The third and last Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2016 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks).
Here's the summary for the August report:
This month the median pan-Arctic extent Outlook for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.4 million square kilometers (km2) with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.7 million km2, which is slightly higher than July's value (4.3 million km2) (See Figure 1 in the full report, below). If the median Outlook should agree with the observed estimate come September, this year would be the third lowest September in the satellite record. The spread in the Outlook contributions narrowed slightly from July to August, with an overall range this month of 3.7 to 5.2 million km2.
The full range of Outlooks submitted this month lies within the range of the ten lowest years of sea ice extent in the observational record. As in July, no Outlook is predicting a new record this year, despite the warm winter, record low extents for every month in 2016 except March and July, and evidence of thin ice in spring. Current sea ice extent and meteorological conditions suggest a record low is unlikely, as surface temperature over the central Arctic has been near normal in the last two months and forecasts of atmospheric temperatures for the next few weeks indicate average surface temperatures. However, a major storm in the central Arctic during mid- to late August will support continued breakup of the central ice pack. The higher end of the predictions is also unlikely given that the current extent as of 16 August is 5.3 million km2.
And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):
The September minimums for the last 11 years (in million km2, found here):