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Seke Rob

Kevin O'Neill | July 13, 2011 at 22:12

I tend to follow the Cryosphere Today front picture, the colored one, not the comparative down below of much lower detail. It's been red-yellow all around the black hole, so suspect it's bigger. The drift map shows it currently near 88N, general direction Greenland.


Kevin McKinney
The bear story and topology, drew the track in my mind and at 90 degree turns do not see it ending back exactly at 90N, but with the last leg crux, of 100 meters ''directly'' north, think somehow he'd end up a little short... a few ice bear lengths off 90N :D

Nick Barnes

Kevin, the topology also applies to a ring of points close to the south pole, but there are no bears there.
For that matter, there are no bears at the north pole, but too many facts spoil any riddle.

Patrice Pustavrh

@Kevin McKinney: In near future, the correct answer will be: It was not a bear at all, it was whale.
Jokes off, but while tracking Arctic Roos and CT, DMI and Univ. Bremen graphs (IJIS was off), the odd man for today was CT with decreasing anomaly. I've been thinking for the time being (two days ago) that we came to some halt, but I was wrong for sure. I guess these discrepancies are due to different signal processing and I am sure melt has not stalled like in 2010.
On the other hand I would wait till first 10 days in august to see in how bad state ice is (in term of extent and/or area).
And I would state it clearly, even if somebody won't like it, but: Even if we'd get Arctic summer ice free in 2100, that is really, really bad. More, than average denier would imagine. And it looks that it is worse. Much worse. Even if it is by 2040, it is much much worse. If it is (and at least to PIOMAS projections) within this decade, than we may suffer severe changes in weather patterns. But, who am I to talk about. We have many really good scientists out there, and they are working their job fair, and I'd say, even conservatively when they are unsure. The correct position in my point.
And for the final, a little joke:
Q: Which is worse: Cancer or Economist ?
A: Economist. Cancer is satisfied with steady state growth, Economist wants even more.

Patrice Pustavrh

A little bit of edit:
The correct position in my point. should be read as The correct position in my point of view.

Patrice Pustavrh

@Nick, topology is similar, but you cannot go south of south pole ;). Anyway, regarding the bears at NP I do trust you. But, it was just a little joke anyway.

Seke Rob

Repost of something that seems to have gone down the black hole [and recouped from that fantastic OpenText Area Cache addon to Firefox]:

Kevin O'Neill | July 13, 2011 at 22:12

I tend to follow the Cryosphere Today front picture, the colored one, not the comparative down below of much lower detail. It's been red-yellow all around the black hole, so suspect it's bigger. The drift map shows it currently near 88N, general direction Greenland.


Kevin McKinney
The bear story and topology, drew the track in my mind and at 90 degree turns do not see it ending back exactly at 90N, but with the last leg crux, of 100 meters ''directly'' north, think somehow he'd end up a little short... a few ice bear lengths off 90N :D

Jon Torrance

Espen,

Regarding your "Within 10 days or so there will be no sea ice left north (sic) of 75th parallel north, that I suppose will be a record too, or am I wrong?", examining the CT comparison tool and other maps leads me to believe that there was still sea ice south of 75 degrees north on September 24th, 2007. I'm therefore confident you're right that that not being the case within 10 days or so would be a record but wrong to think it will happen in that time frame.

Pete Dunkelberg

Where's the bear? Of course Nick Barnes is right. One starting point is the north pole. Go due south 100 m, make a spherical 90 degree turn, go 100 m, turn back and go to the pole.

Infinitely many starting points are near the south pole. Start at the distance from the pole such that after you go due south 100 m, the circumference of a great circle is 100 m. QED

So the bear is probably at the south pole, courtesy of someone trying to save the species. ;)

crandles

>"Answer: White, since the topology described only applies at the north pole."

Two problems: I think you meant followed due East 100m.

Secondly that topology does not only apply at north pole, there are infinitely more locations on Earth where that applies but I don't think you will find bears there.

crandles

Also it isn't only 'a' ring of points, your 100m east can travel round the world 2, 3, 4 or as many times as you wish if you choose the starting distance from the south pole carefully.

