the current model spruiked by mainstream economists and the financial system also does not produce growth anyway, except in pollution, and social outcomes grow worse, declining life expectancy in the US underclasses for example. Investment in energy transition would bring employment, more support of the children(John Christensen), and a bit of time to work out a fair non-growth system for those of us we collectively can keep alive as the shit hits the fan.Or things will turn extremely ugly as we make our exit

All human systems depend on some kind of consent

subgeometer

It's a bit OT but since we are talking about swans I have to say, having grown up in and lived in Australia most of my life, black swans are normal, white ones are creatures of myth and fairytale, and ballet etc,

Espen Olsen

Hi Neven,

I remember the days when we were in the class room, following PatrickLogicman, I will thank both you and Patrick for what it resulted in:

Espen

viddaloo

Neil & Hans,

We're in a lot of trouble, and (with Big Lebowski) could be entering a world of hurt. I don't think there's any doubt about that. Lies, deceit, treason etc were a big part of how we got here. Greed and controlling the message. Now the science needs to split with the pollutics again. We cannot have polluticians telling us what the true state of the climate is: Who's going to trust them at this point.

I don't think we can solve the core problem by keeping it real. But at least it will be more real. We should look for the proverbial 'True North' and give people more accurate information.

PatrickLogicman

"I remember the days when we were in the class room, following PatrickLogicman, I will thank both you and Patrick for what it resulted in:"

Espen: thank sincerely you for that very kind comment.

I was able to devote my time to my legal problems rather than Arctic Ice blogging thanks to Neven having created such a great resource.

Now that Neven is taking a sabbatical, and now that my legal problems are nearing a just conclusion, I am trying once more to blog about climate science.

I have an English translation of an historical paper in the pipeline.

Best regards,
Patrick.

Espen Olsen

HI Patrick good to hear from you!
re:Petermann Gletscher
I realized how unpleasant science could be!

John Bilsky

Neven,

A big hearty congratulations on your decision to take a break for a while. I've been following your blog just about from its inception and am SOOOOO grateful for all the work you've put into it.

My 2¢ as far as the continuation of the blog goes something like this... when I took a sabbatical from teaching, I was "required" to submit what I did and it did prove worthwhile. Maybe... just maybe... you could do the same just to stay in touch with your audience. I suspect it would be relatively easy to post some easy reading paragraph or two on what Neven has done with his family and with his newly built home and at the same time let the scholars who *do* plenty of additional work on the state of out ice, take the time to continue doing their own thing. The Arctic Ice is in your blood but surely the sabbatical will keep you from running cold.

Stay warm and continue to be true to yourself and your family FIRST.
Many blessings man.

JB

John Bilsky

*** the state of OUR ice **** oopsie. :)

Hans Gunnstaddar

Get your drift, viddaloo. Meanwhile, just as it looked like ice extent was once again charging ahead, the extent graph to the right of Jaxa's (ver. 2) is more up to date, with a date of the 27th, shows extent beginning to stall again, taking a dip to the right.

Interesting how the extent line as it heads up is undulating; building then dipping in a repeating wave pattern, like the momentum is there then suddenly it falls off again. Kind of like an engine has fuel, then it doesn't, rinse, repeat...

wayne


Hi Hans

"Kind of like an engine has fuel, then it doesn't, rinse, repeat..."

That is because there is a forever war between Winter-dark-cold and Summer- sunny-warm, endless saga of which winter is beginning to systematically weaken year by year. The story today is finally cold over the part of the Arctic Ocean nearest to Siberia about 6 weeks late:

http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2016/11/late-one-sided-winter-start-example-of.html

Now let's see if the sea ice thickness favors the dark side.

Neven

Thanks, Lynn, Alison, Paul, Espen and John!

viddaloo

Guy says 2026, but my app cannot see winter sea ice lasting quite that long:

Click graph for full post.

NeilT

Vid, that depends on whether you ascribe to the theory that there will be a re-growth in 2018/19 or not.

Which would be just enough to put the event off till 2022.

