During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good explanation of what sea ice extent is in their FAQ. I also look at other things like sea ice area, concentration, volume, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest. Check out the Arctic sea ice graph webpage for daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.
June 17th 2011
I'm never going on a holiday during the melting season again. It's amazing how much everything can change in just two weeks.I've been so busy catching up that I need another holiday.
In the last SIE update 3 weeks ago I was wondering if the 11 million mark would be passed before the end of the month for the first time (it didn't), and now the 10 million mark has been passed on the earliest date in the IJIS dataset.
Having a look at my spreadsheet helps a lot to see what has happened (first century breaks have been rolling in, more on that in a separate blog post in a couple of days), but I really miss the PIPS ice displacement forecast maps to see how the ice has moved these past couple of weeks. Luckily (and gratefully) I was able to glean a lot of info from the many comments that were posted during my absence.
Apparently weather conditions shifted yet again, slowing things down on the Canadian side - notably the Beaufort Sea where sea ice is no longer churned away towards Russia under the influence of the Beaufort Gyre - but wreaking havoc on the Siberian coast. This is resulting in serious drops in SIE and SIA.
Sea ice extent (SIE)
Here's the IJIS SIE graph:
If you click for the larger version you can actually see a pinch of white between this year's trend and the one from 2010, which was doing some pretty awesome stuff last year. This year could be awesomer, at least during June.
The current difference between 2011 and the other years is as follows:
- 2005: -530K (-57,531)
- 2006: -381K (-59,609)
- 2007: -618K (-63,328)
- 2008: -707K (-57,526)
- 2009: -790K (-55,938)
- 2010: -143K (-74,120)
Between brackets is the average daily extent rate for the month of June. 2011's average daily extent rate for June is currently -73,184 square kilometers, just below the incredible June 2010 average. 2006's role has been played out for the rest of the season, the other trend lines are too far away to merit any attention until the end of the month.
It's between 2010 and 2011 now. The former has a very strong finish from now to the end of June, but the latter has built up a lead of 143K and isn't showing any signs of slowing down in this clash of the titans. This is also obvious on the Uni Bremen extent rate graph:
Sea ice area (SIA)
As SIA is also dropping (obviously), the trend line on the Cryosphere Today SIA anomaly graph has become a tad less boring and is again moving away from the minus minus 1 million square km mark:
Now that all the action has returned to the Siberian side of the Arctic the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and even the East Siberian Sea are showing heavy drops. But as always this is compensated on the other side, where the Beaufort Sea has shown a radical upturn. SIA decrease in the Greenland Sea and Baffin/Newfoundland Bay has also slowed down a bit, but Hudson Bay is going down fast.
CryosphereToday area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)
As expected in the last update SIE caught up with SIA, meaning CAPIE has gone up a bit and looks normal now for the time of year:
But soon melt ponds are going to play a big role in how the CAPIE percentage drops. We'll discuss that when it happens.
Sea level pressure
My life has just become more difficult with the PIPS ice displacement forecast maps no longer being updated. I have mailed the Naval Research Laboratory to ask if PIPS will come online again, and hopefully they'll answer soon. I can't remember if the same thing happened last year, as I started using the ice displacement maps towards the end of the melting season.
DMI has a similar product, but it "will not be updated between May and September (both month inclusive), due to dubious quality during ice surface melt". There's another one from Mercator or some such. I have to see if it's still being updated. Let me know in the comments if you know of a thing with arrows on it.
All I can do for now is make an animation of the ECMWF SLP forecast for the coming week:
These forecasts aren't very trustworthy the further out they go, but it will be interesting to see if indeed those high pressure systems start dominating the North American side of the Arctic, meaning the Beaufort Gyre starts kicking into gear again. We'll know it is if SIA in the Beaufort Sea starts dropping again and ice floes start drifting into some of those huge polynya's on the other side.
The Arctic Oscillation Index is pretty negative (and projected to stay more or less negative the coming 10-14 days), so plenty of high pressure areas to be expected, meaning clear skies as we approach Summer Solstice:
Update conclusion
2011 is in the process of taking the lead in all graphs as we speak. The big question is: can the melting keep up with awesome 2010, or be even awesomer? What will the weather do? Or is the thin ice so thin it doesn't matter?
I'm sure we'll discuss this on a daily basis now. In the meantime I suggest we seriously start watching the MODIS images, what with Nares Strait possibly breaking up, and the Passages starting to open up, and strange little holes around the North Pole, and fast ice turning blue, and the ice pack soon turning grey, and the temperatures shooting up on land and sea around the Arctic, and the century breaks, and... and... and...
The Arctic: so slow, yet so fast. No more holidays.
