Climate disclaimer

Anthropogenic Global Warming, or AGW, or Climate Change/Chaos/Disruption, or whatever you like to call it, is a serious matter. Because transparency is essential in any debate, I answer some questions I pose myself to give an idea of who I am and why I offer up some of my free time to write this blog.

Who are you?

My name is Neven, that's my real first name. I'd rather stay half-anonymous like this, but anyone who really wants to know my real name can contact me by clicking 'E-mail' in the top menu bar. I'm a born and bred Dutchman with Croatian roots, currently living in Austria with my wife and daughter. I don't have a science background, didn't even finish university, but that just goes to show that anyone can make sense of Arctic sea ice through just a little bit of research and observation.

Why do you write this blog?

Like I wrote in my very first blog post, a word of welcome to the site: "I've been closely following the Arctic sea ice ever since the drastic drop of 2007 when the summer melt beat the 2005 record by 1.9 million square km, a staggering 22%. In 2008 and 2009 Arctic sea ice extent recovered 1 million square km. I have to admit that as an alarmist it's a bit opportunistic to be starting this blog at this period in time, with the 2010 Arctic melt season looking to go low if weather conditions resemble those of 2007, but for years I've been missing a central place where the situation in the Arctic can be discussed."

Do you make any money related to your blog or AGW in general?

Not really. Because I invest some of my free time, I asked the blog community to chip in to pay for the TypePad hosting costs of 149,50 USD per year. In the end I received around 995 USD in donations. In this blog post I explain what the money has and will be used for. In real life I make a living as a free-lance translator.

What are your views on AGW?

I think I could be labeled as an 'alarmist', although 'alarmed' would be more precise. I'm not into spreading fear to get certain results, but at the same time there are sometimes things that are just plain worrying. AGW is one of those things, with the Arctic and its sea ice as one of the most conspicuous aspects of AGW. But there are many more things, despite AGW getting most of the spotlights.

What all these things - from resource wars to financial meltdowns, and from top soil erosion to biodiversity loss - have in common with AGW, is in my view the root cause behind all of them: the belief that economic growth is always good and must therefore forever be pursued. But nothing in a finite system can grow forever and will sooner or later run into limits. I believe we are now bumping into these limits more and more. I wrote an article about this for the Planet 3.0 blog: Infinite Growth and the Crisis Cocktail.

Any solutions?

That's a very difficult question. When I was younger
I thought I knew it all, and though I now know and understand a bit more, I've also started to appreciate the complexity of nature, society and economics. On the 'small' level it's of course about individuals changing their lifestyles out of conviction, and in this respect I think that gardening is one of the most useful things a person can put his mind and energy to, as it has so many benefits on so many levels.

On the 'big' level I believe that something needs to change about the economic thinking that has dominated universities and societies for quite a long time now, ie the neoclassical theory that revolves around an irrational and flawed view on material growth. If you make that the engine of your economy and by extension your society and culture, you will lack resilience when you run into bumps. The engine can only go one way at ever increasing speeds, and if it only stalls a little, things quickly fall apart at the seams. What is needed, is an engine that doesn't have a problem with the neutral gear and can even go in reverse to get out of a cul-de-sac.

Both the 'small' and 'big' things are easier said than done, but in the end it's not about attaining some perfect solutions that do not exist. It's about everyone discussing these things together, however confrontational they are, and then trying to do the right thing together. Sticking heads in the sand never really solved anything.

I believe everything starts with respecting limits, which doesn't automatically mean restricting freedom. Freedom is not about being able to do whatever you like, however much consumer culture is trying to make us believe the opposite. Freedom is about having basic needs provided so that one can fully develop as a human being. This freedom is boundless in theory, but in practice stops where the freedom of another starts. This is why we as a global community are bumping into physical limits. This is why the Arctic sea ice is melting.

What shall we do?

Comments

[Kevin McKinney]

Thanks for a clear and sensible statement about the 'whys and wherefores' of this blog!

You spoke for me with this statement:

"I think I could be labeled as an 'alarmist', although 'alarmed' would be more precise." Like you, I think the reasons for alarm are quite substantial--unfortunately.

[Greenunitedstates.blogspot.com]

You hit the nail squarely on the head when it comes to continual economic growth. This is the thinking that is behind the euro crisis, the hysteria and resistance to changing from a fossil fuel energy infrastructure to renewables, efficiency and conservation, and the impossible hoarding of wealth among the richest.

And it is all based upon fear of change. And, absurdly, fear of changing BACK to a life in harmony with the planet, rather than in perpetual war with it.

[marsto]

Did I misunderstand, or did you claim that the Arctic sea ice is melting because some people don't have the means to "fully develop as a human being"? I admire your data compilation, but I think you've made a 'great leap forward' if you'll pardon the pun.

