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Kevin McKinney

As I posted to CBC.ca earlier, when I saw today's map from CT, I greeted it literally with profanity. Out loud.

You're right, Neven, this stuff can come and go, so caution is in order. But it becomes increasingly hard this year. This year really feels different.

And while I agree with you about the importance of a "wake-up call," I can't feel satisfied by what I see--the real world consequences will not, I fear, be quite so rosy as the political ones.

Still, it's just weather--just weather--just weather. . .

Gneiss

Perhaps you've remarked on this elsewhere, but I just noticed that the Polar Science Center has finally updated their ice volume (PIOMAS) estimate. It's falling like a rock.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php

Neven

Yep, just weather, Kevin. :-)

Gneiss, I know the graph, but have they updated? On the graph it says 'last day: 2010-05-30'.

David Gould

Neven,

They have updated to the 18 June. It looks like about 10.7 below the average, a drop of around 1 since the last update.

Lord Soth

As the "We Use Wishful Thinking" group would say, its only 5 standard deviations below the mean; its just natural variation.

Neven

Thanks, David, I see it now too. That trend line is about to leave the graph any time now. ;-)

Patrick Lockerby

Meanwhile over at Cryosphere Today .. the hyperlink in the article is broken.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

It's so easy to post a broken link. I do it a lot. That's when the edit button comes in handy. I'd be lost without it. ;-)

Kevin McKinney

@David, Neven--yes: (historical) graphical consistency at PIOMAS is about to become another victim of climate change, it would seem.

If only that were the worst impact!

Neven

Thanks, Patrick! I've fixed that link. The edit button is my friend too.

IJIS has revised today's reported melt upwards with 18K, but like I said still the biggest reported melt for that date in the last 5 years.

fredt34

I guess they're going to add a "-15" mark to PIOMAS ladder soon. I badly remember when NSIDC extended the Arctic Extent scale in 2007 to allow the graph to plunge so looooooow...

Lord Soth

Another 94K melt again last night. Will probably be high 70's low 80's after todays adjustment.

We are now getting a consistent increased melt rate.

The NSIDC uses a five day average so they are good for smoothing out day to day variations. But if you look at the NSIDC site, you will notice that the slope has been virtually constant (hold a piece of paper up to the slope line) from the start of May to Mid June. For the past 10 days it had taken on a steeper slope.

I now feel that we are mirroring the conditions of 2007, other than the fact that we have a head start.

One thing that happen in 2007, was in August was that the remaining ice was compacted, rather than driven out of the arctic. This slowed down the melt in August of 2007.

In 2008, the ice melt lagged, but in August the melt picked up steam, as the arctic ice was pushed south, and came close to beating 2007.

I expect the 2010 ice melt to remain ahead of 2007 till the start of August. The month of August will determine if a new melt record is maintain.

Once thing going for 2010, is that there is a lot less ice to melt volume wise, than in 2007.

And perhaps, if the remainin ice is thin enought, and we get a sustained strong wind during the storms of fall, the ice edge could be pushed over the pole, making the north pole ice free.

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