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TIPS - Other blog posts and news articles concerning the Arctic and its ice:
Reuters photographer Lucas Jackson has shot some beautiful pictures while visiting the 2011 Applied Physics Laboratory Ice Station.
One of the best pieces I have read on coastal erosion in the Arctic on Yale Environment 360.
Welcome back Neven! And the postings are back in shape. (There's a tiny error in the paragraph starting with "It's between 2010 and 2011 now" making it seem that 2010 was still in the lead)
Posted by: www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawkjfw0fNXl4BHkhaUhMKP47rZJlrhs8fCs | June 17, 2011 at 21:55
Fixed, thanks!
Posted by: Neven | June 17, 2011 at 22:00
You be sure WE'RE studying the MODIS pics vigorously!!!
Of particular interest: The many cracks and rifts north of Greenland, isn't this worse this year than those in latter years?
My personal belief is that this year will be the "new" 2007, a year to look back at in awe... All info lead to that conclusion: Thinner ice than prior, warmer summers than prior, less volume than prior, so are we to be such surprised by the spectacular headstart this summer?!
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | June 17, 2011 at 22:38
Well, I've got some work to do this weekend, but if I finish, I may reward myself (and Neven) by writing a program do produce an image from the TOPAZ ice_x and ice_y data.
You'll be the first to know.....
bill
Posted by: Bfraser | June 18, 2011 at 08:04
Bill, we await in anticipation... :-)
BTW, can anyone tell me how the IJIS revisions went in the past two weeks. Still upwards every day by 20-25K?
Yesterday's reported melt has come in at -67K (before revision). Did I jinx it already with my Goddard-esque flurry of posts yesterday?
Posted by: Neven | June 18, 2011 at 08:53
Yes, Neven, still upward revisions in that range! So you sure must have cooled the situation, slipped Arctic ice down our spine, just to remind us how fast things are able to change!
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | June 18, 2011 at 09:50
Frantic googling for ice vectors :) Little results :(
Medium Resolution Sea Ice Drift (OSI-407) should offer data also during summer months. But the links are dead ("coming soon"). Maybe some sign of public interest... http://saf.met.no/p/ice/index.html
Never got their java applet to run, nice overview images tho: http://www.seaice.dk/latest-ice.html
Forgot satellites, the buoys can't be accused being 'only models': http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/index.html
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 18, 2011 at 11:22
Looks like Cryosat-2 data could also be used for sea current observations. Ocean surface levels reflect in and out flows:
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=897
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 18, 2011 at 13:06
An enormous decrease in CT Area (seems a little bit strange to me): from 8.7200527 to 8.4461870 in one day ??? That is 273.865,7 km2 in one day ?? Could it be they have some problems ? On the other hand, new value seems to be more compatible with other measurements comparing to 2010.
Posted by: Patrice Pustavrh | June 18, 2011 at 13:30
Patrice, this is definitely possible. In 2008 there even was a drop of 437K at the start of May!
Posted by: Neven | June 18, 2011 at 13:40
Massive melt pond formation from one day to the next?
Posted by: Jon Torrance | June 18, 2011 at 14:23
Hi All,
Something is likely to be wrong if, on the same day, (17 June) IJIS extent falls by 67k, and CT area by 273k - a discepancy of 206k.
It seems that CT is registering large areas of the strange translucent blue ice in the Canadian Archipelago, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian seas as anything as low as 50% coverage.
On the satellite images, these areas appear to be nearly 100% ice-covered, albeit with strange blue ice.
Posted by: idunno | June 18, 2011 at 15:00
Idunno, I believe CT Area and IJIS extent don't follow each other synchronously. There are often differences in magnitude. I believe Lodger has stated that CT area follows IJIS extent with a delay of 2-3 days.
It could also be that Hudson Bay is getting slaughtered.
Posted by: Neven | June 18, 2011 at 15:06
Clearly, CT SIA in the Canadian Archipelago is at issue, dropping ~100K in the last update:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.12.jpg
BTW, the date-stamp 2011.4575 represents data for the 24 hr period spanning June 16, 2011.
Let's wait a few update cycles to see if this drop's a head-fake like 2010, or the start of the real fisticuffs.
Anyone watching MODIS? :^)
Posted by: Artful Dodger | June 18, 2011 at 21:20
Going trough CT, you will see that many regions had a vertical drop in their last data point. Looks like a change of algorithm between winter and summer?
Posted by: Yvan Dutil | June 18, 2011 at 22:36
The last week have tormented the Canadian Archipelago with plenty degrees above zero, thereby creating enormous amounts of meltwater and meltponds on top of the sea and fjord-ice. So the vertical drop is probably due to these "misreadings".
