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Lord Soth

They actually smooth out the 'erroneous blip' between May 20 to June 11, so we no longer see the spike around the first few days of June. I would have prefered that they just left things as they were, rather than smooth things to look pretty.

If they are using a standard smoothing algorithm, this is causing the actual ice lost to be under reported in late may, and overreported in early June, with the greatest smoothing occuring June 1, tapering to none before May 20 and after June 11.

Since we are at the tail edge of the smoothing, I suspect that the value between what it would be if they didnt smooth the data, compared to the smooth data would be within 5000 Km by now. Regardless, we are see a nice breakaway, and it will get harder everyday, for the 2007 numbers to converge.


Exactly, Lord Soth. I didn't formulate that as well as you just did.

And I didn't see that +30K revision coming (3rd time that's happened to me this year :-) ), so yesterday wasn't the highest melt for that date after all, 2008 was 781 square kilometres lower. What a difference a revision makes!


2010 is now running 9 days ahead of 2007. I'd expect that to tighten a bit as we reach the point where 2007 went in to freefall, but for the moment it certainly is "breaking away".

Kevin McKinney

As implicit in the previous comments, sea ice extent is tricky--just when you think you know what's coming, in situ conditions change and the curve heads off in a new direction, leaving you with only the bread crumbs required for a facial deep-fry. (Egg, bread crumbs. . . never mind, silly quip.)

That said, though, it sure doesn't look like anything close to "recovery" is in the cards anytime soon. (Except of course to "Steve Goddard," who seemed to put a lot of weight on "cold Arctic weather for the last couple of weeks"--IIRC.) SSTs look mostly pretty elevated around the ice margins, there are widespread polynyas throughout the ice (see Cryosphere Today images), and tropospheric temps continuing to be highly elevated despite the subsidence of El Nino conditions (though I'd like to see what the spatial distributions look like.)

Lastly, it's at least interesting that the extent is diverging as widely as it seems to be doing: this is the point of the year which exhibits the lowest variability in total extent, historically speaking. It's tempting to see it as yet another factor suggesting that there's a novel "sea ice regime" emerging.

Lord Soth

If you are looking for a prediction for ice movement, I use a service from the Russia that gives the predicted mean sea ice drift for a week.


When I see large vectors heading south, or towards warmer waters, its bad news for the ice.


That's an interesting map, LS. It reminds me a bit of that animation JeffID made at The Air Vent last year. But that's just because of the arrow, I don't know if these things have any relation. :-)

The Russian site looks interesting. I'll mention it when I do a blog post on all the interesting sites to watch out for when monitoring the Arctic.

Do you also check this site from the International Arctic Buoy Programme?

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