Artful Dodger

Yeah Jon, there will still be lot's of sea ice South of 75N in ten days. Here's the PIOMAS forecast for July 22:

(Note that the dotted black arc in Northern Greenland is the circle of 80N latitude)

Bfraser

Looking at the arrows, it looks to me like something is wrong with the one at 87N, 135W. Could it be a bad sensor or some strange geographic feature in the middle of nowhere?

Lord Soth

I found a neat little tool for weather predicitons for differnt models up to 400 hours in the future at the weather underground site.

If you can visualize the arctic in mercator, its a neat tool. You can't zoom out to far, or it wont work, but if you have a 24" monitor, you can get most of the arctic circle in it.

Here is the link, (its slow to load up)

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

You will need to pan north and resize your self. Start with the GFS model and the MSL map and click forcast.

Lord Soth

If you use the hot keys, you can expand the image and get practically all of the arctic (in 1920 x 1080 display mode).

It's take a bit to get use to, but once you have mastered the interface; the wunderground model forcast tool with google overlay; is the greatest thing since slice bread.

It looks like the current weaker pattern will hold for another week. Weaker AO, but stronger DA. Good for ice transport.

michael sweet

Regarding the bear:
I sent an e-mail earlier this year to the scientists in charge of the north pole web can and they told me:

"Polar Bears make a living catching seals from the ice, so they hang out where the seals are. That tends to be near the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, where there tend to be more open leads and thin ice for breathing holes. But their range is amazing, and they can be found anywhere out there, including infrequently near the North Pole."

Maps of polar bear populations show the central arcitc as having a population of bears.

Artful Dodger

oh the answer to Kevin's riddle is definitely 'White', since Nat.Geo TV ships them up there to appear in their Doco's...

Kevin McKinney

Glad 'my' riddle provided a few moments of levity; we could use it, in general.

But as I said, it's an old wheeze and I really can't take credit (or blame), except for transmitting it.

I enjoyed the ingenious attempts to 'cook' the puzzle, especially the demonstration that there are possible SP trajectories. But Pete's right; the only way you'd get a polar bear there would be via human transportation.

(I've seen a serious suggestion (well, the proposer was serious, anyway) that polar bears should be introduced to Antarctica as a conservation measure, but they'd never survive at the pole--even less likelihood of finding a seal there than at the NP.)

Neven
Jokes off, but while tracking Arctic Roos and CT, DMI and Univ. Bremen graphs (IJIS was off), the odd man for today was CT with decreasing anomaly. I've been thinking for the time being (two days ago) that we came to some halt, but I was wrong for sure. I guess these discrepancies are due to different signal processing and I am sure melt has not stalled like in 2010.

I had noticed the slowdown in CT sea ice area as well, effectively preventing a new global sea ice anomaly record. IJIS also shows a slowdown in SIA decrease. What could be causing the discrepancy with the extent graphs? Sure, compaction is making area go down slower than extent, but how about those melt ponds? Are they draining?

Too bad IJIS extent is down. I was expecting a slowdown as that high-pressure area started to weaken and move away from the central Arctic, but now I'm not sure.

Rob Dekker

Neven, you are doing just fine. I thank you for providing an environment where we can share our excitement and fears and facts about Arctic Sea Ice developments.

I have a couple of suggestions for the 'Daily Graphs' page, the first one being this link :
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm

It's an overview of (some of?) the buoys that are currently active. The interesting thing is that most of them include an ice-thickness measure and links to other buoys that measure even cooler stuff like under-ice heat flux. Now, I fully realize that many of these records are provisional and ice thickness is not regularly updated (I actually intend to send an email to the guys that track that data) but still I think buoy info would be interesting to have available on your graphs page.

And thanks again for providing excellent posts, and an environment for us to share the amazing 2011 melting season.

Neven

Oooh, that's a nice little map, Rob. Should fit in quite nicely next to the one from the International Arctic Buoy Program. Thanks.

