During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good explanation of what sea ice extent is in their FAQ. I also look at other things like sea ice area, concentration, volume, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest. Check out the Arctic sea ice graph webpage for daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.
July 9th 2011
Last week I wrote in the conclusion of SIE 2011 update 10:
I think we are going to see above average melting the coming week, perhaps even some century breaks.
This is exactly what has come about. Not that it was hard to predict, as everything was pointing to a big high-pressure area stabilizing over the central Arctic. In fact, I even was a bit too cautious/cowardly. The first 8 days of July saw 5 century breaks, of which 3 made it into the top 10 of biggest daily extent decreases (h/t Lord Soth).
As the sun keeps burning hot and long, its rays reaching much of the ice in the Arctic Basin, 2011 is tracking 2007 and 2009, the only years having an average daily extent decrease of over 100,000 square km in the first 8 days of July. And although that high-pressure guaranteed a substantial drop in extent, there was and still is plenty to learn and observe.
Of course, dominating high-pressure areas are a prerequisite for mega-melt, but how much do details in distribution matter? The Dipole Anomaly requires a high-pressure area over the Canadian Archipelago, extending to Greenland. For the Beaufort Gyre to gyre the high-pressure should be ideally over the Beaufort Sea (hence the name I guess). But this current high-pressure area is very large and over the centre of the Arctic Basin, almost directly over the North Pole, which prohibits strong ice export through Fram Strait, to name a thing. Still the extent decreases fast.
What will the effect of all this insolation in the middle of the ice pack be as we enter the second halftime of the melting season? And of course the million dollar question: will 2011 keep tracking 2007? How long is this high going to dominate?
Sea ice extent (SIE)
Here's the current IJIS SIE graph:
2011 decided to forge ahead, leaving 2010 in the dust and even increasing the lead over 2007. This is quite amazing as 2007 had a stunning run of century breaks in this first part of July. I guess I don't have to explain that this means 2011 is currently leading in the race. 2010 is finished for the rest of the month and will fall back quickly. The same goes for 2006, albeit to a lesser extent. 2009 will start to put up a fight towards the end of the month. But right now it's between 2011 and mighty 2007.
The current difference between 2011 and the other years is as follows:
- 2005: -684K (-83,709)
- 2006: -338K (-70,025)
- 2007: -234K (-98,608)
- 2008: -873K (-81,068)
- 2009: -730K (-92,127)
- 2010: -175K (-62,601)
Between brackets is the average daily extent rate for the month of July. 2011's average daily extent rate for July is currently -115,859 square kilometers. This is a lot higher than the July average daily extent rate in other years, but 2007 and 2009 had rates of -122,149 square km and -107,480 square km respectively in the first 8 days of July.
Sea ice area (SIA)
Extent has been dropping faster than area, for the simple reason that the anticyclonic flow caused by the high-pressure area compacts the ice pack, filling up the holes that are counted for SIA. This means that the anomaly on the Cryosphere Today SIA anomaly graph is still hovering around the -1.5 million square km mark, although it has been going down again rather fast in the past couple of days:
When it comes to regional SIA, I can be very short: SIA is going down practically everywhere. Amazingly, Hudson Bay still contains about 200K of ice, so we can expect an extended contribution to SIE and SIA decrease for another couple of days. Despite the sea ice pack being pushed towards Siberia, the SIA in both the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea has been going down hard. The Kara Sea has almost hit rock bottom, which is very early in the melting season.
On a side note: One rather interesting development is the global sea ice area anomaly. Because sea ice area in the Antarctic is extremely low for this time of year, the combined SIA anomaly has surpassed the - 2 million square mark and is getting awfully close to 2007's record of - 2.44 million square km.
I guess that's one thing less for certain people to point to. ;-)
Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)
Despite SIE going down harder than SIA in the past week, the CAPIE trend line is still in the middle of the pack. Of course, compaction is pushing the percentage up, but this is certainly compensated by all those melt ponds forming right now all over the heavily insolated ice pack. These melt ponds are counted as open water in sea ice area measurements, which is one reason why most people prefer sea ice extent. For more info on that read last year's blog post that spawned this blog's CAPIE graph:
Sea Level Pressure
And so we have arrived to the indispensable part of SIE updates. We had some great news coming in this week with PIPS coming back online. So I'll start out with an animation of PIPS images of the past 14 days to show what the effect of that big high-pressure area over the Arctic Basin has been:
And here's an animation with SLP images from the DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice that shows how things have been developing since the start of July:
We can clearly see how that high formed, developed further and moved towards the middle of the Arctic Basin. Of course, the AO Index has turned pretty negative because of it and is projected to stay negative for a while longer. This is also reflected in the ECMWF weather forecast maps for the coming 5 days:
It seems the high will become a tad less intense and move over the Beaufort Sea, with a low-pressure area forming over the Siberian coast. It will be interesting to see what the effect will be. Perhaps an increase in ice transport towards Fram Strait and the recently opened Nares Strait.
For more info on how this year compares SLP-wise to other years in the period 2005-2010 I recommend this other blog post I put up today.
