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Artful Dodger

I watch this temperature profile chart from the Pt Barrow Sea Ice Mass Balance Site:

Amazingly, the temperature in the middle of the sea ice layer has increased from -4 C a few days ago to -2.5 C now...

Neven, would you consider replacing one of the non-updating graphics on your Sea Ice Graphs page with this one?

Cheers, Lodger

R. Gates

Thanks for the Barrow breakup update. Based on my current analysis, I expect the forecast to show the date for the breakup right smack between the June 27th line and the July 4th line...so right around June 30th.


There's a preliminary forecast on the UAF Sea Ice group webpage:

Current forecast for break-up: after June 14

Artful Dodger

Hi Neven, your link seems to be 'under-populated'...

Timothy Chase

Dodger, I think Neven meant:

2011 Sea Ice Break-Up Forecast for Barrow, Alaska

... which currently gives:

Current forecast for break-up: after June 15
Break-up can be forecast no more than 16 days in advance

Artful Dodger

Thanks Timothy. That's an important distinction. "Not before June 16" does not mean they are predicting a June 16 breakup.

Artful Dodger

"The mass balance probe has been recovered for the season on 7 June 2011..."

"Ice thickness may be incorrect since June 1, 2011 due to melt at the site."


Rob Dekker

Thanks Neven, for this focus on the Barrow break up. And Timothy, for the link to the 2011 projection.
Considering that most of the break ups at Barrow occurred between July 4 and July 11, I am not surprised that this year's projection is "after June 24" or whatever the current prognosis entails.

Even though it is an interesting metric, since the break up at Barrow pertains only to land-bound ice and seems to keep little correlation with minimum sea ice extent, I doubt that it has much to do with the overall state of the Arctic Basin sea ice, or Arctic sea ice state in general. Anyone cares to dispute that statement ?

michael sweet

All the data available needs to be considered. When the multi year ice is gone will the first year ice continue to form the same thickness or thinner? The Barrow ice gives data to see what will happen. There is a lot of year to year variation, and the record is short, but as more years are collected the pattern will show. If the sea ice at Barrow starts to break up earlier in the melt season that indicates the rest of the ice is getting thinner also. The Canadian Ice Service has some data on ice north of Barow that shows it is melting more every year.

Gas Glo

Break up forecast is now 'on' 8 July rather than 'after' 16 days.


Thanks, Gas Glo. I think I'll do an update tomorrow.

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