Artful Dodger

Patrick Lockerby has posted his Arctic Ice July 2011 update.

crandles

While talking of polar bears at south pole, maybe it is worth mentioning polar bears and penguins don't get on well together:

http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/penguin.jpg

Lord Soth

The July search sea ice outlook report it out.

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php

Lord Soth

The average of the prediction has moved from 4.7 to 4.6, from June to July, with the general trend being down.

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/july

crandles

Cryosphere today area has just moved to lowest for time of year but only by a tiny margin, 3k:

2007.5288 -1.4120462 5.8710699 7.2831163

2010.5288 -1.4066484 5.8764677 7.2831163

2011.5288 -1.4142902 5.8688259 7.2831163

Neven

Thanks, Lord Soth. Post is up.

To free up some space on the Daily graphs page, I've created a new page with Regional graphs with the CT regional SIA graphs and the MASIE regional SIE graphs. Just to see how that works out.

Hans Kiesewetter

Wel done, this seperate page with regionale graphs. Nice combination of CT annual graph with the monthly graphs from NSIDC. However from the values it is clear that they use different boundaries for the regions. Sometimes the area value is above extent, sometimes below...

Phil263

Does anybody know what is going on with IJIS- JAXA? No update since July 11th!

Account Deleted

I agree with Crandles about Polar bears and penguins.
http://www.robynhobson.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/penguins_polar_bear1.jpg

Lord Soth

Yes, IJIS has been down for three days, but NSIDC is up, and is showing a greater divergence from 2007 every day.

Just reduce 100K per day since the 11th, and you should be close, until IIJS comes back up.

Lord Soth

Between the Canadian Ice chart on July 11,

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20110711180000_WIS56CT_0005904169.gif

and the latest MODIS

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20110711180000_WIS56CT_0005904169.gif

we now have complete fracture of the north west Passage.

Now we just need to wait for the ice to push out of the strait.

Lord Soth

Sorry, here it the latest MODIS of the area in question.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2011195.terra.250m

Rob Dekker

Lodger, thanks for making us aware of the PIOMAS forecast :
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html

Since I have some vested interest in PIOMAS being at least somewhat accuate
(http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/06/betting_on_sea_ice_10000.php) it makes sense for me to look in detail at how the model behaves.

Looking at the rate at which various ice thinknesses melt, in June/July, slaps of thick ice far away from the ice boundary seem to change shade (some 10cm or so) every 3 days, suggesting a melt rate of some 3cm/day (or 20cm/week). That seems a lot for ice away from open ocean.
Then, when it gets to be 1 meter or less, it takes much longer (at least 3x longer) to reduce to zero. That does not make physical sense, since one would expect the opposite (slow melt of interior thick ice and fast melt of thin boundary ice).

So it seems that they overestimate melt of thick ice, and underestimate melt of thin ice.

What do you guys think ?

How accurate the model is for actual projections, we don't know until it happens.

Let's first note that it seems that these model runs were done for July 1 (they present anything after July 1 as a 'forecast'). Here are some of the forecasts :


For one, they project the Beaufort sea to Chukchi sea-ice-land connection to dissolve by mid August. In reality, it already opened up a few days ago. That however can be wind-related.

Second, they project an opening of the NW passage (the wide route) by July 26 or so.
That's a nice one to keep an eye on.

Third, they project the NE passage to be fully open by August 15 if I see that correctly (if there no way to slow down these movies?) and it may open up away from the coastline.

Finally, this July 1 projection seems to show a very, very small minimum in September. Is it my perception, or does this video show a much smaller minimum extent projection than Zhang's best estimate of 4.3 million km^2 ?
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b014e89d60817970d-popup

Either way, I think it really cool to see PIOMAS in action, and I have deep respect for the science behind this program, but we should take it's projections with a grain of salt. As FrankD remarked on Stoat : "it's only a model...".