Update conclusion
As they say in Holland: this story is getting a tail. I think we will be seeing some more days of high extent decrease, century breaks even. Things are going to shift a bit too, so it will be interesting to see what happens exactly. All in all I expect 2011 to still be leading when I write SIE update 12 next week.
So far we have seen mega-melt.
---
TIPS - Other blog posts and news articles concerning the Arctic and its ice:
Joe Romm has a good June summary up on ClimateProgress.
The same goes for Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, who believes "that we will come very close to breaking the 2007 record for all-time ice loss in September, but fall just short".
Minor, the global SIA low record is I think to see @ -2,475 million km^2 is Aug 16. Interesting also is this low global is 1-3 months ahead of anything equivalent in the years 2007-2010... cycle shift as Tamino observed. Posted a link to this chart before from me own kitchen... the Omen.
--//--
PS: Still having a very hard time to get the preview or post buttons to activate... way to many 3rd party links on this blog system that want to leech. NoSccript counts 12 incl. the typepad site.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 09, 2011 at 19:25
..so it will be interesting to see what happens exactly.
If we see someting. The latest picture from webcam 1 is different from the one before.
Posted by: Hans Kiesewetter | July 09, 2011 at 19:50
Seke Rob, I'm sorry, there is nothing I can change about the way comments are made. That's all TypePad's work.
Wow, Hans, it looks like the camera made a swing to the right. And look at those clear skies!
Posted by: Neven | July 09, 2011 at 19:56
Its right about this time when every other year since 2007 has faded back a little.
Claims for a rebound in extent are going to wear a little thin if this carries on,
Posted by: dorlomin | July 09, 2011 at 20:01
If you look closely at the satellite image for July 8 you will see a lonely polar bear on an ice floe near the north pole holding a small sign that says "HELP PLEASE".
Posted by: ThE SnYpEr AzZ | July 09, 2011 at 21:22
A top-notch update! We seem to definitely be headed for sub-4.5 million sq. km. territory. The Kara sea ice negative anomaly is absolutely unreal right now, with around 400,000 km less ice than normal just for this basin, and so there's lot of solar SW being absorbed in all that open water in that region, and hence the SST's in that area are way above average. This will make a big difference in the late season melt as it will be this warm water circulating around the arctic rather than solar insolation that keeps the melt going in September.
The interesting thing you point out is the global sea ice anomaly now approaching the record set in 2007. I look for it to edge this record out by a tad in the next few days.
Posted by: R. Gates | July 09, 2011 at 23:58
Count me as one of the skeptics as to whether we will set a new global SIA anomaly record "in the next few days". The previous record seems to have been set in mid-August of 2007, and coincided with a similar downturn in Antarctic anomaly. That might be the point at which such a new record might be set, given the rate of melt right now in the Arctic. If so, it would require that very little additional freezing go on in the Antarctic (the climb in Antarctic average area is slowing, and will reach a maximum in early Sept). Although the halt in Antarctic ice freezing over the last month has been surprising, the resulting anomaly is still not out of the ordinary; and there's a reasonable chance it will start shrinking again, as freezing may only be delayed.
Counterintuitively, I would bet on a record being set towards the end of August, because I think that the Arctic anomaly will beat 2007 by continuing downward then, like 2010, rather than leveling off, like 2007. In that case, the Arctic anomaly would move downward to less than minus 2.
Just some thoughts ... - w
Posted by: Wayne Kernochan | July 10, 2011 at 01:48
PIOMAS has just released an updated version of their "seasonal outlook" showing this year ending up just a hair above 2007, but ending on June 30, and assuming "average" conditions from July 1 onward. If the next week or two is sunny over almost the entire Arctic Ocean, and we get the right wind patterns later on (e.g. in late July or in August), I guess we might beat 2007, but in any case I think it will be a close call.
Posted by: none | July 10, 2011 at 01:56
Preliminary IJIS SIE Jul 09, 2011:
8,090,156 km^2
Daily change in SIE:
-130,938 km^2
SERIOUSLY.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 10, 2011 at 05:07
Like many others my Excel Workbook has been busy; today's preliminary change in SIE finally drove my 2011 minimum below that of 2007. I now have a projected SIE of 4,243,554 km^2 on September 17, 2011
Nothing sophisticated, I've simply been taking the average loss per day from 2007-2010 and subtracting it from this year's IJIS values.
The next 15 days may actually determine whether 2011 can surpass 2007; From July 10, 2007 through the 24th average SIE declined more than 100,000 km^2 per day. That's 23,000 more than the 2005-2010 average (excluding 2007).
The other thing I'll be interested to see is the actual length of the melt season. 2007 didn't reach minimum until the 24th of September. My simple averaging reaches minimum a full week earlier, but looking at the trends in minimums over the last 10 years I'd actually expect the 2011 minimum to occur the last week of September and I'm hoping for the 27th cuz it would make a really interesting graph:)
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 10, 2011 at 06:44
2011 has some serious attitude, unlike 2010.
Another hard left jab to 2007's face.
But it's just the second round, and 2007 has been champ for years. This will be a long fight, so it's not yet clear if 2011 can go the distance.
