ATTENTION: new polls in the right hand bar, closing August 20th.
I guess the latest SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook hasn't come out yet because participating forecasters want to see the full effect of this storm on the sea ice extent numbers before submitting their final estimate for the September average sea ice extent as calculated by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. But we need some new polls over here, so I'm putting out this post.
As you all know, we're doing two polls, because only betting on the September average is kind of boring, as we'd have to wait until October to see the final result. It's more fun to track the daily numbers, and so there's a poll for Cryosphere Today sea ice area as well.
I chose this dataset because IJIS switched from the AMSR-E to the WindSat sensor, and their SIE numbers are oscillating a bit too much to trust comparisons to other years. There are not any other daily updated, freely accessible data sets out there (NSIDC has one now, but I had already started the polls by then) and as Cryosphere Today is an old and trustworthy player in the whole sea ice cover calculation business, I've decided to go for a daily minimum sea ice area poll.
Here are the results from last month's poll:
The NSIDC minimum monthly/September sea ice extent received 238 votes. The average* of all votes was 4.24 million square km.
These are the NSIDC September monthly average SIE minimums (data here) in the 2005-2011 period:
- 2005: 5.57 million square km
- 2006: 5.92 million square km
- 2007: 4.30 million square km
- 2008: 4.73 million square km
- 2009: 5.39 million square km
- 2010: 4.93 million square km
- 2011: 4.61 million square km
The average* for the Cryosphere Today minimum daily sea ice area (279 votes) was 2.93 million square km.
These are the Cryosphere Today daily SIA minimums (data here) in the 2005-2011 period:
- 2005: 4.09 million square km
- 2006: 4.03 million square km
- 2007: 2.92 million square km
- 2008: 3.00 million square km
- 2009: 3.42 million square km
- 2010: 3.07 million square km
- 2011: 2.90 million square km
There are new polls in the right hand bar, that will close on August 20th. Because of recent developments I've changed the options. If you want, you can re-vote later on by going to the polls directly (here for NSIDC minimum monthly SIE, and here for CT minimum daily SIA). For an explanation of the differences between the polls, go to this blog post.
* This is my complex method for processing the poll results and calculating the average:
I've calculated the number by multiplying the percentage number with the average of an option. For instance 'between 4.0 and 4.2 million' = 4.1, and for 'less than 2.8 million km2' I've used 2.7 million km2. I've added up all multiplications and divided the result by 100.