Peter Ellis

Just checked the numerical data from IJIS, and it looks like this is updating even though the front page graph isn't. Figure are:

07,11,2011,7895000 (last figure on graph)
07,12,2011,7744688 (150,312 lost)
07,13,2011,7639063 (105,625 lost)
07,14,2011,7519375 (119,688 lost - may not be the final updated figure for this date)

So, it looks like another three century breaks on the trot, and loss in excess(?) of 2007.

FrankD

in excess(?) of 2007.

Yes - currently 265,625 ahead of 2007 (pending possible revision). 2011 has increased it's lead over 2007 by ~30,000 sq km's since 11th July.

A bit of a milestone today: 2011 is now more than one million sq km's below the existing IJIS average for this date (ie 2002 to 2010). For most of the year its been tracking in the -300's to -400's but has dived an additional 480,000 sq kms below the previous average so far in July.

"I'm melting! Melting! Oh, what a world, what a world!"

Artful Dodger

Well, turns out there's an Ice Tethered Profiler and an Ocean Flux Buoy collocated with NOAA's North-pole Webcam #2 :^)

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2011C.htm

Initial Conditions Snow Depth: 5 cm Ice Thickness at Thermistors: 140 cm

Below Measurements from temperature profiles
Maximum Measurements
Snow Thickness: 15 cm (6/14/11)
Ice Thickness: 160 cm (6/21/11)

Recent Measurements (6/21/11)
Snow Thickness: 0 cm
Ice Thickness:140 cm

Snow Melt: 15 cm (All snow melted)
Ice Surface Melt: 20 cm
Bottom Surface Melt: 0 cm

Current Buoy Data:
Iridium ID: 207570

Lat: 88.774 deg
Lon: -96.710 deg

Updated: 07/12/2011

Account Deleted

So will we hit the 7 million mark by the 19th, 20th or 21st?

crandles

Average melt for last 14 days (=first 14 days of July):

2002 -80469
2003 -75692
2004 -66819
2005 -78125
2006 -83839
2007 -117656
2008 -80000
2009 -95212
2010 -55067
2011 -116328

2007 and 2011 are way ahead of other years.

2007 doesn't have a century break in next 6 days so passing 2007's July melt looks possible.

(I don't understand why Neven doesn't compare like with like as above instead of his whole month against part month comparisons.)

Peter Ellis

Looking back at the history of summer minima over the last few years, the phrase "dead cat bounce" seems ever more appropriate.

Lord Soth

375K in three days, Pious Feces Batman !

I was checking the data log, and it was not updated 12 hours ago, so must have happened during the night.

And I figured my 100K a day was a touch high.

Welcome to the dawn of the Anthropocene Epoch.

Lord Soth

The AO has gone positive, but we are still seeing great ice loss.

If you look at the 3-5-7 band, to highlight the cloud, you see that 3/4 of the ice is still getting direct sunshine, and the big low is helping push ice out of the fran strait.

So I don't think its the AO that is important, but the placement of highs and low in the arctic.

It would be nice to have a graph showing the total solar load on the ice pack, as this would probably predict ice loss conditions better than the AO alone.

Seke Rob

Made an update to the < 7M chart with a first [math] prediction of July 21, using 4 years of date specific averages... it's getting doubtful there wont be a new ''earliest'' record set.

For any next 'earliest' probably switch to smaller steps as more prior years wont have made it that low dropping off the table. No trend line either as then it becomes a [leading the eye] weather prediction.

Lord Soth, "Dawn of the Anthropocene Epoch"... sorry guy, but the chief of that mini state (V) to which I/We live close by, has accepted Anthropocene as the current era. Holocene is passé. In 10,000 years when the new humans [if there will be any] drill holes in the [remaining] Greenland ice sheet, they'll not find a trace of us in the cores... surely in the sediments at the fringes of the island, or the central lake, if the bottom has not rebounded :(

Neven
Wel done, this seperate page with regionale graphs. Nice combination of CT annual graph with the monthly graphs from NSIDC.

Thanks, Hans!

we now have complete fracture of the north west Passage.

Now we just need to wait for the ice to push out of the strait.