Still, there's been a new champ roughly every 4 or 5 years (or less) since 1979, so 2007 might be retiring this summer. The Arctic summer championship is a brutal contest that takes its toll on older years...
Posted by: Anu | July 10, 2011 at 07:14
Well, Anu, 2007 is going to try to land a few punches back with a 4-day series of century breaks, starting tomorrow.
But for now, 2011's average daily extent decrease (before today's revision) in the first 9 days of July is -117,535 square km. 2007 had -118,125 in the first 9 days.
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 12:46
And global SIA anomaly is now -2.1390467 (from -2.0173171).
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 13:06
PIPS for tomorrow:
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 13:08
The NH anomaly normaly reaches its maximum in around October November as the melting starts late and begins slower than it used too.
Posted by: dorlomin | July 10, 2011 at 13:14
It looks like the pond by Webcam #2 at the pole is slowly draining. The pond is smaller than it was yesterday.
The only question, is did it make a stream to the edge of the pan or has it eaten a hole in the pan, and the level has reached equilibrium.
Webcam #1 has lost its balance, and is now show a snails view of the ice.
Next year they should try pontoons :)
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 10, 2011 at 14:25
It would help, if I post the pictures.
Pond Cam
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2011/images/noaa2-2011-0710-091939.jpg
Snail Cam
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2011/images/noaa1-2011-0709-181210.jpg
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 10, 2011 at 14:28
At the risk of lowering the quality of posts on the site, I think there is a chance the Greenland will be circumnavigible this year. Maybe only by speedboat but it looks to me like most of the shore line will open up except for a big chunk on the North shore of Greenland. But if the shore line is open everywhere else it means the artic ice is a loose cannon except that North shore chunk. If the winds are right, I can imagine the ice cracking, moving off shore and creating a navagitible opening.
Posted by: fred | July 10, 2011 at 17:08
Fred, one of my first blog posts was about that!
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 17:10
Maximum temperature at Russian NP38 station (82°N) today: +2,4°C
Posted by: HenkL | July 10, 2011 at 18:47
Henk, what's 'normal' for this station around this time?
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 19:09
Webcam # 1 is now, almost at ground (sorry ice) level, maybe someone can follow the bugs up there?
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg
Espen
Posted by: Espen | July 10, 2011 at 19:23
A sign of the times: It looks like Resolute, Nunavut (75°N) set an all-time temperature record on Saturday with 18.7C:
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?StationID=1776&Month=7&Day=9&Year=2011&timeframe=2
According to Wikipedia's climate entry for Resolute, that beats the old record of 18.3C set in July 1962.
Greatly enjoying this discussion. Thanks for the frequent updates, Neven!
Posted by: Bob Henson | July 10, 2011 at 19:45
Thanks Bob
I must be a hell being a polar bear up there!
Posted by: Espen | July 10, 2011 at 19:53
Neven, the Russian station NP38 doesn't have a 'normal' temperature, because it is setup almost every year in a different place. And then it drifts wherever the ice beneath them is drifting.
Last year the station (NP37 then) was already abandoned in the first week of June.
Posted by: HenkL | July 10, 2011 at 21:03
Thanks, ome Henk (I have a real 'ome Henk' BTW). ;-)
I vaguely remember reading something about this. I found something here:
Posted by: Neven | July 10, 2011 at 21:09
Looking at the MODIS mosaic today, it's a beautiful view of almost the whole central pack. Hardly a lead in sight. This is what I meant by the pack seeming more solid than last year or 2007.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2011191.terra.1km
Posted by: Nick Barnes | July 11, 2011 at 00:19
>"Hardly a lead in sight."
Yes I see that, but I just have a bit of niggling doubt that much of it looks like:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c05.2011167.terra
and how much of that remains 24 days later?
That is probably just me being ridiculously alarmist. Or do others see similarity?
Posted by: crandles | July 11, 2011 at 01:09
Nick, I agree with the 'seeming more solid than last year' part. But how do you compare to 2007? I mean, the satellite images from the rapidfire archive aren't really clear enough IMO to see leads or a spread out ice pack clearly. I would think 2007 also had a seemingly solid pack because of compaction of the ice pack.
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 01:13
As long as the quality of posts has already been lowered, let me ask an apparently dumb question. How can it be that the average decline for the first 9 days of July was greater in 2007 than 2011, and yet the graph provided by the same outfit clearly shows 2011 dropping faster than 2007 in the first 9 days of July? There appears to be an inconsistency here.
Molnar
Posted by: www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawlY98HxxNMXKTTzzXmzHFSacuYp6WnxKNE | July 11, 2011 at 01:27
Molnar, I believe NSIDC uses a 5-day moving average. If you plot the data in that fashion 2011 does appear to be dropping faster than 2007. Over the next few days it will likely reverse - unless 2011 can pile up a bunch of century marks.
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 11, 2011 at 01:58
Molnar, the average decline is practically the same for both years, but 2011 started with less at the start of the month. 2007 then caught up -> the trend lines converge a bit. But in the past couple of days 2011 had much larger daily extent decreases than 2007 (approximately 150K) -> the trend lines diverge a bit.
And then there's the 2-day (I believe) averaging they do for IJIS data, which means the end point of this year's trend line can become less pronounced.
