22nd of July: I'm a bit too early with this, but that's to make up for the things I'm late with. Due to the recent switch in weather patterns it is safe to expect that - at least for a while - we'll see increased advection of ice through Fram Strait. As last year's Race to Fram Strait blog post(s) quite nicely showed the ice transport starting halfway August, I'm starting this animation now.
The images were retrieved from the Uni Bremen sea ice concentration map archive, which I prefer over cloudy MODIS images. This animation will be regularly updated and can also be viewed through the animations page (button in the menu bar).
Now, without further ado:
Update September 8th: Added images from the previous two days. Here too some of the ice reappears, but obviously the winds are tearing into the ice pack.
Update September 6th: Added images from the previous two days. The ice pack seems to expand a bit more towards the Atlantic. Update 2: And some of the ice goes missing on the preliminary map.
Update September 3rd: Added images from the previous five days. Not much happening, I think. Rather than seeing transport, we see the edge of the ice pack receding.
Update August 30th: Added images from the previous three days.
Update August 26th: Added images from the previous two days. The ice is one the move, although the ice pack isn't really expanding towards Fram (due to melting in warm waters?).
Update August 24th: Added images from the previous four days. Transport could be in the works in a day or two.
Update August 21st: Added images from the previous seven days. Still a stalemate.
Update August 14th: Added images from the previous four days. The ice pack is pulling back again.
Update August 11th: Added images from the previous two days, and removed images from July. Transport is steaming full speed ahead.
Update August 8th: Added images from the previous three days. Some serious ice transport going on there. If this keeps up...
Update August 5th: Added images from the previous three days, and removed images of the first ten. As was mentioned by Paul Klemencic transport towards the Atlantic has resumed.
Update August 2nd: Added images from the previous three days. Ice transport might be resuming.
Update Juy 31st: Added images from the previous two days. Due to atmospheric pressures ice transport has been transported towards the Laptev Sea. One of the clear signs is the area of water opening up on the northeast coast of Greenland from July 26th onwards.
Update July 28th: Added today's image. Still no ice transport through Fram, and bound to stay that way for a few days to come.
Update July 27th: Added today's image. Things moving more towards Olga Strait (between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land).
Update July 26th: Added today's image. Things moving more slowly now.
Update July 25th: Added today's image.
Update July 24th: Added today's image. If you look carefully, you see the ice pack has started moving towards the Svalbard archipelago (again) since July 22nd.
Update July 23rd: Added yesterday's and today's image.
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The transport isn't very apparent yet, only if you focus on the area between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land (bonus question: what was the name of that Strait again?). Coincidentally I came across this interesting paper by Ron Kwok (2009) called Outflow of Arctic Ocean Sea Ice into the Greenland and Barents Seas: 1979–2007.
On a final note, I want to add that there seems to be quite a bit more sea ice in the Greenland Sea than usual:
Olga Strait, a lovely name...
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 22, 2011 at 05:53
Looked at Google Earth 3D where the deep trench is apparent as Fram takes off at the North Eastern tip of Greenland. Who knows is that an underlying part of the ''New Polynia'', causing phenomena reoccurring with regularity.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 22, 2011 at 10:49
Ah yeah, Olga Strait. Thanks, Lodger!
Posted by: Neven | July 22, 2011 at 14:58
De nada, Neven. Hat tip to our friend Jack Taylor from Sep 2010 for the original hint!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 22, 2011 at 16:05
ACNFS is predicting increased ice drift through the Fram Strait this weekend.
It was quite different this time last year
Posted by: Alan Wallcraft | July 23, 2011 at 04:22
As for location, is the current location in this map i.e. is webcam 1 / 2 same as noaa1/2?
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/DriftTrackMap.html
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 23, 2011 at 16:49
I'm quite sure it is, Seke Rob.
Thanks for posting those two images, Alan. I'm in the process of describing the differences between this year and last year for a new SIE update.
Posted by: Neven | July 23, 2011 at 17:06
even with it slowing you can see the edge of the ice fraid.
Posted by: Chris Biscan | July 27, 2011 at 00:12
This year's ice pack movement really teaches us a lot about how the pack spreads and contracts, almost similar to breathing. Your animation of the Fram Strait shows the ice export from July 18 until about July 23. Then the ice moves the other way, and open water appears and grows between the pack and Greenland's east coast. I see you commented on that, and this set of animation really shows it well.
Posted by: Paul Klemencic | July 29, 2011 at 20:18
I have been paying attention to the MODIS pictures of this area for the last two weeks and transport seems very slow to me. how fast or slow does it get can someone give me numbers please.
for example if you look at 1st August and then blink with today 5th august focused on the large area of fast ice about 20 miles east of where the large piece of fast ice has cracked off two days ago you will see a train of three 6-8 mile diameter ice floes. in 4 days one has basically not moved and the caboose has moved about 10-12 miles south east. so is that fast or slow?
