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Seke Rob

Did a chart on stepped Ice Off days similar to the stacked bar chart for extent.


Something is weird after 1996 (think that year was specifically mentioned some days ago on this blog, but forgot the 'what'). It's almost as if the signal is 'could not care less about the weather as of the mid 90's

Did look at acute daily step changes, but these are randomly appearing from 1984. Am simply not aware of the history v.v. satellite platform changes or algorithms that smooth differently during various parts of the melt season. CO2 is up, it always is, except the NH summer season, till when leaves start falling of trees. We need winter hardy, fast growing, long lived evergreens... lots of it as other sequestration is most improbable to ever put a dent in the upward curve.

Bob Wallace

The seven day (ending on 8/18) average loss is 70,580 for this year. In 2007 it was 43,192.

Except for a couple of days when losses hit 60k in 2007 and pulled the average up to 51k, 2007 average loses stayed in the middle 40s and then dropped toward zero from here on out.

It's looking like there's a lot of 'momentum' left in this ice. The sun has stopped inputting energy but the condition of the ice and stored heat seem like they could push the bottom to a new level.

I'm guessing that the next week will tell us the outcome. Unless there's a steep drop off in the next few days then we're going to see a coasting past 2007.

Bob Wallace

Whether a new record is set this year largely depends on what happens on the Pacific side. It's ice in the East Siberian along with some additional ice in adjacent areas which are holding the numbers high.

But on the Atlantic side things are quite interesting (at least to me). If you add together the remaining ice in the Central Arctic Basin and the Greenland Sea (working from eyeballing the regional maps) there was about 3.41 million km^2 total ice in 2007 and 3.38 million km^2 in 2011. Not a lot of difference, but the distribution has shifted a bit to the Greenland, taking the Central to what I would assume a record low.

Then, sitting along side that extra ice snuggling up to Greenland there's a band of ~3C water.

I'm guessing an obvious record melt in this portion of the Arctic.

(I tried posting this on the #16 thread where it better fit, but for some reason it wouldn't 'take'.)

Patrick McNulty

My idea can weaken a hurricane and so it will also restore Arctic Ice. Go here to find out how.


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