Arctic Sea Ice

Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Causes & Effects

Introduction & Disclosure

My name is Randall Gates Simpson. There is no PhD after my name and I am not a PhD climate scientist. I don't consider myself a traditional "expert" on the subject of SSW's because of my lack of official credentials. I do however think I probably know quite a bit more on the subject than the average person might. I work as a television producer by day, and as a hobby, study climate
and weather on my nights and weekends and have for over 30 years.

In addition to the subject of anthropogenic climate change, I first became interested in SSW's a few years back when it became increasingly apparent to me the extreme effects that SSW's can have on Northern Hemisphere winter weather. It wasn't just their extreme effects that interested me, but rather, the fact that their specific causes were still a bit of a mystery-- and I've always loved a good mystery.  Isn't that what is (or should be) at the heart and soul of any good scientist?

In this post I reveal what I think is an original synthesis that gives the full picture of some of the main causes and effects of Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warming events based on my readings of many other papers along with hours of my own original research. For research material I relied heavily on the use of the amazing amount of satellite derived reanalysis data as well as ground based observations. I am heavily indebted to organizations such as NASA, NCAR and NOAA for the data they have made available at my fingertips through the web.

My research took me "virtually" to the other side of the world from where I live in Colorado, to discover some of the causes of SSW events. My research has also relied on men and women scientists who have physically travelled to extremely remote and desolate locations to gather data that I have relied on to create this synthesis. I hope perhaps one day to travel myself to these remote places to see first hand what I feel are the true birthplaces of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events.

Met Office looks into Arctic link to weird weather

Commenter Steve Bloom always links to interesting stuff (if the new spam filter system lets him). This time it's about an article on the ITV website (and in the sensationalist Daily Mail) that links Arctic warming and sea ice loss to the late outburst of weird winter weather in the UK and the rest of Europe. This comes after a Chinese scientist linking extreme cold and snow to Arctic sea ice loss, and fake skeptics casually remarking that all the extra snow on the Northern Hemisphere (resulting in hundreds of victims) was due to "a record low amount of Arctic sea ice". And then there was Sandy's weird 90° curve to the left.

All in all it has been an decent harvest of winter weirdness events, and if the coming melting season is anything like the last one, it will be interesting to see if it's followed by more of the same extremeness. Because enquiring minds want to know. Society wants to know, or should want to know, if there's a link with Arctic sea ice loss.

Met Office investigating Arctic link
to record low temperatures in UK

A cyclist braves the snow near Reeth in the Yorkshire Dales in March 2013 Photo: John Giles/PA Wire

After some of the coldest temperatures in almost 100 years, the Met Office says it is "urgent" that we address the causes of our changing weather and the possibility that recent record melts in the Arctic are to blame.

The forecaster's top scientist, Dr Julia Slingo, has told ITV News that she will convene a meeting of top experts from around the world to look into this.

New figures out today show the temperature dropped to -11.2C in Aberdeenshire on April 2 - the lowest April temperature recorded nationally for almost a century. It follows the coldest March since 1962.

Some scientists believe that rapid warming in the Arctic, which saw sea ice shrink to its lowest ever level last September, could be influencing our weather in the UK.

ITV News' Science Editor Lawrence McGinty reports:

Go read the rest of the article and watch some interesting videos here. Also watch the short interview with Jennifer Francis here.

I think it bears repeating that I'm not saying that all of these weird weather events - you know, the really weird, extreme stuff, not every freezing temperature or random snowfall - are 100% certain to be caused by Arctic sea ice loss. But this is something we want to know, right? Or shouldn't this be looked into? If you want to deny the possibility that the extreme loss of Arctic sea ice could have a negative influence on Northern Hemisphere weather patterns, you will have to answer the question: How could it not? Good luck with that.

Again, not saying it's 100% certain, but definitely not ruling it out either.
We want to know.

Looking for winter weirdness 6

I wasn't expecting another instalment in this year's series of blog posts on Winter Weirdness, extreme weather events that could be linked to the decline in Arctic sea ice. It's not even winter anymore officially. But as spring has been revoked in large parts of Europe, and the atmospheric blocking that is causing it is being linked to Arctic sea ice as a potential cause, I figure it's a fitting end for the series.

One of the first articles alluding to the link, appeared on the Guardian's website on Monday: Scientists link frozen spring to dramatic Arctic sea ice loss. Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University, went further, writing a blog post showing the similarities between the current event and modeled projections in recent research that investigated the influence of Arctic sea ice loss on atmospheric patterns. Lepus Universalis Eli Rabett was so kind as to translate Rahmstorf's blog post to English:

Melting Ice and Cold Weather

The media are debating if the decrease in  Arctic ice  is related to this winter's cold weather in Germany. This post discusses the most recent current research about this including the most important figures from relevant studies.