[Neven]

You misunderstood. :-)

I don't pretend to know it all. This is just a summary of my theories so that people know where I'm coming from and can then decide for themselves if they agree or not with what I'm saying about the Arctic sea ice and other things. The more you know about a source, the better you can judge its trustworthiness.

[Neven]

But to answer your question: I suspect that the Arctic sea ice is melting because in our culture freedom is equated to doing whatever you like, without limits. But in my view that's not at all what freedom is about. I can now make a leap to the neoclassical economic concept of infinite growth, but it's best if I leave it at this.

Oh, and welcome BTW.

[Llosmith57]

Neven, Thank you for sharing a little about your concerns and hopes for the future. My passion for trying to do something about AGW is my family's future. Like you I garden, albeit, on a small scale. I find it practical and relaxing in our fast paced world. I have been involved in AGW since the late 1980's. Even then the evidence collected and published in Congressional Research Service memos left no doubt about the direction that the Arctic and planet Earth would follow. Since then it has been a long uphill struggle to educate and remove the barriers to change. I am so glad for your blog. Perhaps change will start here. Keep up the good work. You are on the right path. Thank you again.

[Neven]

Thanks, Lloyd. I also garden on a small scale, but hope to crank it up as soon as we've found a place to live.

[Colin Maycock]

My passion for trying to do something about AGW is my family's future.
I think that is why a lot of people have gravitated to Neven's site.

I also "garden" but it is part of my job and at a scale that I can offset my/my families emissions. Just working out how many seeds/seedlings I need to collect to offset my up-and-coming flights (I generally don't fly, but these ones can't be avoided).

[Seke Rob]

Just ordered 2 electric bicycles on Saturday... range maximum, if peddling along, up to 180km, top speed 25 miles/hour, if you support peddle hard enough [much much lighter], and powerful enough to scale our steepest salita [with the bag-rack packed with groceries, up to 25kg]. Estimated cost, 4 cents per charge. Sure it still burns FF from the power stations, but in a wholly more efficient manner [they're running anyhow at night...lowest cost 00:00-07:00AM]. That's what we do in latest active *greener* move. The car did 2,500 km in past 12 months, the rest we do on foot, push bike [much less now] or public transport... 1 Euro for 90 minutes, or 2.80 Euro for unlimited day use. Round trip Rome [450km return] by train, 27 Euro pp. No competition as the toll road is already 35 Euro for a return, apart from fuel and the waste of time on finding a parking space. Public transport use saw a 40% subscription rise in past 12 months, but then, we have a public transport dense network, priced as a basic service for all to afford. Sadly, being greener is still a 'if you can afford', but sure enough all lights in the house are no-longer incandescent and apparatus, in off, not standby when not in use. Many small amounts add up. This is what we could do so far in the personal sphere.

[Artful Dodger]

Hi Rob. Wow, that is phenomenal range for an ebike, even with vigorous pedal assist. Would you mind sharing the brand/model name? Perhaps a link?

Cheers, Lodger
(ebike since May 2000 ;^)

[Seke Rob]

Kalkhoff, KTM, A2B to name a few [latter we had cancelled on us... could not deliver]. Some of these are `must peddle´ or they wont propel.

This is the said range champion, not something we´d do on any normal trip: http://www.kalkhoff-bikes.com/int/en/models/2012/category/e-bike-3/subcategory/e-activity-2/model/agattu-c8-hs-impulse-8-g-nexus-1.html

[Espen]

Be aware :: Forget about the link above, it is only spam!!!!!!

[Neven]

Thanks, Espen. Deleted now.

[Pachacuti1]

Neven,
from one "alarmed" to another, thanks for your continuing efforts to bring these things to the public attention.
On the subject of society's addiction to economic growth, you may be interested to watch (and promote?) a very useful film called "Growthbusters - Hooked on Growth" by Colorado film maker Dave Gardner. http://www.growthbusters.org/ It deals in depth with this subject and is currently gaining traction on the film circuit in the US and elsewhere.
Another source of insights that might interest you and other bloggers is a book that I published recently. "pachacuti" is environment and philosophy in a novel and explores in fiction form the global social and environmental issues we must grapple with and the fundamental human impediments to action - an exploration of sustainable social values. http://pachacuti-thebook.com/ I'd be more than happy to post you a free copy in recognition of the work you are doing. My own website with blog and forum can be found here http://www.pachacuti.com/ Pachacuti.com seeks to use the entertainment media as a vehicle for social change message.
Please keep up your valuable contribution.

[Martin Gisser]

On economic growth Michael Tobis just said it on planet3.org:

The steady state economy would be achievable except for the deep-seated integration of “growth” into how we manage our “finances”.

The problem is compound interest. It seems to be inherent to financial management that the phenomenon of interest arises. But I can't say I understand that. There's an interesting 1200p. German book by Karl-Heinz Brodbeck that claims to have solved the enigma of interest: It arises because "nobody" knows where the additional money is made (e.g. in the darkness of Congo c19/20th, e.g. by taxing the future with negative externalities, ...)