We shall see.

wayne

I think the extreme alarmism view, a justifiably scary no sea ice at all scenario, is overrated, it makes good pr against AGW, but it will take too long before it happens. Dr Serreze comment of 20 to 30 years will all but extinguish action, because we live in a wired internet world reacting to immediate news. Only scientists panic about the 20 to 30 years ahead of time, those who agree with these scientists
find it hard to convince the rest of the world for action in order to avoid such an incident.

There will be always some sea ice as long as Greenland has a lot of glacier ice cooling Arctic summers. However, I give it probabilities for the next 5 seasons, I don't like probabilities but we don't have access to sea ice animation models which involve trillions of calculations, more than my brain can do :), sea ice at minima probabilities:

1- More than 4 million km2 JAXA extent: 20%

2- 2 to 4 million km2 60%,

3- Near 0 to 2 million 20%.

Near 0 because Greenland's ice will not vanish so quickly, it has huge katabatic influence along with partner in cooling crime Ellesmere Island.

For the fake skeptics who live in a linear one dimension mathematic fantasies, there is such things in the real geophysical world as variations. Finally and most importantly, I see huge influence in weather patterns right now, due to current state of sea ice, this is the 24 hour a day story to cover, fit for the current internet world. Alas, on the science front lines, brought to you by science born technologies, are TV and internet weather presenters, completely focused on their little, as they say on NBC "neck of the woods". Rarely do they make any connections aside with past statistics, they usually do not educate the people they serve, they can or should do so more, make sea ice a daily presentation, make it important as it is. Yet the world melts as TV presenters sleep walk in front of their green screens.

D-Penquin

Neven - A Tribute

I have lurked for many years and posted a few comments recently.

Your blog has created a new perspective in my life with a completely new sense of values.

I have read all the tributes paid to you following your announcement. My tribute to you is the aggregate of all the wonderful and gracious comments that you have received and undoubtably will receive in the future in recognition of your selfless work on this Arctic sea ice blog and elsewhere.

To you, your wife and daughter I wish you all good health with peace-of-mind and happiness in your recently completed home.

NeilT

Very true Wayne.

However there are step changes. 2005 was one. 2007 was another. 2012 was another.

Personally I believe 2017 is going to be something special. No evidence except that it is possible and even quite likely given the state the ice will be in after the winter.

I was talking to my Grandson at the weekend and he's quite aware. However he is one who ascribes to the "we'll fix it later" attitude.

When I explained to him the sheer impetus we would have to overcome and the fact that every person on the planet is contributing and will continue to contribute, to the problem, even as we try to fix it, we finally came to the conclusion that the most likely possible technology would be a solar shield which could shield about 1/4 of the planet.

The cost of building which, including the pollution it would take to launch it into space, would be prohibitive with current technology.

So I guess we get to watch it.

I did my duty last week by discussing with a professor in an energy research department about HDR energy recovery. The sad part is that whilst he labelled my idea's "very interesting", the drilling technology for steerable drilling is simply not good enough today to apply it.

Well the idea is out there anyway especially the part about being able to recover energy from very close to a magma source without the risk of water causing an explosive event.

I can go back to watching and ruminating and thinking about other "gadgets".

wayne

NeilT ,

Magma or internal heat is a great idea, too bad the drill expert oil companies don't see the ca$$h to be made there. 2017 looks grim from today's vantage point, I like predicting after the Maxima, usually we took a break at this time of the year, so I am looking forward for winter to take over big time, but it is coming very slowly, we see the the future unfold, coming winters Arctic Ocean will have much looser pack ice all winter long maintaining a feedback loop of continuous cyclonic intrusions and clouds amongst crazy warm anomalies.

D,

We honor those who fight for the planet by continuing the effort.
Neven may take a break but we continue his inspiring work.

Philip Cohen

I regret that this thread has been largely hijacked by vidaloo and other cyclemongers. I just want to join the many people thanking you for this blog and wishing you a good sabbatical. (And an unburnt return.) This is one of only four blogs I follow (with Hot Whopper, Skeptical Science, and Arctic Sea Ice News). I also hope that guest bloggers can jump in and do some of the heavy lifting you've been doing.

VaughnA

Personally, I find the "cyclemongers" informative, interesting and educational. One thing I also "read" from their posts is, "Will the cycle continue next year?"

viddaloo
and other cyclemongers

For the record, Philip, I don't personally reckon we have enough ice anymore to go through another 'cycle', as you call it, presuming you are referring to the 5–year cycle apparent in the recent decade or so of sea ice data?