First, what does the unusual temperature distribution observed this March actually look like? Here is a map showing the data (up to and including March 25, NCEP / NCAR data plotted with KNMI Climate Explorer):

Freezing cold in Siberia, reaching across northwestern Europe, unusually mild temperatures over the Labrador Sea and parts of Greenland and a cold band diagonally across North America, from Alaska to Florida. Averaged over the northern hemisphere the anomaly disappears - the average is close to the long-term average. Of course, the distribution of hot and cold is related to atmospheric circulation, and thus the air pressure distribution. The air pressure anomaly looks like this:

There was unusually high air pressure between Scandinavia and Greenland. Since circulation around a high is clockwise [anticyclone], this explains the influx of arctic cold air in Europe and the warm Labrador Sea. 

Arctic sea ice

Let us now discuss the Arctic sea ice.  The summer minimum in September set a new record low, but also at the recent winter maximum there was unusually little ice (ranking 6th lowest - the ten years with the lowest ice extent were all in the last decade). The ice cover in the Barents sea was particularly low this winter.  All in all until March the deficit was  about the size of Germany compared  to the long-term average.

Is there a connection with the winter weather?  Does the shrinking ice cover influence the atmospheric circulation, because the open ocean strongly heats the Arctic atmosphere from below?  (The water is much warmer than the overlying cold polar air.) Did the resulting evaporation of sea water moisten the air and thus lead to more snow? These questions have been investigated by several studies in recent years.

Read the rest over at Eli's, or in German at KlimaLounge.

---

Update: Commenter R. Gates has a firm meteorological grasp of current events, which not only could be influenced by the state of the sea ice, but also have to do with the early breaking down of the Polar Vortex I alluded to in my latest blog post on the cracking event (Arctic freezing season ends with a loud crack). Here's his explanation in a comment below:

Looking for winter weirdness 5

From WattsUpWithThat (via Pierre Gosselin and Marc Morano):

Increased evaporation combined with more heat loss in the Arctic due to a record low amount of Arctic sea ice is the likely cause.

The likely cause of this: This graph is made and updated by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab. They also have maps showing the Northern Hemisphere December and daily (in this case January 5th 2013) departure from normal:

Three of the five highest positive anomalies for December have all occurred in the last four years. It does indeed make sense that all of that open water in the Arctic Ocean has something to do with it. If that keeps up for a couple of more years, we could start calling it climate change, right? Not in a couple of decades, but now, as we speak.

It's exhilarating to see fake skeptics acknowledge this so casually. Just recently, the only fake skeptic scientist with any credentials they could find for the first Climate Dialogue on Arctic sea ice, Dr. Judith Curry, even acknowledged that at least 50% of the disappearance of Arctic sea ice was due to human activity.

And so you could even plausibly posit that all the deaths and damage due to the recent extreme cold in Russia and China are partially caused by AGW. I'm not saying it is definitely so, but it isn't that far-fetched either. And it's most probably not the last we've seen of it. If September sea ice cover stays at the level of the last 5-6 years or even diminishes further, we could be seeing more snowfall anomalies during winter. In other words, more deaths and damage.

Fake skeptics implicitly (are starting to) agree with this, but still they'll do anything to keep their coveted laissez- faire business-as-usual scenario going for as long as possible. Never mind the deaths and damage along the way, these sacrifices are needed for tomorrow's heaven.
I don't know, but it reminds me of war propaganda in the vein of 'Die, young man, for the future of your country'. Too bad they're not so honest as to say it outright.
I'd have more respect for them.

At the end of the post the WUWT science team even announces:

Looking for winter weirdness 4

Here's a small one, related to the previous winter weirdness post. Apparently China is also experiencing a colder winter than usual. Allow me to just copypaste the entire article from China Daily:

China's cold winter linked to Arctic sea ice loss

The unusually cold winter this year in China may be a result of the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer, Chen Yu, senior engineer of the National Climate Center, told China Daily on Friday.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the United States, Arctic sea ice shrank to a record low on Sept 16, to an average total area of 3.61 million square kilometers.

"Observation and data analysis showed that Arctic sea ice loss may cause cold and snowy winters in parts of Asia," Chen said.

She explained that when sea ice melts in the Arctic, the water temperature increases. When that happens, the air becomes moister and is more likely to form cold fronts.

According to the China Meteorological Administration, in December most of China suffered colder weather than usual. On Dec 24, frequent cold fronts led to temperatures in 21 monitoring stations hitting record lows.

And the cold weather is going to return. A new round of cold fronts will hit most parts of the country on New Year's Eve, bringing mild to medium snowfalls to Northeast China.