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 02:14
Kevin, I think you're right about NSIDC, but I thought I was comparing IJIS numbers to the IJIS graph. Double-checking Neven's calculation using IJIS numbers, I get roughly his numbers (-117014, probably revised, for 2011 and -118125 for 2007), but the IJIS graph does not appear to match: 2011 is pulling away from 2007 in July. A minor point, but it is a bit puzzling.
Posted by: www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawlY98HxxNMXKTTzzXmzHFSacuYp6WnxKNE | July 11, 2011 at 02:27
Molnar, 2011 *is* pulling away from 2007:
Day . 2007 .. 2011 .. Difference
7/6 8611094 8484844 -126250
7/7 8529844 8367188 -162656
7/8 8455000 8221094 -233906
7/9 8369063 8094844 -274219
The first five days of the month saw 2007 close the gap, the last 4 have seen 2011 widen it back to almost the original margin. If you examine both the NSIDC and IJIS graphs closely you can see this; they almost converge, then separate again.
The vertical distance separating the two years was essentially the same on the 1st as it is now.
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 11, 2011 at 05:36
Below 8,000,000 sq km in record time (7,995,156 - July 10)
2011 has come to fight.
Posted by: Anu | July 11, 2011 at 05:51
The million marks are completely arbitrary milestones, but they're easy to keep track of ... if you graph the dates they've been broken since 2002 you get some pretty remarkable trendlines. Here are the slopes:
8 million km^2 = 1.52 (before today's #)
7 million km^2 = 1.37
6 million km^2 = 1.78
In other words, we can expect the 8 million mark to be broken 1.52 days earlier each year. That's more than two full weeks earlier per decade. 2002 broke 8 million on July 27th. So breaking 8 million today was 2 days below trend.
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 11, 2011 at 07:22
Neven, that's my recollection based on looking at the orbit swath images at the time. Looking at them now, there's a lot of cloud:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2007192190000-2007192190500.1km.jpg
but I expect a bit of poking around could find a clearer one.
Posted by: Nick Barnes | July 11, 2011 at 08:15
Nick Barnes, you’re spoiling my alarmist excitement. Though I doubt it will generate pro-active interest, a new record on the path to a seasonally, almost ice free Arctic will affirm overwhelming scientific evidence on AGW. That’s what I wholeheartedly want to see. If you’re right, Nick, in assuming the pack is still ‘ thick enough’, we’ll just have to wait some more time. So I can have patience and try to find out together with you what’s going on.
I tried to focus in on MODIS using my CAD. Maybe I lose some resolution, because I copy to JPEG (producing images around 4MB). Objects smaller than 400 meters fade. But I can still make out leads filled with rubble some 1 km wide, 500 km north of Ellesmere. There are myriads of specles, small polynia’s, melt puddles, all small. FI the one on webcam two, 100-200 m wide, doesn’t clearly show up on MODIS, too.
Up to day 160 the cracks showed up much more clearly. It could be the angle of the sunlight, albedo, or maybe an evaporation haze, that’s blurring the resolution. But as Neven says, compaction is playing a role, too. From what I looked at today, the mesh-metal pattern is visible. That is an indication that the pack is hardly homogenous, certainly not solid. The polar high is doing a ‘round-up’?
Posted by: Werther | July 11, 2011 at 09:20
As others have noted, 2011 is increasing its lead over 2007 for the moment. I note that there is still very nearly 200,000 km2 of ice in Hudson's Bay, but possibly more important is that the anomaly for the East Greenland sea is positive. To me, that indicates robust transport through Fram Straight. So a drift/melt-back from the Siberian side like 2007 is certainly possible, and a significant fraction of that volume could be lost through the Fram rather than kept in the basin. The weather's unlikely to be as extreme as 2007, but the pack is thinner and more mobile.
Posted by: Greg Wellman | July 11, 2011 at 09:37
Werther, maybe I should clarify my position. I think that arctic sea-ice loss is the canary in our coal mine: it provides simple, unambiguous, and highly mediagenic evidence of climate disruption, and over the next couple of decades it will do so with increasing drama and, I hope, increasing political effect. Basically, future ice-free Septembers will provoke our collective governments into actually doing something to address the crisis. In this way, arctic amplification might save civilisation.
However, I don't see it this year. It's just a gut feeling: I could easily be wrong - the Beaufort Sea is already looking like a beer cooler.
Posted by: Nick Barnes | July 11, 2011 at 10:43
While I agree that the arctic sea ice loss is the little yellow bird that suggests that the shite is going to hit the fan, I'm not convinced that it will "provoke our collective governments into actually doing something to address the crisis". They will talk and sign various agreements, and maybe set some non-binding targets - but ultimately it will be business as usual (with maybe a slight greenish tint).
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 11, 2011 at 11:18
How come the Foxe Basin, northern part of Hudson bay, is so stubborn when it comes to melting compared to rest of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago?
Posted by: Espen | July 11, 2011 at 11:18
I wonder if today's reported IJIS melt decrease for the 10th of -99,688 square km will be revised slightly downwards (which happened for the first time a few fays back), which should turn it into a century break. If it's revised upwards, it might just go back over the 8 million mark again. But revisions have been very small in the past couple of days.
