2012 Maximum Area PoolEDIT Neven: There's a poll in the right hand bar running until February 8th for predicting the Cryosphere Today maximum sea ice area number. See details below. Don't be afraid to share your prediction in the comments. :-)
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Post by guest author crandles:
I keep coming back to the Cryosphere Today global sea ice area anomaly graph, as it keeps on delivering records and/or trivial tidbits.
We had to wait a relatively long time for the anomaly trend to go above zero, but Arctic SIA as well as Antarctic SIA are currently both higher than for instance last year, so here it is:
This was the longest period on record of a negative global SIA anomaly. According to my calculations based on the CT SIA data the previous longest period lasted 444 days and ended just before the end of 2007. Another period of 333 days took place from mid-2009 to mid-2010, not much later followed by this new record period of 502 days. As the period ended at the beginning of this year we also just witnessed the first full calendar year on record without a positive anomaly.
In the coming few weeks the global sea ice area minimum will be hit. I don't expect a new record.
Who says records can only be broken during the melting season? Just a week ago the 12 month rolling average for monthly NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent was at its lowest point on record, and this week it looks very much like global sea ice area (Arctic and Antarctic combined, as calculated by the good people of Cryosphere Today) has reached its lowest maximum peak on record:
It's a bit difficult to make out on this graph (source) if this year's peak really is the lowest on record. But as always Larry Hamilton comes to our rescue with one of his clear communication bar graphs:
Eagle eyes can also see that the 2011 global SIA max is below that of 2009 on Crysophere Today's own global sea ice area graph.
There's still a chance global SIA might shoot up, but it has declined fast due to the Arctic hurricane compressing the ice in the Chukchi Sea (more on that later), and with Antarctic sea ice area dropping fast I don't think it's going to get a chance to aim higher still. So a new record it is.
In 2-3 months the global sea ice area minimum will be hit.
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Edit: in the comment section Larry Hamilton posts a link to another graph, showing the trends in the global sea ice area maximum, minimum and mean (1979-now):
The following text was sent to me by Al Rodger:
Four years ago, the year 2007 saw the record-breaking summer/autumn melt season in the Arctic. As the Extent of sea ice during the preceding winter maximum was also low, 2007 easily set the record for 12 month rolling average for Arctic Sea Ice Extent. Four years later, that annual record has now been broken.
Using the figures from NSIDC, the 12 month rolling average for Arctic Sea Ice Extent dropped from last month's 10.67 million sq km to 10.62 this month, setting the new record. Previously the record had been set by the-year-to-October 2007 with an Extent of 10.66, the record standing for 48 months.
The record for Arctic Sea Ice Area has also been broken. The-year-to-October 2007 was again the previous record, standing at 8.39 million sq km. Annual average Sea Ice Area dropped to 8.34 for the-year-to-October 2011.
Using different satellite data & analysis, the JAXA Sea Ice Extent record was set at 9.946 million sq km in the-year-to-December 2007. By 3 October 2011, when the AMSR-E satellite data ceased, JAXA's rolling 365 day average stood at 10.005. At the rate that the average had been decreasing, JAXA's monthly averages would have broken the record this year-to-November, or after 47 months.
By comparison, Sea Ice Volumes have been decreasing far more quickly. The '2007' record value modelled by PIOMAS calculated to 15,075 cu km, set in the-year-to-January 2008. It was broken in just 29 months. The-year-to-September 2011 average has been calculated at 13,140 cu km.
The record breaking 2007 season is the largest 'blip' in the satellite record of Arctic Sea Ice Extent but there are other such 'blips'. The second largest 'blip' occurred in 1995/6 when the 1995 summer/autumn minimum extent stood as a record for seven years and the following 1996 winter/spring maximum extent was also a record low for eight years. The resulting 12 month rolling NSIDC Extent record was set at 11.72 million sq km in the-year-to-April 1996. It was bested for one month (the-year-to-September 2002) by a mere 7,500 sq km, such a small margin it probably counts as a draw rather than a new record.
It took to January 2004 before 1996's 12 month rolling average Extent record was convincingly broken, the 1996 record thus standing for 93 months. That records from the larger 2007 'blip' tumbled in nearly half the time is indicative of the accelerating decline in Arctic Sea Ice.
It doesn't look like the area maximum will be under 13 million km^2 based on past 10 years all increasing by at least 0.6m km^2 and sometimes over 1m km^2 from this time of year. We are currently at 12.414m km^2.
Also, you could argue that the recent trend has been unusually in that amount is less now than 15 days so perhaps a spike upwards is imminent.
On the other hand, area is high outside Bering strait and by Baffin Bay so maybe these won't increase area much further. Where the area is low, Barents and Kara seas, the water is warm and set to stay that way at least this week with strong winds blowing from Atlantic. Then maybe the sun is getting high enough for Southern Barents to receive more solar energy than usual because of low ice and therefore albedo.
This might suggest the increase in area could continue to be slow a little longer.
Or you might completely disagree with above assessment.
So how about a pool of guesses on the area maximumper Cryosphere today? Not much time left so I suggest guesses should be submitted before end of January.
Neven commented:
On the other hand: that huge high over Northern Siberia means clear skies and thus a lot of radiation escaping to space.
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EDIT Neven:
To add to the fun I have opened a poll and added it to the right hand bar. You can vote on what you think the SIA maximum will be until February 8th.
Here are the Cryosphere Today SIA maximums in the period 2005-2011 with the date of maximum (from this daily updated data file):