An animation would be most interesting.
Posted by: Philiponfire | August 05, 2011 at 23:53
How does one 'see' the directional movement in the animation. Clearly things change. But from frame to frame I can't tell if ice is moving out and melting or if it is sloshing back and forth.
I have to take the transport-out part on faith anchored to the flow charts. Perhaps there's a trick I need to learn?
Wouldn't it be great if we had 'tracking collars' on come individual hunks of ice and could watch their movement (and melt) as time goes along?
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And another question that's been bugging me. Why does the ice tend to cling to the Greenland coast? Is there a prevailing wind or current? Or is it that any ice which makes it's way further east gets melted?
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 08, 2011 at 21:33
Argh, I can't believe I forgot to press the Save button.
The next three days of the animation will be up in a minute, Bob. You'll clearly see the ice pack expand towards Fram Strait.
Posted by: Neven | August 08, 2011 at 21:42
I guess I'm dense. I can see concentrations change and if I assume movement out and melting I can make what I see into movement out and melting.
But shown the animation without context and extra chart information I don't think I would see anything but colors rearranging themselves.
Perhaps if I saw the area above the frame top emptying out/moving in that direction.
I suspect most people would want to see Joe Ice and Jane Ice heading out the door and fading away into melted ice. I have no idea how to display what is happening in a way that would get the message across.
Except, is there a reliable measurement of actual current/flow through the Straight? If so, might that be overlayed in the form of a directional arrow something like the speed/drift charts.
Overall, it's no big thing. I appreciate seeing that things are in flux and not static. I can get the other info elsewhere...
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 08, 2011 at 22:05
Here's something that helps me see it better...
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=01&fy=2011&sm=08&sd=06&sy=2011
A CT comparison of 8/1/11 and 8/6/11. The heavy concentration (lavender and purple) ice is moving toward the Straight. If a bunch of that gets pushed through volume is going to get hurt.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 08, 2011 at 22:17
Bob, try to focus on the edge of the ice and ice pack as a whole, don't let yourself get distracted by the changing colours (that's mostly an artifact). From August 1st onwards you see the ice pack starting to move in a southwest direction. You can actually see the edge of the ice pack bumping into Svalbard (the big green archipelago in the middle).
Looking at the ice extending southwards along Greenland's eastern coast is not a good indicator either, because that far South the ice floes will melt out. So focus on the edge of the ice pack further North extending from Franz Josef Land to the north of Greenland.
Here's an animation from last year August 10th-September 2nd showing the transport towards Fram even clearer.
Posted by: Neven | August 08, 2011 at 22:18
Bob: watch the ice edge to detect movement. It's characteristic shape tends to be preserved as the pack moves.
You asked "Why does the ice tend to cling to the Greenland coast?". This is called 'fast-ice', which is short-form for land-fast ice. Fast ice tends to be thicker and grounded on land, so it behave differently during the melt season.
Finally, 'tracking collars' do exist for sea ice. They are called 'drift buoys'. There is a map of drift tracks on Neven's Daily Graphs page (see above).
I hear Neven's next movie will be titled: "Fast and Furious 11: Longyearbyen Drift"
;^)
Posted by: Artful Dodger | August 08, 2011 at 22:28
Thanks guys. I'll see if I can train my eyes.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 08, 2011 at 22:36
I tend to look for a large, oddly shaped chunk and try to follow it backward in time using lance-modis.
I've found much of the ice near Greenland to be stuck in gyres when the flow is strong and to head east at quieter times (probably due to katabatic winds.
BTW a spring tide is due tomorrow that may release a little more of the fast ice.
Posted by: Twemoran | August 08, 2011 at 22:46
Bob look at the modis images. there are enough identifiable floes to be able to see movement or lack of it.
there has been some movement south in the last ten days and some circling. the fastest floes I have identified are moving at about 10km per day.
assuming a 150km wide front and average thickness of 1.5M and 75% ice cover I get about 1.75cubic kilometres of ice moving south per day
Posted by: Philiponfire | August 08, 2011 at 23:12
that ain't transport, that's a freight train!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | August 11, 2011 at 11:17
Easiest (for me) to see if one watches the very large melt pond which starts on the NE tip of Greenland and gets shoved down-island.
Do wish researchers had the resources to drop buoys onto the ice pack as it moves out. Getting there would be the cost, a simple GPS transmitter would be cheap.
Perhaps researchers are doing satellite tracking and we don't get to see that data.
Posted by: Bob Wallace | August 14, 2011 at 23:31