Global SIA anomaly has gone down some more: -2.2040076 million square km.
ECMWF is showing a lot of shifting of highs and lows in about 5 days. We'll see how that develops, but it's no longer a forecast that only shows a big H over the Beaufort Sea/Central Arctic for all coming 10 days.
Of course PIPS is still forecasting clockwise pointing arrows for tomorrow:
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 12:35
If we can maintain last weeks weather for another week. I believe that 2011 will beat 2007 in the end, as it will have much less work to do, to melt the thinner ice.
On another note, major cracks are appearing in the remaining section of the NWP. We should see a major fracturing event , that may fracture the remaining portion of the NWP.
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2011191.terra.250m
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 11, 2011 at 12:51
That reminds me, I have to update the NWP animation.
You're right, Lord Soth, and I noticed those cracks over a week ago. It's fractured all over the place and only the strong wind from the East (caused by the big H over the Central Arctic) is keeping it together.
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 12:55
Updated NWP animation is up.
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 13:04
"I'm not convinced that it will "provoke our collective governments into actually doing something to address the crisis". They will talk and sign various agreements, and maybe set some non-binding targets - but ultimately it will be business as usual (with maybe a slight greenish tint)."
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
If only we could take one of todays leading climate scientists and time travel them back to the past to warn them. Imagine for example if we could send Dr Hansen back to 1988 where he could warn congress about the coming danger and we would act so much sooner.......
Posted by: dorlomin | July 11, 2011 at 14:05
The sea ice disappearing, causing some weird weather, making the taken for granted exploitation of Arctic resources even more difficult than it is now, should do the trick.
I think it's inevitable we'll have some very weird weather (on the entire NH), massive coastal erosion, permafrost thawing, etc.
Barring some black swans, I think the Arctic will be crucial in the whole AGW debate. That's why we're all here, and now.
---
PS global SIA anomaly: -2.2462852 million square km
Posted by: Neven | July 11, 2011 at 14:10
Maximum temperature at Russian NP38 station (82°N) today: +3,4°C
Posted by: HenkL | July 11, 2011 at 15:01
Dolormin said
"If only we could take one of todays leading climate scientists and time travel them back to the past to warn them. Imagine for example if we could send Dr Hansen back to 1988 where he could warn congress about the coming danger and we would act so much sooner......."
I hate to burst your bubble, but we've known about global warming longer than that:
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timeline.htm
Not only that, but people are continuing to debate things far more settled (at least in my mind) than climate change, such as leaded gasoline, the use of asbestos, DDT, CFCs and the ozone layer, second-hand tobacco exposure, and mercury in fish:
http://kestencgreen.com/green&armstrong-agw-analogies.pdf
(And if you really want to feel bad about our chances of affecting Climate Change, read "Toxic Sludge is Good for You: Lies, Damn Lies, and the Public Relations Industry." I recommend this book highly, despite it's being rather depressing.)
Posted by: Bfraser | July 11, 2011 at 16:27
And here the days plotted since 1979 when first passing the 8M mark [JAXA did stay below at 4PM CET update]
ArcticSIEDaysbelow8million.png
Does the NSIDC or NOAA have a SIE daily value publication? Can't seem to find anything beyond 12.31.07
TIA
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 11, 2011 at 16:52
@Bfraser I am amazed how poor is the understanding of the science from those guys. The beginning of the paper looked good then intellectual bias exploded in my face.
Posted by: Yvan Dutil | July 11, 2011 at 17:07
Bill
I'm going to pass on 'Lies,Damn Lies, and the public Relations Industry' your link to Green/Armstrong's pdf was depressing enough.
Watching the arctic melt is like watching a slow motion train wreck, but we are all on that train.
Posted by: Twemoran | July 11, 2011 at 17:39
Thaks Seke Rob. That data of Below 8 million date is a real eye opener.
Only 10 years ago, we had to wait until August to get under 8 Million Extent, and in 1996 we had to wait until August 20.
Well we just missed a century break at 98.8 k sq km, but don't worry Neven, im sure you will get plenty more.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 11, 2011 at 18:14
Bill: I think Dolormin's comments were meant to be tongue-in-cheek. James Hansen DID warn Congress in 1988:
http://climateaudit.org/2008/01/24/hansen-1988-details-of-forcing-projections/
The point being, is that Hansen also warned the PR armies of the Fossils, which mobilized for battle. As of Cancun, the Nations of the World have tacitly agreed not to address Climate Change in a serious way before 2020.
Remember, the Fossils are looking for a path to PROFIT from this disaster. Drastic action costs much more than organized, timely action.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 11, 2011 at 21:58
James Hansen did warn congress in 1988, but U.S. politicians knew two decades earlier that fossil fuels were going to impact the climate. In 1965 the President’s Science Advisory Committee issued a report on the environment. Though its main focus was pollution, the committee also addressed climate change.
Peterson et al mention this in their paper THE MYTH OF THE 1970S GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
They summarize the PSAC report by writing:
The paper, as you may have guessed from the title, is a direct response to the denier belief that climate scientists were more worried about global cooling than global warming back in the 1970's.