Yup, Lord Soth. It's the wind from the East that is keeping it together for now, but things are falling apart at the other side real fast now. The NWP will be free this year, as will the Northern Sea Route. I'm keeping an eye on the Canadian Archipelago lately.

Either way, I think it really cool to see PIOMAS in action, and I have deep respect for the science behind this program, but we should take it's projections with a grain of salt. As FrankD remarked on Stoat : "it's only a model...".

Thanks for sharing the analysis, Rob!

So, it looks like another three century breaks on the trot, and loss in excess(?) of 2007.

I have one word for this: Amazing. If you want two words you can put effing in front of amazing. Next SIE update is coming up.

(I don't understand why Neven doesn't compare like with like as above instead of his whole month against part month comparisons.)

To be fair, Chris, I did mention in this SIE update that the 2007 and 2009 average so far were much higher than the total month average.

So I don't think its the AO that is important, but the placement of highs and low in the arctic.

Bingo!

Seke Rob

Here's an updated table of the average SIE per IARC/JAXA for the first 6.5 months of the years 2003-2011. Ranking in last column. 2006 continues to lead the pack on that metric... the flip towards 2007 happening in a number of weeks, if then not surpassed by 2011 already.

'11 12215610 2
'10 - 12468634 (5)
'09 - 12697168 (8)
'08 - 12679548 (7)
'07 - 12327542 (3)
'06 - 12144516 (1)
'05 - 12378008 (4)
'04 - 12593644 (6)
'03 - 12950251 (9)

Per CT, 2011 has already the [negative] highest Area average anomaly of -1,066,000 km square for the 6.5 month period, where 2007 was the record keeper at -1,037,000. Is there meaning in that, but for statistically? Certainly has shot the ''sun is low'' story (heard it again in context of last winter having been so terrible in large regions). Is La Nina doing it when it has the timing right? Correlation is no causation.

crandles

>"To be fair, Chris, I did mention in this SIE update that the 2007 and 2009 average so far were much higher than the total month average."

To be fair, I should say you are always thorough and not only did you mention the 2007 and 2009 average this time but you always mention the issue of the comparison of a whole month against a part month.

I appreciate the thoroughness of your updates.

I am just trying to say it seems slightly odd for you to always mention the issue of not comparing like with like but not change to comparing like with like. I was hoping this would be seen as an attempt at constructive criticism rather than complaining that I am not satisfied. Sorry for not stating my appreciation of your thoroughness earlier.

Neven

You can always complain/criticize as there always is room for improvement. Perhaps for July it would be better to compare average apples with average apples, and not average melons (as the difference between the first tow weeks and the last two weeks is quite big). On the other hand I personally like to see how a current month compares with previous month averages. I of course look at both of them in my spreadsheet. And of course it's less work to just copypaste the table from the last SIE update! ;-)

I'll see what I do in a minute (am writing the thing as we speak).

Daniel Bailey

Neven, is it possible that typepad will let you display more than the most recent 10 comments in your left margin?

You guys are cranking out interesting comments so frequently I know I'm missing some good ones, as they fall off the bottom faster than I can stop in & check on things.

Tough problem to have, eh?

Neven

I'll see what I can do, Daniel, Yooper, sir. In the meantime have fun with the latest SIE update.

Espen

The figures are heading South 7,519,375 km2 (July 14, 2011), and I believe they are even further down in the real world, and the the ice is heading North, my prediction of no real sea ice below the 75th north parallel in +/- 10 days from now is not that far away?

Espen

And almost no Fast Ice left in Russia and surroundings!

Daniel Bailey

Thank you, Neven-san!

www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawncYBDhF_T0PEX9jyLqYyztuB8IsX8zc78

Neven,

I read the science as a hobby and have finally booted myself into doing a blog.

I've just dumped on a series of articles I was going to do as overlong posts at the science forums where I normally post. The most recent one is about why my scepticism about an imminent sea-ice free summer minimum is wavering. There are 2 other posts about thickness of Arctic sea ice. http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2011/07/in-flux.html

Regards, and thanks for your efforts (I now know how much time it takes).

Chris

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