During the melting season I'm regularly writing updates on the current sea ice extent (SIE) as reported by IJIS (a joint effort of the International Arctic Research Center and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and compare it to the sea ice extents in the period 2005-2010. NSIDC has a good explanation of what sea ice extent is in their FAQ. I also look at other things like sea ice area, concentration, volume, temperature and weather forecasts, anything that can be of particular interest. Check out the Arctic sea ice graph webpage for daily updated graphs, maps and live webcam images.
July 9th 2011
Last week I wrote in the conclusion of SIE 2011 update 10:
I think we are going to see above average melting the coming week, perhaps even some century breaks.
This is exactly what has come about. Not that it was hard to predict, as everything was pointing to a big high-pressure area stabilizing over the central Arctic. In fact, I even was a bit too cautious/cowardly. The first 8 days of July saw 5 century breaks, of which 3 made it into the top 10 of biggest daily extent decreases (h/t Lord Soth).
As the sun keeps burning hot and long, its rays reaching much of the ice in the Arctic Basin, 2011 is tracking 2007 and 2009, the only years having an average daily extent decrease of over 100,000 square km in the first 8 days of July. And although that high-pressure guaranteed a substantial drop in extent, there was and still is plenty to learn and observe.
Of course, dominating high-pressure areas are a prerequisite for mega-melt, but how much do details in distribution matter? The Dipole Anomaly requires a high-pressure area over the Canadian Archipelago, extending to Greenland. For the Beaufort Gyre to gyre the high-pressure should be ideally over the Beaufort Sea (hence the name I guess). But this current high-pressure area is very large and over the centre of the Arctic Basin, almost directly over the North Pole, which prohibits strong ice export through Fram Strait, to name a thing. Still the extent decreases fast.
What will the effect of all this insolation in the middle of the ice pack be as we enter the second halftime of the melting season? And of course the million dollar question: will 2011 keep tracking 2007? How long is this high going to dominate?
Sea ice extent (SIE)
Here's the current IJIS SIE graph:
2011 decided to forge ahead, leaving 2010 in the dust and even increasing the lead over 2007. This is quite amazing as 2007 had a stunning run of century breaks in this first part of July. I guess I don't have to explain that this means 2011 is currently leading in the race. 2010 is finished for the rest of the month and will fall back quickly. The same goes for 2006, albeit to a lesser extent. 2009 will start to put up a fight towards the end of the month. But right now it's between 2011 and mighty 2007.
The current difference between 2011 and the other years is as follows:
- 2005: -684K (-83,709)
- 2006: -338K (-70,025)
- 2007: -234K (-98,608)
- 2008: -873K (-81,068)
- 2009: -730K (-92,127)
- 2010: -175K (-62,601)
Between brackets is the average daily extent rate for the month of July. 2011's average daily extent rate for July is currently -115,859 square kilometers. This is a lot higher than the July average daily extent rate in other years, but 2007 and 2009 had rates of -122,149 square km and -107,480 square km respectively in the first 8 days of July.
Sea ice area (SIA)
Extent has been dropping faster than area, for the simple reason that the anticyclonic flow caused by the high-pressure area compacts the ice pack, filling up the holes that are counted for SIA. This means that the anomaly on the Cryosphere Today SIA anomaly graph is still hovering around the -1.5 million square km mark, although it has been going down again rather fast in the past couple of days:
When it comes to regional SIA, I can be very short: SIA is going down practically everywhere. Amazingly, Hudson Bay still contains about 200K of ice, so we can expect an extended contribution to SIE and SIA decrease for another couple of days. Despite the sea ice pack being pushed towards Siberia, the SIA in both the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea has been going down hard. The Kara Sea has almost hit rock bottom, which is very early in the melting season.
On a side note: One rather interesting development is the global sea ice area anomaly. Because sea ice area in the Antarctic is extremely low for this time of year, the combined SIA anomaly has surpassed the - 2 million square mark and is getting awfully close to 2007's record of - 2.44 million square km.
