2011 Slush Puppie Animation

If last year was characterized by holes in the middle of the ice pack, this year is the year of rotten ice. A term I like even better is Slush Puppie, because it's ice that's not only very fragile, but keeps getting churned around as well. This ice is becoming a more and more dominant factor when it comes to setting records. Can it spread out and hold out long enough until the sun goes down and freezing temperatures end the melting season (like it did last year)? Or will it suddenly just fall apart and disappear?

On the LANCE-MODIS satellite images we can see that large areas at the edge of the ice pack are covered with this weak ice, especially in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. But as clouds don't allow me to make a decent animation, I've returned yet again to the University of Bremen's excellent archive of sea ice concentration maps.

Do not be distracted too much by the rapidly changing colours, and instead concentrate on the edges of the ice pack or focus on one point. Also check out how the warm water from the Laptev Sea is eating its way into the pack:

I will try and update this animation on a daily basis. Don't forget: you have easy access to this and all other animations by clicking on Animations in the upper menu bar.

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Update September 8th: Added images from the previous 2 days. Some of the ice in the Laptev Bite has re-appeared, as it is being pushed together again.

Update September 6th: Added images from the previous 3 days (and removed a couple). There was some more flash melting in the Laptev Bite.

Update September 2nd: Added images from the previous 3 days. The ice is still slowly disappearing.

Update August 31st: Added yesterday's image. More ice vanishing.

Update August 30th: Added images from the previous two days. Some of that ice on the Pacific side is disappearing again.

Update August 28th: Deleted a couple of images (up to the 20th) and added a couple of images. Some of the 'melted' ice seems to be flashing back to life.

Update August 23rd: Added yesterday's image. More flash melting in the Beaufort sea. Could be a fluke. See this post.

Update August 22nd: Added yesterday's image. Lot of flash melting in the Beaufort sea, apparently.

Update August 21st: Added yesterday's image.

Comments

[Seke Rob]

Hi Neven,

Do actual sea ice maps such as above exist that show on top sea water surface temps (The lazies types like me and the public would take that in like ... slush puppy)

In a little we'll know what the Polarstern sees as having now well entered that blind spot.

[crandles]

Just 13 days and int the Chukchi sector most of ice between 75N and 80N has gone or is going. Note also that this isn't a protuding part that gets waves from many directions. This really shows up how the multiyear ice in the Beauford has held up the retreat. If we lose much of the remaining multiyear ice so there is little to move into Beauford and Chukchi, the retreat will be devastatingly fast.

[Neven]

Seke Rob, the DMI SST maps can be played as an animation.

[Seke Rob]

Thanks for that link, crandles. Let me see... take the Bremen sea ice chart, ice portion only, and fit on top of the DMI chart. Their color schemes nicely identify where ice ends and water begins, a one stop view where ice is weak and water is boiling. Would not know how to go about to achieve that, but would know how to get the days synched side by side, then squint ;>)

[Paul Klemencic]

I just finished posting a comment on the SIE Post discussing the same issue:

Earlier this season, I essentially wrote off most of the ice pack in the Chukchi and E. Siberian regions, expecting 80-90% of that pack to melt out. This week the ice out there took a beating, but didn't necessarily show up on the reported extent as much as the hit the pack took. The E. Siberian region ice twisted toward the Laptev and was pushed back into the main pack a lot. Clearly a significant amount of ice in the E. Siberian region will survive the melt season, but it looks like that surviving ice will be pushed back into the pack.

The Chukchi region has a large extent of weak ice extending up to the 80N parallel. Its pretty clear that the ice pack will recede far enough for open seas to extend over the 80N latitude in the two quadrangles from 150W to 180W.

