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r w Langford

Thanks Neven, Happy New Year. In relation to predicting climate and weather under arctic influence here is another good view of present knowledge and knowledge gaps. Three new feedback mechanisms discussed each of which appear to be underway already. My fear is that the feedback loops will supersede anthropogenic causes down the road. Jennifer Francis at her best.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-getting-crazy/

Bill Fothergill

@ rwL

Thanks for posting the link to that abbreviated Jennifer Francis article - her work is always a pleasure to read. (Except, of course, for the underlying message, which is bloody terrifying.)

The first paragraph of the interview states that...

"Through November the area of ice-covered ocean in the region reached a record low in seven of 11 months—an unprecedented stretch."

With the December NSIDC figures in, make that 8 out of 12. The "laggards" were June through September, which all came in at a measly second lowest monthly average for sea ice area. (No prizes for figuring out that 2012 was lowest during these four months.)

Using the NSIDC monthlies (and applying equal weighting), the 2016 annual average area of 8.24 million sq kms came in nearly 400k sq kms below 2012. A further 100k back, 2007 was third lowest, fractionally ahead of 2011. The only other years averaging under 9 million sq kms were 2015 and 2010.

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