I guess that's one thing less for certain people to point to. ;-)
Cryosphere Today area per IJIS extent (CAPIE)
Despite SIE going down harder than SIA in the past week, the CAPIE trend line is still in the middle of the pack. Of course, compaction is pushing the percentage up, but this is certainly compensated by all those melt ponds forming right now all over the heavily insolated ice pack. These melt ponds are counted as open water in sea ice area measurements, which is one reason why most people prefer sea ice extent. For more info on that read last year's blog post that spawned this blog's CAPIE graph:
Sea Level Pressure
And so we have arrived to the indispensable part of SIE updates. We had some great news coming in this week with PIPS coming back online. So I'll start out with an animation of PIPS images of the past 14 days to show what the effect of that big high-pressure area over the Arctic Basin has been:
And here's an animation with SLP images from the DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice that shows how things have been developing since the start of July:
We can clearly see how that high formed, developed further and moved towards the middle of the Arctic Basin. Of course, the AO Index has turned pretty negative because of it and is projected to stay negative for a while longer. This is also reflected in the ECMWF weather forecast maps for the coming 5 days:
It seems the high will become a tad less intense and move over the Beaufort Sea, with a low-pressure area forming over the Siberian coast. It will be interesting to see what the effect will be. Perhaps an increase in ice transport towards Fram Strait and the recently opened Nares Strait.
For more info on how this year compares SLP-wise to other years in the period 2005-2010 I recommend this other blog post I put up today.
Update conclusion
As they say in Holland: this story is getting a tail. I think we will be seeing some more days of high extent decrease, century breaks even. Things are going to shift a bit too, so it will be interesting to see what happens exactly. All in all I expect 2011 to still be leading when I write SIE update 12 next week.
So far we have seen mega-melt.
---
TIPS - Other blog posts and news articles concerning the Arctic and its ice:
Joe Romm has a good June summary up on ClimateProgress.
The same goes for Weather Underground's Jeff Masters, who believes "that we will come very close to breaking the 2007 record for all-time ice loss in September, but fall just short".
Kevin O'Neill | July 13, 2011 at 22:12
I tend to follow the Cryosphere Today front picture, the colored one, not the comparative down below of much lower detail. It's been red-yellow all around the black hole, so suspect it's bigger. The drift map shows it currently near 88N, general direction Greenland.
Kevin McKinney
The bear story and topology, drew the track in my mind and at 90 degree turns do not see it ending back exactly at 90N, but with the last leg crux, of 100 meters ''directly'' north, think somehow he'd end up a little short... a few ice bear lengths off 90N :D
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 13, 2011 at 22:36
Kevin, the topology also applies to a ring of points close to the south pole, but there are no bears there.
For that matter, there are no bears at the north pole, but too many facts spoil any riddle.
Posted by: Nick Barnes | July 13, 2011 at 22:49
@Kevin McKinney: In near future, the correct answer will be: It was not a bear at all, it was whale.
Jokes off, but while tracking Arctic Roos and CT, DMI and Univ. Bremen graphs (IJIS was off), the odd man for today was CT with decreasing anomaly. I've been thinking for the time being (two days ago) that we came to some halt, but I was wrong for sure. I guess these discrepancies are due to different signal processing and I am sure melt has not stalled like in 2010.
On the other hand I would wait till first 10 days in august to see in how bad state ice is (in term of extent and/or area).
And I would state it clearly, even if somebody won't like it, but: Even if we'd get Arctic summer ice free in 2100, that is really, really bad. More, than average denier would imagine. And it looks that it is worse. Much worse. Even if it is by 2040, it is much much worse. If it is (and at least to PIOMAS projections) within this decade, than we may suffer severe changes in weather patterns. But, who am I to talk about. We have many really good scientists out there, and they are working their job fair, and I'd say, even conservatively when they are unsure. The correct position in my point.
And for the final, a little joke:
Q: Which is worse: Cancer or Economist ?
A: Economist. Cancer is satisfied with steady state growth, Economist wants even more.
Posted by: Patrice Pustavrh | July 13, 2011 at 22:59
A little bit of edit:
The correct position in my point. should be read as The correct position in my point of view.
Posted by: Patrice Pustavrh | July 13, 2011 at 23:02
@Nick, topology is similar, but you cannot go south of south pole ;). Anyway, regarding the bears at NP I do trust you. But, it was just a little joke anyway.
Posted by: Patrice Pustavrh | July 13, 2011 at 23:04
Repost of something that seems to have gone down the black hole [and recouped from that fantastic OpenText Area Cache addon to Firefox]:
Kevin O'Neill | July 13, 2011 at 22:12
I tend to follow the Cryosphere Today front picture, the colored one, not the comparative down below of much lower detail. It's been red-yellow all around the black hole, so suspect it's bigger. The drift map shows it currently near 88N, general direction Greenland.