No matter errors or not, the ice will go to bits in a week or two....Nature's law!
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | June 18, 2011 at 23:19
I think we could see ice free Pole this year. Russians put their flag down there a few years back, anyone knows if they got some sediment samples up? And if so, is there any results published. I suppose the nearest period Arctic Basing being ice free could be the Holocene Optimum some 6000 years ago.
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 19, 2011 at 11:54
Our friend Patrick Lockerby has posted a new blog entry: "Arctic Ice June 2011"
Posted by: Artful Dodger | June 19, 2011 at 18:30
At the north pole web cam site camera 1 seems to have a melt pond next to the wind generator in the center of the picture. In camera 2 the snow has a poxed look, is that melt ponds about to form? Last year once a few ponds formed the ponds were widespread in two or three days.
Posted by: michael sweet | June 19, 2011 at 20:18
... I just checked the webcams and came here to post that. Beaten by 6 minutes :-(
Posted by: Peter Ellis | June 19, 2011 at 20:24
And earlier today I wrote in Retrospective 1:
Coincidence, eh?
Posted by: Neven | June 19, 2011 at 20:31
Hi all,
Just to note that CT area has now fallen by over 1 million over the last 7 days.
This has only happened ever a handful of times during the satellite period.
Over the same period, the anomaly has grown by over 1/2 million, and is now 1.516.
Posted by: idunno | June 19, 2011 at 21:25
From the North Pole Web Cam site:
"In 2010, the snow became soft Jun 25, similar to many other years, but widespread meltponds formed by Jun 27"
If this is a melt pond it is about 8 days earlier than last year, the previous earliest year. We should know for sure in a few days.
Posted by: michael sweet | June 19, 2011 at 22:43
I did a ‘florida-recount’ on my 90.000 km² research area north of Greenland. Based on the very clear MODIS pic day 163 my CAD found some 400 more or less unified floes larger than 16 km². They accounted for almost 43% of the total area.
MODIS let me trace some 200 polynia’s, most of them very small (median 2,3 km²), the largest area 209 km² just to the NE of Cape Morris Jesup. That total is almost insignificant (0,5%).
But the alarming part of the story is 56,9% leads filled with ‘rubble’. The rubble consists of floes smaller than 16 km². I didn’t get myself mad at digitalising all of that debris, but the ones I picked up being worth the agony (some 170) made up for just 3,7% of the total lead area (51199 km²).
Most of the area is really crumbled. It seems almost impossible to cross and I awe at the task the Norse canoeing couple has put itself on.
For the big picture; extrapolating the results for the Arctic Basin over 80 degrees north gives some more slack in volume than I got last week. Thickness 2,5 m for the large floes/1,4 m for the rubble in the leads stands for 5200 km³ as of day 163 (within my math, my former teachers always liked my methods, not my accuracy...).
Does that sound comforting?
Posted by: Werther | June 20, 2011 at 00:37
Werther, that sounds very interesting. Have you tried doing the same for 2010 and 2009, for comparison's sake?
Posted by: Neven | June 20, 2011 at 00:40
Hi,
WebCam 1: now it is clear, it is melt
Posted by: Paolo | June 20, 2011 at 07:26
Thanks, Paolo. Blog post is up.
Posted by: Neven | June 20, 2011 at 08:07
Hi all,
Sea Surface Temps in the Bering Strait and entrance to the Choo-choo (spelling forgotten) Sea have shot right up in the last few days.
Also, there has been a large warm patch developing in the Pacific, considerably to the North of where I think an El Nino normally occurs.
Posted by: idunno | June 20, 2011 at 15:13
I found a thing with PLENTY of arrows in it:
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 20, 2011 at 16:29
WOW, Janne! Thanks a lot! You have no idea how much this means to me. I've put it on the daily graphs page straight away.
Posted by: Neven | June 20, 2011 at 16:46
Unfortunately, the caption says that those are the *annual* ice flow vectors (i.e. averaged over a whole year). The only bits that actually update are the yellow/blue triangles denoting active buoys.
Posted by: Peter Ellis | June 20, 2011 at 18:32
Darn it! You're right, Peter. I can't believe I overlooked the word 'annual' when I was trying to find out where they got those arrows from.
Sniff... :-(
Posted by: Neven | June 20, 2011 at 18:36
Losing one battle perhaps....but not the War!
How come all these webcams are not functioning any more, Neven?
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | June 20, 2011 at 23:55
As stated above the DMI ice displacement product "will not be updated between May and September (both month inclusive), due to dubious quality during ice surface melt". But PIPS was operational throughout the whole melting season last year, so it is strange that it has been offline for so long.
