The third and last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks).
Scroll down to the bottom to see the results from this year's Arctic Sea Ice Forum polls that were held at the same time as the periods preceding the SIO monthly submission deadlines.
Here's the summary for the August report:
The median August Outlook for September 2015 Arctic sea ice extent is 4.8 million square kilometers (km2), 200,000 km2 lower than the June and July medians. The quartile range is 4.2 to 5.2 million km2 (see Figure 1 in the Overview section, below). Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical, dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information. The overall range (excluding an extreme outlier) is 2.7 to 5.6 million km2. The low end of the range dropped substantially from July (3.3 million km2), due to one new contribution, while the high end changed only slightly from July (5.7 million km2).
The median's decrease from the June and July values reflects rather rapid ice loss during July. The drop is mostly due to lower statistical and mixed statistical/heuristic contributions (Figure 2), because these methods are generally at least partially based on extrapolation from current/previous conditions whereas modeling contributions are generally not.
Read the entire report here.
And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):