Kevin McKinney
The bear story and topology, drew the track in my mind and at 90 degree turns do not see it ending back exactly at 90N, but with the last leg crux, of 100 meters ''directly'' north, think somehow he'd end up a little short... a few ice bear lengths off 90N :D
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 13, 2011 at 23:14
Espen,
Regarding your "Within 10 days or so there will be no sea ice left north (sic) of 75th parallel north, that I suppose will be a record too, or am I wrong?", examining the CT comparison tool and other maps leads me to believe that there was still sea ice south of 75 degrees north on September 24th, 2007. I'm therefore confident you're right that that not being the case within 10 days or so would be a record but wrong to think it will happen in that time frame.
Posted by: Jon Torrance | July 13, 2011 at 23:24
Where's the bear? Of course Nick Barnes is right. One starting point is the north pole. Go due south 100 m, make a spherical 90 degree turn, go 100 m, turn back and go to the pole.
Infinitely many starting points are near the south pole. Start at the distance from the pole such that after you go due south 100 m, the circumference of a great circle is 100 m. QED
So the bear is probably at the south pole, courtesy of someone trying to save the species. ;)
Posted by: Pete Dunkelberg | July 13, 2011 at 23:49
>"Answer: White, since the topology described only applies at the north pole."
Two problems: I think you meant followed due East 100m.
Secondly that topology does not only apply at north pole, there are infinitely more locations on Earth where that applies but I don't think you will find bears there.
Posted by: crandles | July 14, 2011 at 00:06
Also it isn't only 'a' ring of points, your 100m east can travel round the world 2, 3, 4 or as many times as you wish if you choose the starting distance from the south pole carefully.
Posted by: crandles | July 14, 2011 at 00:12
Yeah Jon, there will still be lot's of sea ice South of 75N in ten days. Here's the PIOMAS forecast for July 22:
(Note that the dotted black arc in Northern Greenland is the circle of 80N latitude)
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 14, 2011 at 01:09
Looking at the arrows, it looks to me like something is wrong with the one at 87N, 135W. Could it be a bad sensor or some strange geographic feature in the middle of nowhere?
Posted by: Bfraser | July 14, 2011 at 01:41
I found a neat little tool for weather predicitons for differnt models up to 400 hours in the future at the weather underground site.
If you can visualize the arctic in mercator, its a neat tool. You can't zoom out to far, or it wont work, but if you have a 24" monitor, you can get most of the arctic circle in it.
Here is the link, (its slow to load up)
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0
You will need to pan north and resize your self. Start with the GFS model and the MSL map and click forcast.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 14, 2011 at 02:16
If you use the hot keys, you can expand the image and get practically all of the arctic (in 1920 x 1080 display mode).
It's take a bit to get use to, but once you have mastered the interface; the wunderground model forcast tool with google overlay; is the greatest thing since slice bread.
It looks like the current weaker pattern will hold for another week. Weaker AO, but stronger DA. Good for ice transport.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 14, 2011 at 02:36
Regarding the bear:
I sent an e-mail earlier this year to the scientists in charge of the north pole web can and they told me:
"Polar Bears make a living catching seals from the ice, so they hang out where the seals are. That tends to be near the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, where there tend to be more open leads and thin ice for breathing holes. But their range is amazing, and they can be found anywhere out there, including infrequently near the North Pole."
Maps of polar bear populations show the central arcitc as having a population of bears.
Posted by: michael sweet | July 14, 2011 at 02:38
oh the answer to Kevin's riddle is definitely 'White', since Nat.Geo TV ships them up there to appear in their Doco's...
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 14, 2011 at 03:50
Glad 'my' riddle provided a few moments of levity; we could use it, in general.
But as I said, it's an old wheeze and I really can't take credit (or blame), except for transmitting it.
I enjoyed the ingenious attempts to 'cook' the puzzle, especially the demonstration that there are possible SP trajectories. But Pete's right; the only way you'd get a polar bear there would be via human transportation.
(I've seen a serious suggestion (well, the proposer was serious, anyway) that polar bears should be introduced to Antarctica as a conservation measure, but they'd never survive at the pole--even less likelihood of finding a seal there than at the NP.)
Posted by: Kevin McKinney | July 14, 2011 at 07:01
I had noticed the slowdown in CT sea ice area as well, effectively preventing a new global sea ice anomaly record. IJIS also shows a slowdown in SIA decrease. What could be causing the discrepancy with the extent graphs? Sure, compaction is making area go down slower than extent, but how about those melt ponds? Are they draining?
