Animation 9: sea ice concentration

It's oh so cloudy up there in the Arctic due to all those nasty cyclones that it's virtually impossible to make intriguing animations of Passages, glaciers or ice floes the size of European islands. I decided therefore to have another look at sea ice concentration maps and how they have been evolving over the past couple of weeks.

Allow me to kick off with the sea ice concentration map of the University of Bremen because I was quite surprised by what I saw today. A huge part of the ice pack has suddenly turned to yellow, green and even some blue in the area of the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. Mind you, I expressed my doubt following the last animation I made of the University of Bremen sea ice concentration map, noting that it looked like a blinking flash light. Not entirely fair perhaps as the ice really looks shaky for a while now and weather conditions are making the ice floes diverge and spread out.

Here's the animation where I compare yesterday's date, July 29th, to the same date in previous years. At the end I've added the map of the day before yesterday, just so you can see the change in one day:

Without the multi-coloured area 2010 looks to be ahead of most years, except ice queen 2007.

I've also made an animation of the PIPS sea ice concentration maps from July 15-28. PIPS gets its sea ice concentration data from the SSM/I satellite sensor and I must say the shape agrees pretty well with Uni Bremen:

   

Artful Dodger has repeatedly pointed to the ftp-site of the University of Hamburg that also holds sea ice concentration maps, similar to those of Uni Bremen. This animation comprises July 19-29. Getting awfully dark out there:

What the heck, to top it off I've also made an animation of the OSI SAF sea ice concentration maps from July 19-28. The shape is slightly different, but look at that lilac go:

 

Cryosphere Today has its own 30-day animation, which is great, because it saves me a lot of time.

Comments

[Artful Dodger]

Hi Neven. The "big grey band" on the Uni-Bremen concentration map represents data for a satellite pass that has not been received yet. These images are built up in real time, so if you visit the site throughout the day you'll see more and more swaths added to the current map.

Aqua's orbital is period 98.4 min, so the new map should be updated within say, an 2 hrs, +/- 30 min.

[Neven]

Thanks, AD. I'll update it first thing in the morning.

[Andrew Xnn]

Neven;

Thanks for doing all this work.
2007 and 2010 both appear unique in their own ways.
2007 looked to be more compact, but also more dense.
2010 appears to have much more colored areas of thinner coverage.

I've been researching the Arctic Dipole Anomaly and it's role.
As some realize, the Dipole was present back in June.
However, over the last few years it's actually been a fall phenomium.
That being the case, if it sets up again, we may be in for another round of rapid changes considering how much more mobile the pack appears to be this year compared to the past.

Here's one of the better links I've found about the dipole:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1398

and another link/paper (not as good):

http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2006/2006GL028112.shtml

[siili]

Todays preliminary Bremen passive microwave image should be a very good example of the problem with what i assume is high clouds made up of ice? Any metereologists/remote sensing people in the forum?

In the Beaufort sea there is extensive melt going on with very scattered ice as has been seen in the few clear days in visible images and yesterday and the day before that in micro as well.

Yet in todays image, the concentration is close to 100% and the iceedge sharp as a knife, giving a binary open water/ice with nothing inbetween.

In visual images the area is covered with clouds that appear epecially white and in the infrared band pink compared to ordinary clouds which are white and the ice which is red.

So we could be in for a noisepeak in tomorrows area estimate and perhaps a sharp drop in extent?

[Anu]

Speaking of sea ice concentration, the ice bridge by Severnaya Zemlya (connecting to the Taymyr Peninsula), which is currently the only sea ice blocking the Northern Sea Route (North East Passage) looks close to melting through:
ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/NEAR_REAL_TIME/NSR_latest_large.png

Once the sea ice concentration turns blue (about 25% or less) that means the top melt and bottom melt are pretty advanced - since it is still July, I bet the ice bridge melts through within the next week. Winds can rearrange the ice, but I think it is just a matter of time before it opens up. There is a narrow backbone of more concentrated sea ice along the ice bridge, but surrounded soon by open water on two sides, it should melt fast.

[Neven]

Yet in todays image, the concentration is close to 100% and the iceedge sharp as a knife, giving a binary open water/ice with nothing inbetween.

That's exactly what I mean what I said 'blinking flash light'. CT seems to be a bit more consistent.

Anu, that's good news for our Norwegian friends who are heading that way.

[Neven]

Still cloudy in the Canadian Archipelago, but the ice in those straits and seas that are in contact with the multiyear ice is cracking up nicely.

[Artful Dodger]

Hi Anu. I was looking at the Severnaya Zemlya ice bridge issue last night. 2010 is now closest to Aug 16, 2008. This year, the strait is clearing mostly from the Atlantic side and should open by about Aug 5.

2008 is the only previous year where there was no landfast ice North of Severnaya Zemlya at the annual minimum. If this recurs this year, the granular 2010 pack ice will move freely with the transpolar drift and prevailing winds.

The Great Circle distance between Severnaya Zemlya and Svalbard is 1435 km. At a drift rate averaging 30 km / day, that is just on 7 weeks (48 days) for an ice floe to transit that distance.

If the Arctic Dipole Anomaly (DA) returns in force as Andrew Xnn suggests above, we could see dramatic sea ice advection through Fram Strait this Fall.