I enjoy making animations of Nares Strait and the Northwest Passage as they break up, but perhaps the most interesting area for observing the developing ice break-up is the Canadian Archipelago. The reason is simple. As all Arctic aficionados know, most of the (remaining) multiyear ice is pressed up against the shores of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland. Of course, some of that ice gets exported to lower latitudes through Nares Strait and Fram Strait. Some of the multiyear ice gets swirled around by the Beaufort Gyre (during winter mainly) and does a tour of the Arctic if it doesn't melt out in the Beaufort Sea in summer, which it mostly does nowadays. The rest remains where it is and thickens some more during winter.
Up till now that multiyear ice that was pressed against the Canadian Archipelago had something to press up to. But as we saw in the first half of August last year (check the animation) all of the ice in those channels started breaking up and multiyear ice was transported from the Arctic Basin to lower latitudes where a lot of it melted out. Some of it froze up in the Northwest Passage, which could be a reason the passage is a bit slower in breaking up than it was last year.
So let's have a look at how things are progressing this year. As always I advise you to focus on a particular area of the animation instead of taking it all in. If you want to know the names of the channels, you can have a look at this wonderful map from Arcticio.
Update July 31st: I've added yesterdays's image (day 211). It looks like ice transport through Sverdrup and Peary Channel could start within a week or so. Some highs are forecasted for this region, so hopefully we get some clear images.
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Yes, things are breaking up again. I'm also seeing some in situ melting. To compare with last year I've made this blink comparison:
I would call this a draw, with 2010 perhaps being just a bit ahead, but then again, the 2010 snapshot was made 1 day later (it's not easy finding relatively cloudless images).
As soon as ice transport gets underway, I'll make more detailed animations of Sverdrup Channel and Peary Channel, and Ballantyne Strait and the Prince Gustaf Adolf Sea, just like I did last year.
CT SIE maps are beginning to look like someone started punching random numbers into a fractal generator. Has anyone else noticed the anomaly that keeps showing up between the North Pole and Franz Josef Land? I've noticed it off and on for several weeks - it must be an equipment malfunction. I've circled the crescent shaped anomaly
Zooming in on the MODIS images of the East Siberian Sea coast, there are some spectacular images that must be algal blooms. I'm usually more interested in the condition of the ice, but there's less and less of it to look at :)
Algal Blooms in the East Siberian Sea
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 26, 2011 at 04:32
Thinks are not looking to good. A lot of the posters on Americanwx Climate change forum think we will be even with 2010 now because of the recent slow down.
I am not an expert but I would be stunned if we only drop another 2 mil km2 on the extent. The Sea Ice Area is at all time lows for this time of year. Well over a million km2 of ice is already losing concentration rapidly.
I am going with 4.3 mil km2 maybe more maybe less
Posted by: Chris Biscan | July 26, 2011 at 10:10
Nice work Neven - it will be interesting to watch this develop over the next six weeks. One thing thats not obvious in the animation is that the channels off the image to the lower left (around Bathurst and Devon Islands) are much clearer than last year, which should allow quick advection as the break-up progresses (although I agree that 2010 is ahead at the moment).
You did a fine job last year on the "Pole Hole". I'm thinking you will probably want to watch that area closely too (not trying to set you homework though). From what I can tell through the cloud, it looks like the Laptev/Siberian side is going all cheesy again...
Posted by: FrankD | July 26, 2011 at 11:32
Anything above 2007's extent and the deniosphere will be saying the Arctic is recovering.
Anything below 2007's extent and the story will be it is all part of a natural cycle and there is still lots of sea ice in the Antarctic.
Either way the end result will be: politicians and others will still do next to nothing.
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 26, 2011 at 12:45
Typed the word 'passage' in the search box to see if anyone had mentioned the full-open of the main (NW) passage through the CA, but CT and Bremen maps suggests it is now truly wide open, bar the slivers floating around.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.003.png
Posted by: Seke Rob | August 24, 2011 at 20:50
I just thought the same thing a minute ago when looking at the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map. Funny that this hardly news anymore, eh? Fourth year in a row now for both passages being open?
I'll do a short post on this in a day or two. If I can be bothered. ;-)
Really annoying BTW that things have been cloudy for so long now. I'd really love to have a clear view of the CA for a couple of days in a row.
Posted by: Neven | August 24, 2011 at 20:52
There hasn't been too much about the NWP so far, but Matt Ryan, the "solo the Americas" guy, cleared it with no problems. He's about halfway to Point Barrow, AK, if I'm reading his GoogleMap position (and remembering where Point Barrow is) correctly.
Posted by: Kevin McKinney | August 24, 2011 at 21:43
The NWP opened up a couple of days ago during the 'Great Excitement'. Attention went to the areas where ice made more dramatic changes.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 24, 2011 at 21:48
Coincidentally today a good satellite image of Sverdrup and Peary channels. If it weren't for the winds, I'm sure there'd be major ice transport through the channels of the Queen Elizabeth Islands.
Posted by: Neven | August 25, 2011 at 00:48