The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2016 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks).

Here's the summary for the June report:

The distribution of Outlooks for statistical and dynamical models have a median extent that is 0.15 million square kilometers different from each other, with a slightly larger spread for the statistical models than the dynamical models. The same sort of spread difference was seen in 2015. Separating out fully-coupled dynamical models from ice-ocean models shows that fully coupled models give a slightly lower forecast with a median of 4.57 versus 4.62, yet have a larger spread (Figure 2). The median forecast of heuristic forecasts is 4.0 million square kilometers and the spread is small. However, actual contributions to the two polls show a diverse range from 2.9 to 5.3 million square kilometers.

The overall width of the distribution of Outlooks has narrowed compared to last year: the interquartile spread across all types of contributions is 0.53 million square kilometers, which is a decrease of 0.27 million square kilometers since last year. The overall range is also reduced to 3.4 to 5.23 million square kilometers.

And here's the figure showing all the projections (click for a larger version):

## Recent Comments