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Steve, where I wrote Nares Strait @ 04:28 add - change it to Fram Strait. Oops.


With 5,249,688 SIE reported by JAXA today, 2010 has just nudged under 2009 ( by 156 sqkm !!!). Whether this report survives tomorrow's revision, a 54k decrease is significant so late in the melting season.


Pending any revisions, we have a significant number on IJIS today: 5,249,688.

Having finally passed 2005 yesterday, today's figure is just below the minimum of 2009 (5,249,844 on 13th Sept), leaving only 2008 and 2007 out in front.

2008 minimum is still 540,000 sq km away, so I doubt we'll be reaching that (even 2007 only lost 330,000 sq kms between the 3rd and its minimum on the 24th), but the gap has closed a bit.

Kevin McKinney

. . . and the prelim SIE is---5,249,688 km2!

That's under the 2009 minimum (5,249,844) by a couple of hundred.

Now the wait for the revision. . . .

Jon Torrance


A note - 2007 wasn't the biggest loser from September 3rd to the end of the melt season in the JAXA record. That distinction belongs to 2005, which lost another 374,219 km2. Not a huge difference but considering how much more fragile the ice surviving now is compared to most of the ice that hadn't melted by this point in 2007 (and the fact that there's more extent therefore the edge of the icepack has to be further south on average than in 2007 and presumably exposed to warmer waters), 2010 could yet surprise us. Not to say I'd bet on it overhauling 2008 but we're entering uncharted waters here, with the best available model suggesting we're all but certain to have lower arctic sea ice volume this month than humans have ever witnessed before. I think people are a little bit too dismissive of the odds of quite a bit more extent loss to go, if the weather over the next few weeks is favourable to extent loss. History may be the best guide those of us who aren't up to modeling the physical processes have, but just because something is unprecedented doesn't mean it's can't happen.

Lord Soth

If you look at the NSIDC ice extent, you will notice that there was no flat line, just a nice steady decline.


Now NSIDC does average for 5 days, but since the flatline on IJIS covered a 4-5 day period, we should have seen something.

I believe NSIDC uses a larger area for pixel size (resolution) than IJIS, and it looks like the flat line was just noise within the resolution that IJIS was using.

With 250K to go to break the 5M barrier, it it still possible.

What ever the outcome, it appears that 5 million sq km, plus or minus some standard deviation, has become the new normal for Minimun Sea ice Extent, and any talk of recovery should be put to rest.

It will be interesting to see if we will get a catastrophic drop to zero volume, or if it will be a series of declines on good weather years, followed by a period of leveling within a small range with bad weather years. The next few years should be interesting.

With Hurricane Earl makine a unwelcome visit to Halifax, this may be my last post for a few days.

Kevin McKinney

Good luck with Earl, LS. . .


I cannot wait to see Update 28. I have posted a discussion on Humboldt Glacier , what I have I not thought of that needs to be covered? What images are musts to use from MODIS? I look forward to further valuable input.

r w Langford

Jaxa SIE Sept 3, 5.25. The graph mimics 2007 with this large drop in the last two days.


r w Langford, congratulations, that was comment number 2000!

Continue at the newest SIE update 28, please.

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