But offsetting some surviving ice in the E. Siberian region, the extent loss all along the pack from Svalbard up to the 135E quadrangle is going to be impressive. We should have open seas almost up to 85N all along this edge, and north of it in several places. If the wind shifts and moves ice toward the Fram, we are going to lose a lot of ice extent out of the central Arctic Basin. Since the Greenland sea ice has been beaten pretty badly over the last 4-5 days, there is even room in the Greenland sea. I think the losses in the east could easily make up for some ice extent left in the E. Siberian... So, we might still break 2007, in spite of the lateness in the season.

Neven,
I like the animation, but prefer the blink comparison a bit better. By blinking back and forth, the day to day changes are more obvious and easier to see.

[michael sweet]

Neven,
I like the animation as it is. The old ice in the Beaufort is really holding back the melt in that area. The rest of the pack is in full retreat. How far will it go before the sun sets?

[Neven]

I like the animation, but prefer the blink comparison a bit better. By blinking back and forth, the day to day changes are more obvious and easier to see.

Paul, I agree that's definitely better for day-to-day changes. I'm just giving a general overview here. Focusing on just one part of the animation also gives a good impression of regional changes.

[Timothy Chase]

From the main text, "Also check out how the warm water from the Laptev Sea is eating its way into the pack:"

Checked... Laptev Sea... In the animation, between noon and one o'clock where noon is straight up and only nine to three o'clock are visible.

[Bob Wallace]

Take a look at the regional maps for the Laptev. It's the lowest ever (?) and fast closing on zero. Looks like it might be below 1k km^2

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

[Neven]

Timothy, between one and two o'clock is where the warm water from the Laptev Sea is munching away.

[Janne Tuukkanen]

Oh dear! I'm nearly crying when I see NW Passage (or NSR, if you want) so open. It's almost pervert image. All the hardships, accomplishments and glory of my countryman Nordenskiöld and the crew of vessel Vega will be forgotten as the ice is no more.

[Janne Tuukkanen]

NE Passage. Edit functionality would be nice...

[Timothy Chase]

Neven wrote:

Timothy, between one and two o'clock is where the warm water from the Laptev Sea is munching away.

I had mistaken the New Siberian Islands for Severnaya Zemlya, and I was using the islands to figure out where the respective seas are. Embarrassing since both sets of islands are on the map, and New Siberian are in a line parallel to the Siberian coastline whereas Severnaya Zemlya are in a line perpendicular to it.

But yes, the action in Laptev is much more interesting than that in the East Siberian Sea. Both are being eaten away at, more or less, but what is happening in the Laptev Sea is much closer to the North Pole where it ought to be colder.

[Neven]

Not to worry, Timothy. I had to check three times just to be sure (I always mix up those islands and seas there).

[Chris Reynolds]

Thanks for the graphic Neven.

It's interesting that the 'dimple' in the ice edge between 150 (11:00) and 180 (12:00) formed around 3/8/11 due to a low pressure system's impact on the ice edge. Despite changes in subsequent weather it has persisted.

I think we're going to have an unusual shape to the minima this year. Whereas previously we've seen a lot of recession in the Pacific sector, this year most will be in the Atlantic sector. A lot of scattered ice should keep the extent ice edge high in Beaufort/Chucki.

[Neven]

Thanks, Chris. Am reading up on your excellent blog today.

[Timothy Chase]

Neven wrote:

Not to worry, Timothy. I had to check three times just to be sure (I always mix up those islands and seas there).

Incidentally, my current avatar is the Earth seen looking down on the pole. Its from measurements of carbon dioxide concentration through the month of July 2003 by the AIRS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. Normally I have the Bahamas at the center, but in honor of the Arctic melt season, the North Pole is at the center. I didn't know any differently so I just put the meridian running through England at the bottom, the antimeridian at the top. Turns out that this is the conventional view when the North Pole is at the center, and of course it is the one that you use.

[Geo Hernandez]

Is this 'flash melt' likely to reccur next year? Does it give any hint as to when Arctic will become ice free?

[Geo Hernandez]

"...my current avatar is a picture of the Earth seen looking down from the pole."

My desktop background is that of an ice free Arctic.