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 11, 2011 at 23:09
Yvan Dutil wrote:
"I am amazed how poor is the understanding of the science from those guys."
which reminds me of the Upton Sinclair Quote:
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it."
Posted by: Bfraser | July 11, 2011 at 23:25
Lodger wrote:
"I think Dolormin's comments were meant to be tongue-in-cheek. James Hansen DID warn Congress in 1988:"
Ack! Touche! I've been had!
There was something tickling at the back of my mind, but I think it was more the over-specificity of the year 1988 than it was the fact that Dr. Hansen has been trying to get people to listen to him for so long.
Posted by: Bfraser | July 11, 2011 at 23:32
A really cool feature is emerging in the NOAA2 images :
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2011/images/noaa2-2011-0711-092240.jpg
It's a little 'table' floating in the open ocean between the ice floes. This piece if ice broken off a few days ago, and already now starts to erode fast at the surface line. It will be cool to see when it falls over.
To me, the table shape suggests that top foot or so of surface water between ice floes is considerably warmer than water at the bottom of the ice pack.
Apparently heat from the sun on water between ice floes is used for melting ice right at the surface and not deeper.
Also, it shows indirectly quite nicely the albedo difference between open water and ice/snow.
Posted by: Rob Dekker | July 11, 2011 at 23:34
While we watch the Arctic melting, Antarctic refuses to freeze:
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
Posted by: Yvan Dutil | July 12, 2011 at 03:39
and the Hits keep on coming...
IJIS preliminary SIE Jul 11, 2011:
7,895,000 km^2
Daily Change in SIE:
-100,938 km^2
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 12, 2011 at 05:12
Yes, another "century" left jab to 2007's face.
But they are pretty evenly matched - 2007 is still dancing around the ring and doesn't seem that tired yet...
Posted by: Anu | July 12, 2011 at 05:19
The Chukchi Sea has slightly less ice extent than in the last five years, the Kara Sea is way down (for these five years), the Laptev Sea has taken a dive down recently, but most interesting is the recent dip in the Central Arctic region.
The Beaufort Sea is surprisingly high for 2011.
Posted by: Anu | July 12, 2011 at 05:47
Holy cow, how did you get a hold of these graphs? Did I miss something on the MASIE homepage? Hold on, I see it now. Click 'FTP site' and then 'plots'. Amazing. Should I add these to the daily graphs page? Isn't it getting too full? Or can it never be full enough?
BTW, how do people here like the MASIE product? DO they check it out a lot? I've been having a look since Lodger prompted me to, but find that extent figures jump around a lot. For instance last week or so, total extent was going up, while IJIS extent was going down steadily. And then, all of a sudden, boom, MASIE extent drops by almost 400K. Don't know what to make of that.
But those graphs look awesome.
Posted by: Neven | July 12, 2011 at 06:10
So then, what are the prospects for a new record low SIE?
2007 averaged -95,771 km^2 SIE per day over the 15-day period July 12-26. Meanwhile, over the last 15 days, 2011 has averaged -98,479 / day.
Of course, 2011 does have that -230K lead, which is the equivalent of -15.3 km/day over 15 days.
Anu: I wouldn't worry about the low extent for Beaufort Sea 2008. Currently, 2011 has a -1,022,969 km^2 lead over 2008 for the Arctic as a whole...
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 12, 2011 at 06:17
Anu; it looks to me that the Beaufort is getting fed with thick ice from the north of the Canadian archipelago. This is clearly seen in this ice thickness time series. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif This may be the reason for slow melt in the Beaufort area.
Posted by: r w Langford | July 12, 2011 at 06:38
If people are interested in seeing cloud formations and movement over the arctic here is a display. It is not as smooth as it could be but does show weather patterns especially if you slow the frames down.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=hrpt_dfo_nir_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1 I suggest setting it to 48 hours then slow the speed to a desired setting and play it.
Posted by: r w Langford | July 12, 2011 at 06:56
Dolormin, your time travel joke naturally made me think of this
from
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/tomtoles/2010/06/take_your_time.html
Posted by: Greg Wellman | July 12, 2011 at 07:24
Ah, the MASIE site... followed the ftp tip-off and came to ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/masie_extent_sqkm.csv where all the daily data is presented for the different regions. That's a good sub. Given that NOAA/NSIDC uses a 5 (?) day average, maybe need to work their numbers a bit to get the same smoothness in the plots presented e.g. here http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/index.html . JAXA is 2 days avg as most all will know.
More reading to do :D
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2011 at 08:08
Neven, I'd recommend against placing any graphics on the ASI Graphs page that are accessed through the FTP protocol, such as the MASIE graphs. FTP is much slower and has more overhead than normal HTTP hosted graphs.
In fact, I recommend changing the FTP link to the Barrow Webcam back to the HTTP link.
Cheers!
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 12, 2011 at 08:10
Rob Dekker wrote:
"A really cool feature is emerging in the NOAA2 [North Pole webcam] images..."