I also personally don't agree to the notion that everyone should now lose interest in ice 100%. One enthusiast is taking a sabbatical, or trying to, that's about it. From the data itself this is the most interesting time in the history of this blog (and its adjacent Forum), so for it to be not about ice at all at this exact point would be novelle, indeed!

viddaloo
I think the extreme alarmism view, a justifiably scary no sea ice at all scenario, is overrated, it makes good pr against AGW, but it will take too long before it happens.

Wayne,

I can see where you're coming from, but 1) I don't think you have enough data to back up the 'alarmism' claim, and 2) I don't think you have that data arranged in easy–to–play–around–with variable arrays.

If you did, you would see that the monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly drops for annual extent are quickly catching up with the same for annual ice volume, and just taking a linear view of those collapse rates gets us to zero ice shockingly fast. That's in the data itself, and I also believe no–one can guarantee us it won't collapse even faster than linear.

'Alarmism' of course means causing needless worry. I don't think you really mean to say there's no reason to be worried.

AnotherJourneybyTrain

In one week I bet we'll all be calling 2016 'the step change'... any cyclones on the prowl btw?

Hans Gunnstaddar

Based on NSIDC extent graph, 2016 for this date is ~750,000 sq. kilometers less than 2012, but a whopping ~2,000,000 sq. kilometers less than the 1981-2010 avg.

wayne

Viddaloo

"Alarmism' of course means causing needless worry. I don't think you really mean to say there's no reason to be worried."

I think the fake skeptics want to define us, since they don't understand that triatomic gas molecules are very effective in absorbing long wave radiation. Since the science eludes them, they resort to name calling, like any emotionally distraught person. Therefore calling the people with the correct scientific interpretation "alarmists" is a projection of their anger and blaming someone else for their problem. As far as they are concerned, CO2 lags behind temperature change as with the pre anthropogenic captured in ice sheet data suggests, again refracting the correct interpretation upside down. I view people who call others with names either immature or mature, depends on whether they gave up on science or facts and resort to basic human bullying. So yes, we are alarming others, but that is because science makes us do it. Like v=d/t , if you stand in front of truck going towards you at certain speed you may want to calculate the time you have to move away, I rather move away and trust Newton right. Alarmist term is used in a political way as well, since we are alarmed and the proverbial truck is moving at 1 mph, the fake skeptics laugh about the science and use the slowness of it all, we have not been hit yet, as a means to show we are alarmed for nothing. The correct way to deal with them is to say that the truck is moving at 1 mph and it will hurt if you don't move away from its path.

Another

"any cyclones on the prowl btw?"

3, one from the Pacific and 2 from the Atlantic, is like watching UFC, the cold Siberian High is getting licked pretty bad.


NeilT

Wayne, that's like my analogy of the steamroller. The reality is that the "truck" is 1,000 miles wide and the fact that you have not been hit (yet), does not mean you are not going to be hit.

Avoiding a Climate Change disaster means moving faster, using technology and sticking an anchor on the truck.

What the politicians are doing is none of the above. They're still walking sideways and thanking their starts the truck is only moving at 1mph. They have not done the simple basic analysis to find out whether they have enough time to get past the truck.

The scientists keep giving us excellent data. Such as the Thames Barrier. Designed to survive a 1,000 year storm. But at 1970's sea levels. Add just 6 more inches of sea level rise, globally and the Thames barrier overtops on a 100 year storm or even a decadal storm which happens to arrive at the top of the spring tide.

The response of the politicians? The Barrier was designed to survive a 1,000 year storm so there's nothing to worry about....

Stupid is as Stupid does.

BTW, I've said my thanks to Neven for this blog and for the Forum. However there are going to be fewer and fewer articles now Neven is taking a Sabbatical. So our opportunities to discuss these things are constrained to where we can talk now. I would prefer to do this otherwise but the Forum is less visible to the world at large, unlike the blog.

So my apologies for taking this down a rat hole but I think we should discuss these kind of things here. The Forum is much more vertical and people do get irritated when we go "off message".

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