I have sent two messages to the Naval Research Laboratory, but no answer as of yet.
Posted by: Neven | June 21, 2011 at 02:18
Hi all,
A very merry solstice to y'all.
Anybody who's actually in a good mood will probably find it abruptly wrecked by a new report just out from the International Programme for the State of the Ocean, @:
http://www.stateoftheocean.org/
Precis: they're buggered; we're doomed.
Posted by: idunno | June 21, 2011 at 08:15
Stupid, stupid, stupid me!
Ok. Antes up!
I don't know Russian, but google translation and the map itself definitely look promising:
"FORECASTING DATA
On the basis of numerical thermodynamic model of the evolution of the ice cover is projected complex oceanographic and ice characteristics - the average sea ice drift, direction and speed of currents, denivelyatsiya surface level and other indicators. District - SLO. The lead time - up to 7 days, the refresh rate - 1 per week (Thursday). Development and support: zav.otd."
http://www.aari.ru/projects/ecimo/ModuleLoad.php?mod=f0013_ice&in=1
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 21, 2011 at 11:19
Hi Janne,
Great Find!
Also, if you click on the map, this brings up a "GIF1" file - manually changing this to "GIF2", "GIF3", etc brings up ice displacement maps for the subsequent days of the week.
Posted by: idunno | June 21, 2011 at 11:37
Great find Janne.
That's the same ice drift prediciton map that dispappeared in the middle of last summer. It is a great short term prediction tool for extent.
Neven is going to be very happy.
Posted by: Lord Soth | June 21, 2011 at 12:18
And we have another lead change; a couple of days of lacklustre (50kish) declines have left 2010 at the head of the IJIS pack.
Posted by: Kevin McKinney | June 21, 2011 at 14:50
And likely to stay ahead for a bit - 2010 logged its best 7-day total between 23rd and 29th June. Peeled off 688600 sq km's in a week (9th biggest single-week melt in the IJIS books).
2011 is going to struggle to match that. 2010 will probably stay ahead until it's distinct flattening from around 7th July.
Posted by: FrankD | June 21, 2011 at 16:08
There's something rotten in the state of Beaufort sea. Might entail big drop. Don't know if the negative phase of the oscillation matters? (Anyway, I've ordered it to turn positive mid July, when my vacation begins :)
Posted by: Janne Tuukkanen | June 21, 2011 at 16:47
Thanks again, Janne! I think this time you really hit the jackpot. I regularly watched this map last year, when all of a sudden it vanished. I often checked if it was back, but now it really is.
Remind me to send you an Arctic umbrella (as soon as I convinced Lodger to give me his). ;-)
Posted by: Neven | June 21, 2011 at 16:50
NSIDC is showing a steady decline.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
I believe they use a 5 day average, but with four days of 50K or less ice loss, we should have seen a change in the slope. They also use larger cell sizes and overestimate the amount of sea ice, this time of year.
I suspect the slowdown in IJIS is artificial and is caused by the spreading of the pack by weather.
The ice in Hudson Bay alone is going fast,under clear sky and high pressure and should account for what we are seeing in IJIS ice loss alone.
Posted by: Lord Soth | June 21, 2011 at 17:24
The 2011 Arctic sea ice extent minimum prediction pool on Lounge of the Lab Lemming is open.
Posted by: Neven | June 21, 2011 at 22:37
The new link to NASA's Arctic Mosaic is:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic
Posted by: Artful Dodger | June 22, 2011 at 05:40
There's some impressively warm water flowing in from the Pacific side: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
(and switch to "anomalies")
Wasn't warm water from the Pacific a feature of 2007 too?
Posted by: FrankD | June 22, 2011 at 09:38
Hi Neven. Could you please add a link to NSIDC's MASIE (Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent) page on your Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page? Prost!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | June 23, 2011 at 20:46
There already was a link there to the CSV-file containing all the data, but I've added a link to the homepage. I wish they had a live image of that extent map though, so I could put it between the other ones.
I have an occasional look at the MASIE data. How do you like it, Lodger?
Posted by: Neven | June 23, 2011 at 23:00
Impresive low ice concentrations in the Beaufort sea on Cryosphere Today.
Posted by: dorlomin | June 24, 2011 at 14:24
Based on the russian ice drift prediction map, it appears that we are heading into a few days of ice compaction.
We should see 1 or 2 century breaks (or near misses) over the next three to four days.
Posted by: Lord Soth | June 24, 2011 at 18:42
Indeed, Lord Soth. It's getting high time for a new update. Sorry for the delay (it's all PIPS' fault).
Posted by: Neven | June 24, 2011 at 20:15