Kang Zhiming, weather forecaster of the National Meteorological Center, said weather models showed the temperature will not rise until late January.

"The weather authorities will keep a close eye on any changes in the weather, especially before Spring Festival, in order to give timely information to transport and related departments, particularly in the event of extreme weather," Kang said.

There are more details with regards to how cold the cold is in this China Daily article from a couple of days ago:

Looking for winter weirdness 3

It's been a while since we had a first couple of signs of winter weirdness, back in October, when superstorm Sandy took a 90 degree left turn due to a ridge of blocking highs along southern Greenland, and some cold air spilled from the central Arctic over Europe, bringing very early snow to the old continent.

This time the weirdness seems to have hit Russia. Now before people start accusing me of alarmism or hype: I'm only singling out extreme weather patterns, like WACC-y weather, anomalous snowfall on the Northern Hemisphere land masses, outbreaks of cold air, atmospheric blocking patterns...

So is the weather in Russia of the past couple of days extreme?
Here's what RT has to say about it:

Russia is enduring its harshest winter in over 70 years, with temperatures plunging as low as -50 degrees Celsius. Dozens of people have already died, and almost 150 have been hospitalized.

The country has not witnessed such a long cold spell since 1938, meteorologists said, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia.

That article was released 4 days ago. Here's one from AFP from yesterday:

 A deadly cold snap has claimed 88 lives across Russia, officials said Sunday, as Moscow authorities told schoolchildren they could stay home to avoid the frigid temperatures.

Temperatures across the capital region were expected to drop to almost minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 Fahrenheit) in the night.

Aside from the 88 people who have perished, another 538 people needed hospital treatment, Russian news agency Ria Novosti said, citing a medical source.

The agency said seven people, including a child, had died in the past 24 hours.

An official with Moscow's education department told the Interfax news agency that younger children could stay home on Monday.

Russia has been in the grips of an intense and unseasonable chill for the past 10 days or so. Temperatures have fallen to below minus 50 Celsius in eastern Siberia, and minus 20 in Moscow.

The temperatures are 12 degrees lower than seasonal norms, with such chills not normally arriving until January or February.

The vicious cold snap has also claimed lives across eastern Europe.

Authorities in Ukraine, which has been battling heavy snowfall for weeks, said Friday that 83 people had died of cold, with 57 of the victims found on the street.

Here's another article on Agrimoney.com reporting on consequences for winter grains production. The combination of extreme cold and no (insulating) snow is not good for crops.

I used the NOAA ESRL daily mean composites page to check sea level pressure patterns for the last 10 days and this is what showed up:

Looking for winter weirdness 2

While the US East coast is preparing for an intensifying Sandy (Jeff Masters has all the info you could possibly want), Europe is being struck by a very early cold snap. According to German meteorologist Christoph Hartmann such early snows in Germany occur every 30 to 40 years (link).*

Bulgarian news ageny Novinite has some short info about the rest of Europe:

The early first snow for the new winter has already fallen in Central Europe, tragically claiming three lives in Poland.

The three victims of deadly frostbite are men aged 50-60, one of them being a homeless person.

The heavy snowfall in southern Poland has obstructed communications, and some 70,000 people have remained without power.

The situation in neighboring Czech Republic is similar, with trains delayed, roads blocked by wet snow, and trees felled.

Northern Italy and Switzerland have also been affected by the phenomenon, caused by the so-called Cassandra cyclone.

Snow has also fallen in the northern areas of southerly Croatia on the Balkan Peninsula, with the snow cover expected to reach some 20 cm by Sunday evening.

Looking at the daily snow cover maps provided by the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab (hat-tip to Hans Verbeek from the Cassandraclub blog) we see the situation up till yesterday:

The two images above show snow cover, the two images below show the anomaly. The snow in Central Europe is caused by a combination of frigid air from the Arctic and Cassandra, the cyclone in the Mediterranean pushing mild and moist air northwards. This seems to be confirmed by the National Weather Service of Switzerland, as explained in this swissinfo.ch article:

Looking for winter weirdness

The Arctic is refreezing fast. Trend lines that were way below all other years for weeks on end have returned to the pack, as can be seen on the Daily graphs page of the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs website. Of course, there's still much more open water now than during the long-term average, and so we start looking for signs of weird or WACC-y weather, anomalous snowfall on the Northern Hemisphere land masses, outbreaks of cold air, atmospheric blocking patterns...

Here's something I don't remember seeing often in the past 3 years:

That's the latest surface pressure map from the Danish Meteorological Institute. It looks pretty impressive. The red and yellow are high pressure areas, meaning clear skies, low temperatures and fast freezing. These huge high pressure areas have caused the Arctic Oscillation index to go way down into negative territory: