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L. Hamilton

I'll have another graphic to add on this topic after the NSIDC September numbers come out, but in the meantime I'll take this chance to add my thanks to Neven for building such a cool site. The online community here seems a smart and uniquely constructive bunch, I don't know how that managed to happen.

And for the months ahead, my vote too is to keep some thread(s) open for discussion of whatever comes up. Like, Antarctic ice shelves or even sea ice.

Steve Bloom

Great work, Werther. NSIDC should use this in their season summary.

r w Langford

I too want to add my thanks to Neven for putting this site together and for all the amazing analysis that was presented each week. You never ceased to amaze me with the breadth of information you came up with and presented with such great graphics. I now have a bookmark list as long as my arm. It will take me all winter just to organize them and come to understand their data. I also want to thank all the other technowizards who presented data and analysis that made the process come alive. It took me all summer just to learn how to put a URL in the text. This didn't stop me from understanding and anticipating events before they unfolded.
I hope this group stays together as long as the fat lady stays onstage.
(ps I hope there are no fat ladies listening)
On global warming here in Victoria BC, we have had the wettest September on record with another week to go. Warm Pacific el Nino water from last year and winds from Japan and Hawaii.
Stay Cool


Nice work, Werther!

The pixel-counters may be more exact, but 2010 has almost 200k less extent in the high concentration compared to 2007

I guess I'm one of the pixel counters (trading time surplus for skill deficit!), and I came to exactly the same conclusion about ten days ago:

I was talking about compaction in the current season: "In essence, it would have to compact ~200,000 sq kms without losing any area to be tracking in the same range as the last couple of years." (by which I meant the average of 2007, 2008, 2009).

Different approach, same conclusions. Always a nice place to be.


Frank D
I remember having read your post. The group is getting a 'sustained' insight in the SI situation out of the respective talent of each member. Nice to be part of. Now we just have to wait and see if Cryosat-2 will be calibrated allright or if we're as a group are way out in assuming the late summer bathtub will be there in 2-3 years.

Greg Wellman

Certainly this analysis is consistent with the PIOMAS volume estimates. 2007's record extent loss left only "the hard stuff" behind. Now we have a little more extent, with less volume, so there's less solid concentrated ice and more distributed slush.

Very nice visual representation!

Charles Wilson

And PIOMAS has Updated to Sept.15 = -9500 Anomaly (they posted, then changed back & forth -- my first measure was 9600). As Sept. Median is 13,400, this is, at BEST, about 3900. However as the slope changed near Aug. 31 with that differing by only 150 km3, likely if we got a day-by-day it would be under 100 below the Median.

A bigger problem is that PIOMAS misses the Center Area & so was High in 2007 by 1300 km3 for November 1. Apply that & you get a stunning 2600. 2007 however, though ICESAT recorded 6000, that was likely the all-October average because PIOMAS's Oct. mean was = 7300 which is the right amount above.
>> to backtrack an October reading to Sept, the average Sept-Oct growth is 1150 so:
2007 = 4850 at Minimum
2009 = 5800
2010 = 2550-3900 (cubic Kilometers)
... P.S. NSIDC just equalled 2008 at 4.52 by my eye ...

Charles Wilson

Unfortunately, as Anthony Watts pointed out, though it went down a tick, NSIDC revised the previous day by more than today's Drop . Now 1.5 pixels or ~ 25,000 Short of 2008.

BIG jumps at Bremen & Norsex, however the Arctic Central Basin, after losing 250,000 has remelted 71,000, dragging Cryo Area down.
Is this a Leading Indicator ? What will the Hurricanes do ??

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