Too bad IJIS extent is down. I was expecting a slowdown as that high-pressure area started to weaken and move away from the central Arctic, but now I'm not sure.
Posted by: Neven | July 14, 2011 at 08:09
Neven, you are doing just fine. I thank you for providing an environment where we can share our excitement and fears and facts about Arctic Sea Ice developments.
I have a couple of suggestions for the 'Daily Graphs' page, the first one being this link :
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm
It's an overview of (some of?) the buoys that are currently active. The interesting thing is that most of them include an ice-thickness measure and links to other buoys that measure even cooler stuff like under-ice heat flux. Now, I fully realize that many of these records are provisional and ice thickness is not regularly updated (I actually intend to send an email to the guys that track that data) but still I think buoy info would be interesting to have available on your graphs page.
And thanks again for providing excellent posts, and an environment for us to share the amazing 2011 melting season.
Posted by: Rob Dekker | July 14, 2011 at 09:17
Oooh, that's a nice little map, Rob. Should fit in quite nicely next to the one from the International Arctic Buoy Program. Thanks.
Posted by: Neven | July 14, 2011 at 09:32
Patrick Lockerby has posted his Arctic Ice July 2011 update.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 14, 2011 at 09:58
While talking of polar bears at south pole, maybe it is worth mentioning polar bears and penguins don't get on well together:
http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/penguin.jpg
Posted by: crandles | July 14, 2011 at 11:51
The July search sea ice outlook report it out.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 14, 2011 at 13:14
The average of the prediction has moved from 4.7 to 4.6, from June to July, with the general trend being down.
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/july
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 14, 2011 at 13:18
Cryosphere today area has just moved to lowest for time of year but only by a tiny margin, 3k:
2007.5288 -1.4120462 5.8710699 7.2831163
2010.5288 -1.4066484 5.8764677 7.2831163
2011.5288 -1.4142902 5.8688259 7.2831163
Posted by: crandles | July 14, 2011 at 15:04
Thanks, Lord Soth. Post is up.
To free up some space on the Daily graphs page, I've created a new page with Regional graphs with the CT regional SIA graphs and the MASIE regional SIE graphs. Just to see how that works out.
Posted by: Neven | July 14, 2011 at 17:44
Wel done, this seperate page with regionale graphs. Nice combination of CT annual graph with the monthly graphs from NSIDC. However from the values it is clear that they use different boundaries for the regions. Sometimes the area value is above extent, sometimes below...
Posted by: Hans Kiesewetter | July 14, 2011 at 22:28
Does anybody know what is going on with IJIS- JAXA? No update since July 11th!
Posted by: Phil263 | July 15, 2011 at 01:13
I agree with Crandles about Polar bears and penguins.
http://www.robynhobson.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/penguins_polar_bear1.jpg
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 15, 2011 at 01:32
Yes, IJIS has been down for three days, but NSIDC is up, and is showing a greater divergence from 2007 every day.
Just reduce 100K per day since the 11th, and you should be close, until IIJS comes back up.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 15, 2011 at 03:59
Between the Canadian Ice chart on July 11,
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20110711180000_WIS56CT_0005904169.gif
and the latest MODIS
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS56CT/20110711180000_WIS56CT_0005904169.gif
we now have complete fracture of the north west Passage.
Now we just need to wait for the ice to push out of the strait.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 15, 2011 at 04:12
Sorry, here it the latest MODIS of the area in question.
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2011195.terra.250m
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 15, 2011 at 04:13
Lodger, thanks for making us aware of the PIOMAS forecast :
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/zhang/IDAO/seasonal_outlook.html
Since I have some vested interest in PIOMAS being at least somewhat accuate
(http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/06/betting_on_sea_ice_10000.php) it makes sense for me to look in detail at how the model behaves.
Looking at the rate at which various ice thinknesses melt, in June/July, slaps of thick ice far away from the ice boundary seem to change shade (some 10cm or so) every 3 days, suggesting a melt rate of some 3cm/day (or 20cm/week). That seems a lot for ice away from open ocean.
Then, when it gets to be 1 meter or less, it takes much longer (at least 3x longer) to reduce to zero. That does not make physical sense, since one would expect the opposite (slow melt of interior thick ice and fast melt of thin boundary ice).
So it seems that they overestimate melt of thick ice, and underestimate melt of thin ice.
What do you guys think ?