Looks more like a mushroom to me ;)
This intrigued me a lot so I looked at the archive to see where it came from. Here's an animation I've made for the last week:
http://i1184.photobucket.com/albums/z327/a_yeeles/North-Pole-webcam-7-12-July-2011.gif
What's interesting is how quickly the small berg that became the mushroom moved into frame, and how mobile the ice is. Note for example the movement of the small peak top left of the images.
As Rob says, it's clear how much melting there is from the melt water - but is the mushroom rising or the water level falling?
Posted by: a_yeeles | July 12, 2011 at 09:22
Nice animation, a_yeeles!
Posted by: Neven | July 12, 2011 at 09:24
Seeing the webcam animation series and watching the marker on right it's as if the polynia closed up locking in the "one legged table" whilst the piece on which the webcam is positioned is shrinking/crumbling. Will the webcam survive the melt all through summer? Reading on the N-37 Russian outpost evacuation and difficulty of finding a good spot for N-38... things sense to be in a more dire state than ever before. Alfred Wegener findings of 140Cm mean FYI thickness in Beaufort is telling. Watching CT, expecting global SIA to drop further.
BTW the comment on the MYI sitting in the Beaufort, Wayne Davidson discussed a Modis image in March of to him obvious FYI sitting against Ellesmere and not the normal MYI. It's now one big ice mixer out there it seems, nothing stationary left.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2011 at 10:17
Reading the posts, it seems like everyone is from everywhere, as to be expected I guess, a great big melting pot.
Anyway, has anyone done a shoreline of ice v melt rate comparison? To me aaba, (as a bloody amateur), it seems that in the last week a lot of shoreline opened up in the last week and that this would increase the 'surface' area (i.e. frontage) that is available to melt.
Posted by: fred | July 12, 2011 at 11:02
Those who like to take stab, what date does the Arctic hit the first day < 7 Million KM Square per JAXA? The < 7M Historic Days Chart, with missing data points where the years did not even have minimum that went this low. (Nothing convoluted like the lowest mean of any 7 sliding data point period.)
For ref. The < 8M day Historic Chart. 2011 was here 3 days earlier than 2007.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 12, 2011 at 14:11
I'll take a stab. Under 7 million on 22 July.
Method: eyeballed the last couple of weeks, then made a WAG.
Posted by: Notonlythatbut.wordpress.com | July 12, 2011 at 17:50
Cryosphere Today SIA is going down slow. The anomaly has gone up again quite a bit, to -1.44 million square km. This is essentially going to prevent global SIA anomaly to reach a new record low, I think, even if the Antarctic SIA anomaly is still dropping (right now at almost -0.8 million square km).
PIPS is showing smaller, less decisive arrows for tomorrow:
That high ain't so high no more...
Posted by: Neven | July 12, 2011 at 18:03
Someone ought to mention that a certain excellent commenter goes by "dorlomin". Hansen's 1988 testimony is rather well known thanks to this.
The AO page hasn't been updated for a few days but the PIPS graph posted by Neven indicates it will be less negative tomorrow. How low will the ice go? The answer is blowing in the wind until it gets thin enough to melt in place.
Posted by: Pete Dunkelberg | July 12, 2011 at 19:46
The section of ice outward from the right marker broke off, and now the right marker is closer to the edge.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2011/images/noaa2-2011-0712-092539.jpg
If we are getting this much action with a high pressure and dead calm; things are going to get very interesting once a storm eventually rolls in.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 12, 2011 at 22:19
Lord Soth wrote:
"The section of ice outward from the right marker broke off..."
Here's the updated North Pole webcam 2 animation showing this (apologies for the tilt - blame mother nature for that ;)
http://i1184.photobucket.com/albums/z327/a_yeeles/North-Pole-webcam-4-12-July-2011-1.gif
Posted by: a_yeeles | July 12, 2011 at 23:04
Another small calving on the Humboldt Glacier – bulge, comparing MODIS 190 – 193 more than 3 km² missing.
Posted by: Werther | July 12, 2011 at 23:29
Webcam #2 does give us a pretty good idea of how much melt has occurred - or it would if I knew one tiny detail. What are the dimensions of the alternating sections on the survey markers.
Comparing the June 11 images to the July 11 images it appears about 5 sections have been revealed on the survey marker standing center left between the two melt ponds. In the June photo all that can be seen is the topmost black section; in the July photo 3 black and 3 white sections can be seen. Here's a cropped and enlarged comparison of the two dates.
http://s256.photobucket.com/albums/hh197/ktonine/
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 12, 2011 at 23:49
Kevin: standard stadia rod graduations are 10 cm each.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadia_mark
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 13, 2011 at 00:24
Werther, It took me a minute of squinting, but I see it, you're definitely right. One has to wonder how much longer that whole bulge will last. It would only be a fraction of the size of the Peterman event last year, but it would still be major.
Posted by: Greg Wellman | July 13, 2011 at 00:33
The vast majority of the melt "depth" on webcam #2 as measured by the rods will be snow overlying the ice.
Posted by: Peter Ellis | July 13, 2011 at 00:45
'Another small calving on the Humboldt Glacier – bulge'
'One has to wonder how much longer that whole bulge will last.'
