Dire Straits

There are blogs where people go to get information on certain subjects. When they have a particular question they ask it in the comment section and usually the blogger - who has an above average knowledge of the subject most of the time - will answer the question. This blog is not such a blog. Actually, it's the exact opposite. I, the blogger, do not know a lot about the Arctic and so I'm hoping people will post comments to clear things up for me. Because I have questions, a lot of questions.

Take for instance the MODIS satellite images Gareth from the Hot Topic blog mentioned in the comment thread of my previous blog post. The Arctic mosaic (a composite of several pictures) offers a stunning view of what is actually going on in the Arctic. But how do you interpret what you see? It's been only this year that I have started to check these images, and particularly the one displaying the Nares Strait.

The extra interest on my part is mainly due to this excellent piece by Patrick Lockerby called The Broken Bridges of Nares (sounds a bit like the title of an exciting fantasy book, doesn't it). Lockerby uses pictures from MODIS to show how and when the Nares Strait ice broke up in previous years and April 2010.

Ice bridge locations, adapted from image by P. Lockerby, source: ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/

As Lockerby writes:

After the long Arctic Winter, the Nares Polynya should have formed an ice bridge. It hasn't. The Lincoln Sea should have healed its fractures. It hasn't. (...) In 2007 the open Nares Strait discharged about 10% of the total ice loss. (...) There is a potential for ice loss this year far greater than the all-time losses of 2007. The Nares Strait and Lincoln Sea areas should be surveyed as a matter of urgency.

So that's what I've been doing ever since, survey the Nares Strait and Lincoln Sea (though that probably isn't what Lockerby had in mind). And when you click on the MODIS Arctic mosaic where the Nares Strait and Lincoln Sea are, you get a closer view of that region:

The dark water on the left is Nares Strait and you can see the chunks of ice floating into it. The open water on the right below is where Fram Strait is and where most of the ice flushes out towards warmer ocean water in the south. Now I know from other pictures from NASA etc. that at the end of the melt season all of the remaining ice is attached to Greenland.

So my question is: Is it at all possible that these two dark blue patches of open water get connected to each other? In other words, is it possible that Greenland could be circumnavigated and has this ever happened before? Is it OK for me to dub this lead between the two straits Knopfler Strait in advance? This in honour of the man who put a song in my head that wouldn't go out for three weeks:

Tip: to see the entire MODIS Arctic mosaic press the 'prev' button on the top of the page. Or go to this daily satellite map that functions a bit like Google Maps (except that you can't zoom in as far as with MODIS).

Tip 2: Read Patrick Lockerby's series on the Arctic Sea Ice, being Arctic Ice 2010 (3 parts) and Arctic Tipping Points (6 parts).

UPDATE: Over on his blog Patrick Lockerby informs me that he already has answered my questions in his first instalment of Arctic Tipping Points, which of course I'd forgotten about. I'll reproduce it here:

The red triangle on the map, the 'Arctic Triangle', is a zone within which ice has historically persisted on average as thick multi-year ice with substantial compression ridges and over-ridden chunks.  Where the triangle is shorebound at Queen Elizabeth Islands, Ellesmere Island and Greenland it shows frequent seasonal inshore leads.  Historically, these leads have been scattered, fairly unpredictable and of short duration.  As far as I can discover through my researches there has been no time in recorded history when it was ever possible to circumnavigate Greenland, even in an icebreaker.

I predict that this year, 2010, circumnavigation of Greenland will be possible for the first time.  I will show in further parts of this series the satellite and other observations which lead me to that conclusion.

Comments

[Patrick Lockerby]

Before commenting on this article I must, as a matter of ethics, declare my bias.

My name is Patrick Lockerby. ;-)

Excellent article!
Great video!

[Lord Soth]

The combination of effects between the Beaufort Gyro and the Trans polar drift, generally pushes the multiyear ice againt the top of Canadian Arctic Islands and Greenland.

If (most likely) the North east passage melts out, and we get winds blowing towards russia for a subtained period (unlikely), it is possible for a navigational lead to develop at the top of greenland, but probably not for long. This would also create a free floating ice pack, not attached to land. Interesting.

[Neven]

Thanks, Lord Soth. That's an interesting answer to the question I just asked over at Patrick Lockerby's blog:

Wrt circumnavigation: will it only be possible to circumnavigate Greenland in something large when the Arctic is completely ice-free? In other words, will the last ice be clinging to Greenland and Ellesmere Island? Or should it be possible as well when for instance say 2 million square km of sea ice extent is left and clings somewhere else?

I overlooked a prediction by Patrick in his first instalment of the Arctic Tipping Points series which I'll reproduce in an update of this post.

[fredt34]

The big hole opening in East Greenland re-activated my interest for this question: will we see Greenland being circumnavigable this year? If not, when?