How accurate the model is for actual projections, we don't know until it happens.
Let's first note that it seems that these model runs were done for July 1 (they present anything after July 1 as a 'forecast'). Here are some of the forecasts :
For one, they project the Beaufort sea to Chukchi sea-ice-land connection to dissolve by mid August. In reality, it already opened up a few days ago. That however can be wind-related.
Second, they project an opening of the NW passage (the wide route) by July 26 or so.
That's a nice one to keep an eye on.
Third, they project the NE passage to be fully open by August 15 if I see that correctly (if there no way to slow down these movies?) and it may open up away from the coastline.
Finally, this July 1 projection seems to show a very, very small minimum in September. Is it my perception, or does this video show a much smaller minimum extent projection than Zhang's best estimate of 4.3 million km^2 ?
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b014e89d60817970d-popup
Either way, I think it really cool to see PIOMAS in action, and I have deep respect for the science behind this program, but we should take it's projections with a grain of salt. As FrankD remarked on Stoat : "it's only a model...".
Posted by: Rob Dekker | July 15, 2011 at 09:39
Just checked the numerical data from IJIS, and it looks like this is updating even though the front page graph isn't. Figure are:
07,11,2011,7895000 (last figure on graph)
07,12,2011,7744688 (150,312 lost)
07,13,2011,7639063 (105,625 lost)
07,14,2011,7519375 (119,688 lost - may not be the final updated figure for this date)
So, it looks like another three century breaks on the trot, and loss in excess(?) of 2007.
Posted by: Peter Ellis | July 15, 2011 at 10:56
in excess(?) of 2007.
Yes - currently 265,625 ahead of 2007 (pending possible revision). 2011 has increased it's lead over 2007 by ~30,000 sq km's since 11th July.
A bit of a milestone today: 2011 is now more than one million sq km's below the existing IJIS average for this date (ie 2002 to 2010). For most of the year its been tracking in the -300's to -400's but has dived an additional 480,000 sq kms below the previous average so far in July.
"I'm melting! Melting! Oh, what a world, what a world!"
Posted by: FrankD | July 15, 2011 at 11:27
Well, turns out there's an Ice Tethered Profiler and an Ocean Flux Buoy collocated with NOAA's North-pole Webcam #2 :^)
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2011C.htm
Posted by: Artful Dodger | July 15, 2011 at 11:34
So will we hit the 7 million mark by the 19th, 20th or 21st?
Posted by: Account Deleted | July 15, 2011 at 11:37
Average melt for last 14 days (=first 14 days of July):
2002 -80469
2003 -75692
2004 -66819
2005 -78125
2006 -83839
2007 -117656
2008 -80000
2009 -95212
2010 -55067
2011 -116328
2007 and 2011 are way ahead of other years.
2007 doesn't have a century break in next 6 days so passing 2007's July melt looks possible.
(I don't understand why Neven doesn't compare like with like as above instead of his whole month against part month comparisons.)
Posted by: crandles | July 15, 2011 at 12:09
Looking back at the history of summer minima over the last few years, the phrase "dead cat bounce" seems ever more appropriate.
Posted by: Peter Ellis | July 15, 2011 at 13:01
375K in three days, Pious Feces Batman !
I was checking the data log, and it was not updated 12 hours ago, so must have happened during the night.
And I figured my 100K a day was a touch high.
Welcome to the dawn of the Anthropocene Epoch.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 15, 2011 at 14:17
The AO has gone positive, but we are still seeing great ice loss.
If you look at the 3-5-7 band, to highlight the cloud, you see that 3/4 of the ice is still getting direct sunshine, and the big low is helping push ice out of the fran strait.
So I don't think its the AO that is important, but the placement of highs and low in the arctic.
It would be nice to have a graph showing the total solar load on the ice pack, as this would probably predict ice loss conditions better than the AO alone.
Posted by: Lord Soth | July 15, 2011 at 14:34
Made an update to the < 7M chart with a first [math] prediction of July 21, using 4 years of date specific averages... it's getting doubtful there wont be a new ''earliest'' record set.
For any next 'earliest' probably switch to smaller steps as more prior years wont have made it that low dropping off the table. No trend line either as then it becomes a [leading the eye] weather prediction.
