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Gas Glo

"The minimum ice extent for the year will probably occur in the next two weeks."

Anyone think they are going out on a limb here? 2005 had minimum on 22 Sept and 2007 had minimum on 24th Sept. 2 in 5 failed to be within 2 weeks of 7 Sept. A 60% probability might be enough to say "probably". However, is it as high a probability as 60% if

1. The trend is towards later dates.
2. There has been high melt early in the season allowing more time for more heat to be absorbed by ocean and this is likely to be significant factor in date of onset of freeze though weather is clearly the dominant effect.
3. Current and forecast weather conditions??
4. High recent rate of extent reduction.
5. Large PIPS arrows in southerly direction in Fram straight encouraging export and spreading. (note spreading does not necessarily lead to extent reduction 70% coverage to 60% coverage would be an increase in extent but 20% to 10% is a reduction in extent.)
6. Large PIPS arrows in general suggesting minimum is not close. (I am far from convinced that Neven has examined sufficient years to suggest this and I don't think you can easily extrapolate hypotheses from a small number of years. Hence I am putting this down at number 6.)

or am I just seeing all the things that alarmists see and failing to see things pointing in the other direction?

Maybe I should ask the author if they want to bet on it?

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