During the melting season I'm writing (bi-)weekly updates on the current situation with regards to Arctic sea ice (ASI). Central to these updates are the daily Cryosphere Today sea ice area (SIA) and IJIS sea ice extent (SIE) numbers, which I compare to data from the 2005-2014 period (NSIDC has a good explanation of sea ice extent and area in their FAQ). I also look at other things like regional sea ice area, compactness, temperature and weather forecasts, anything of particular interest.
July 30th 2015
My apologies for being a week late with this update. In my defence: things have been remarkably stable in the past three weeks, or all month really, both weather conditions and trend lines on graphs. To make up, here's a guest blog I've written, that was posted by John Abraham on the Guardian website today.
The article describes the melting season so far, starting out with more sea ice volume than previous years, because of the rebound in volume after the 2012 mega-record melting season. This year the ice pack underwent little preconditioning during May and June, perhaps slightly more than 2013 and 2014, but much less than big melt years such as 2007 and 2012.
This order of play led to the early conclusion that 2015 wouldn't break any records, and could very well end up near the previous two rebound years. However, subsequent weather conditions during all of July have broadened the range of possibilities (see the previous ASI update). I'll be going into the details in the July analysis that will be posted in 10 days or so, but I can tell you that July 2015 was exceptionally sunny and warm.
And that brings us to this melting season's main theme: Will the rebound remain intact, or will it be reversed, and perhaps even wiped out?
Let's first have a look at what has happened in these past 3 weeks.
Sea ice area (SIA)