Lord Soth, "Dawn of the Anthropocene Epoch"... sorry guy, but the chief of that mini state (V) to which I/We live close by, has accepted Anthropocene as the current era. Holocene is passé. In 10,000 years when the new humans [if there will be any] drill holes in the [remaining] Greenland ice sheet, they'll not find a trace of us in the cores... surely in the sediments at the fringes of the island, or the central lake, if the bottom has not rebounded :(
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 15, 2011 at 16:03
Thanks, Hans!
Yup, Lord Soth. It's the wind from the East that is keeping it together for now, but things are falling apart at the other side real fast now. The NWP will be free this year, as will the Northern Sea Route. I'm keeping an eye on the Canadian Archipelago lately.
Thanks for sharing the analysis, Rob!
I have one word for this: Amazing. If you want two words you can put effing in front of amazing. Next SIE update is coming up.
To be fair, Chris, I did mention in this SIE update that the 2007 and 2009 average so far were much higher than the total month average.
Bingo!
Posted by: Neven | July 15, 2011 at 16:08
Here's an updated table of the average SIE per IARC/JAXA for the first 6.5 months of the years 2003-2011. Ranking in last column. 2006 continues to lead the pack on that metric... the flip towards 2007 happening in a number of weeks, if then not surpassed by 2011 already.
'11 12215610 2
'10 - 12468634 (5)
'09 - 12697168 (8)
'08 - 12679548 (7)
'07 - 12327542 (3)
'06 - 12144516 (1)
'05 - 12378008 (4)
'04 - 12593644 (6)
'03 - 12950251 (9)
Per CT, 2011 has already the [negative] highest Area average anomaly of -1,066,000 km square for the 6.5 month period, where 2007 was the record keeper at -1,037,000. Is there meaning in that, but for statistically? Certainly has shot the ''sun is low'' story (heard it again in context of last winter having been so terrible in large regions). Is La Nina doing it when it has the timing right? Correlation is no causation.
Posted by: Seke Rob | July 15, 2011 at 16:21
>"To be fair, Chris, I did mention in this SIE update that the 2007 and 2009 average so far were much higher than the total month average."
To be fair, I should say you are always thorough and not only did you mention the 2007 and 2009 average this time but you always mention the issue of the comparison of a whole month against a part month.
I appreciate the thoroughness of your updates.
I am just trying to say it seems slightly odd for you to always mention the issue of not comparing like with like but not change to comparing like with like. I was hoping this would be seen as an attempt at constructive criticism rather than complaining that I am not satisfied. Sorry for not stating my appreciation of your thoroughness earlier.
Posted by: crandles | July 15, 2011 at 16:28
You can always complain/criticize as there always is room for improvement. Perhaps for July it would be better to compare average apples with average apples, and not average melons (as the difference between the first tow weeks and the last two weeks is quite big). On the other hand I personally like to see how a current month compares with previous month averages. I of course look at both of them in my spreadsheet. And of course it's less work to just copypaste the table from the last SIE update! ;-)
I'll see what I do in a minute (am writing the thing as we speak).
Posted by: Neven | July 15, 2011 at 16:35
Neven, is it possible that typepad will let you display more than the most recent 10 comments in your left margin?
You guys are cranking out interesting comments so frequently I know I'm missing some good ones, as they fall off the bottom faster than I can stop in & check on things.
Tough problem to have, eh?
Posted by: Daniel Bailey | July 15, 2011 at 17:43
I'll see what I can do, Daniel, Yooper, sir. In the meantime have fun with the latest SIE update.
Posted by: Neven | July 15, 2011 at 18:24
The figures are heading South 7,519,375 km2 (July 14, 2011), and I believe they are even further down in the real world, and the the ice is heading North, my prediction of no real sea ice below the 75th north parallel in +/- 10 days from now is not that far away?
Posted by: Espen | July 15, 2011 at 20:58
And almost no Fast Ice left in Russia and surroundings!
Posted by: Espen | July 15, 2011 at 22:07
Thank you, Neven-san!
Posted by: Daniel Bailey | July 15, 2011 at 22:12
Neven,
I read the science as a hobby and have finally booted myself into doing a blog.
I've just dumped on a series of articles I was going to do as overlong posts at the science forums where I normally post. The most recent one is about why my scepticism about an imminent sea-ice free summer minimum is wavering. There are 2 other posts about thickness of Arctic sea ice. http://dosbat.blogspot.com/2011/07/in-flux.html
Regards, and thanks for your efforts (I now know how much time it takes).
Chris
Posted by: www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawncYBDhF_T0PEX9jyLqYyztuB8IsX8zc78 | July 17, 2011 at 20:01