If the 'bulge' is bedded on rock it may be there for a long time. If however it's floating or resting on glacial till where water can get to the base, it's toast.
BTW Werther - your usual area of study, off the northern coast of Greenland, seems to be defecting to Siberia ;)
Posted by: Twemoran | July 13, 2011 at 04:26
Let's see how long it takes 2011 to reach this level of breakup in the pack North of Greenland:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2010258.terra.367.1km&vectors=coast%2Bborders
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 13, 2011 at 05:14
Not to go totally off topic, but does anyone else think the "new" CT color scheme is wack?
Unlike 2007, it's really hard to tell now if an area is in total meltdown as opposed to just having a bad day.
While I'm lowering the tone, I am in the last of the Kubler-Ross stages when it comes to inaction about carbon emissions. We're not going to do squat, and that's how it is.
Posted by: Rlkittiwake | July 13, 2011 at 07:45
No IJIS number yet today....
Posted by: Nick Barnes | July 13, 2011 at 12:25
a_yeeles : Thanks a lot for the animation of the "mushroom" "table". For one, it suggests that it is not a separate chunck of ice, but is actually connected under water to a larger chunck moving in from the right. To your question "is the mushroom rising", 7/10th of the ice is under water, thus while the mushroom melts, it will be pushed upward quite strongly.
So it will be rising out of the water, at least as long as the top melts faster than the ice underneith.
And considering that the air temperatures around webcam 2 now reached 5 C, it may be melting quite fast.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/
I'd just like to point out that it is quite extraordinary that we are witnessing such a feature move into the field of view of a North Pole webcam. This is quite a melting season !
Posted by: Rob Dekker | July 13, 2011 at 12:26
First AO is down for 5 days, and now IIJS is down. However NSIDC and other graphs are showing steady decline however.
DMI 30% extent took another steep dive last night.
The AO looks a little weaker visually, but the DA is probably a bit stronger.
Its roasting at the North Pole with Web Cam #2 showing a temp of 5.6 C (thats the NPEO outside temperture, not the internal camera temperture sensor).
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/POPS12_atmos_recent.html
Cryosphere smaller area declines are probably due to ponds on the ice draining to normal freeboard. Web Cam #2 at the pole shows a good example of this over the past week.
There is still 300K of slush in Hudson Bay, which may have already been taken in account for area but not extent. This will probably be mostly gone in a week or so.
I say it still status quo, with around 100K melt a day.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 13, 2011 at 12:30
Day 202 for 7,000,000 mark:
Large volumes are being exported through Fram
The CA about to break open
Warm Pacific water is streaming north
Beaufort Gyre spinning and clear skies with a positive AO
Small ice cubes melt faster in my glass than big cubes ;)
Posted by: Twemoran | July 13, 2011 at 17:11
Uni Bremen shows 2011 widening the gap, now more than 450k.
Posted by: L. Hamilton | July 13, 2011 at 18:00
Rlkittiwake, I fear you are right about inaction on carbon emissions. Here in the U.S. action only comes (if the stars align) after a few disasters in which there's a "smoking gun" that points to a cause. Even then action is slow...
The mega heat wave this summer, the flooding in the northern plains and the heavy snows of last winter have no effect unless they could be conclusively linked to climate change and CO2 emissions. But this year, even if the evidence was solid or if all of Greenland melted, the government is too pre-occupied with other things to do anything.
Posted by: Noel Ward | July 13, 2011 at 18:01
The AO graph has been updated, but it is out of whack.
Last entry on the 9th with an AO of -2.1, missing data, and them two positive AO values, just two days latter.
The arctic does not lot positive AO to me.
Check daily graphs for AO but it will probably be fixed, by the time the next person sees it.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 13, 2011 at 18:04
Within 10 days or so there will be no sea ice left north of 75th parallel north, that I suppose will be a record too, or am I wrong? And then after we will count 76, 77 ...., more easy than centuries by the way :)
Espen
Posted by: Espen | July 13, 2011 at 18:41
Espen, you probably meant to write ''south of the 75th parallel, north''. Recently stumbled on a comment ''south of the 90th north'' and wondered if there was any other direction from there ;>)
--//--
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 13, 2011 at 22:02
Seke Rob asks:
Ummm ... up or down?
Has anyone tried locating the webcam #2 location on MODIS? Just wondering if this is a very localized melt or indicative of the region as a whole ... I'm not sure if those melt ponds are even large enough to show up ...
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | July 13, 2011 at 22:12
Reminds me of the old wheeze: a hunter followed bear tracks 100m directly south, then turned left 90 degrees to follow them another 100m. A final leg of 100m directly north returned him to his starting point, where he was finally able to fire at his quarry.
Question: what colour was the bear?
Answer: White, since the topology described only applies at the north pole.
Somewhat implausible, of course, but hey. . .
Posted by: Kevin McKinney | July 13, 2011 at 22:17
I've been a bit slow with providing new content. Too busy, no inspiration, too lazy/dumb to read scientific papers. I'll focus on SIE updates for the time being, until my Arctic muse returns.
I did update the New Siberian Islands animation yesterday.
Posted by: Neven | July 13, 2011 at 22:18