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My two estimates (er guesses) were significantly different, but fell in the same bracket. Originally I thought about 4.1, now almost 4.5


I have voted 'between 4.5 and 5 million km2' on every poll. It looks like I was too conservative. We'll know in a couple of days.

But quite soon into the melting season I became pretty certain 2011 would beat 2010.

Daniel Bailey

My W.A.G. was 4.0 +/- 0.3 million km2.

Feeling pretty good about that. Matter of fact, think I'll have an Oberon or two to salute the great ice disappearing act unfolding before our eyes.

Christoffer Ladstein

"Skål" to that Daniel, though I see I must pay Kalamazoo, Michigan a visit to come across that ale, best served Ice-fresh I assume!?

I really can't remember if I landed below or above the 4 mill km2 in the poll.

Are we anonymous in the Poll, Neven?!

Rich and Mike Island

I've voted between 4 and 4.5 in the polls, and it looks good. I also think 4.3 will be the low this year. Very close, but not quite there.

I do think a melt to below 4 million is coming soon. By that I mean 2012 or 2013.

Kevin O'Neill

The largest losses this late in the year occurred in 2005; 340k from 9/7 to 9/22. It would take almost all of that loss this year to break 2007.


Are we anonymous in the Poll, Neven?!

More or less. I can see where voters come from.

On poll number 2 someone from the region of Oslo voted 4-4.5 million km2. It's the same on poll number 3.

There's a high probability you will be allowed to drink an Oberon as well.

Skål! *raises glass filled with tap water*

Daniel Bailey

@ Christoffer

Oberon is served (bottled and on tap) throughout Michigan (but especially here in the Upper Peninsula). I'm becoming ever more fond of our local brew pub, Blackrocks, with fine fresh selections like this week's on tap:

Just the stuff to take one's mind off the melty slush at The Top Of The World!

Artful Dodger

I would also have preferred to see a finer graduation of the poll in the second and third iterations: once we saw more than 50% voting for the 4.0 to 4.5 M interval, I'd insert new categories in 0.1 M increments within that range.

I'm on record here at Nevin's joint projecting the 2011 IJIS min at 4.4 M (just picked the expected value from our best fitting curve this Spring). My spreadsheet currently projects the 2-Day minimum at 4.404 M, +/- 40 K.



I would also have preferred to see a finer graduation of the poll in the second and third iterations

Too much work, sorry! And I don't want a widget that forces people who want to vote for 3.4 million km2 to scroll down for two minutes. ;-)

Less is more and small is beautiful.

Bob Wallace

Daniel, that's not the Michigan I lived in back over 40 years ago.

Then the few bars there were (in the SW corner) had Dutch doors.

Not the two piece Dutch doors, but a back door for members of the Dutch Reformed Church to sneak in and out....

Artful Dodger

Neven, you would only need to add 4 lines: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4

As it is the poll is too coarse to be useful. Sorry.


Go vote at WUWT!


It looks like the loss of sleep and suspense of the 2011 melting season finale is starting to take it's toll.


Lodger, you think there is really use for a fine grained poll when the error bars of most guesses are several times larger then your suggested poll options?


I was just kidding, BTW. :-)

Tony Duncan

Are there awards for the closest prediction?
Is there a category for novices with absolutely no expertise?
if so i still might have a shot with my 4.6 guess in early July.

Christoffer Ladstein

An adequate Award would be to visit Neven's Arctic Spa & Wellnescenter, located somewhere in Slovenia, drinks being served by small tamed Knut-bears, which have more or less accepted the futuristic collapse of their former "Home", up north!

Would be some baluba:0)!

Oberon might be able to be found in a well equipped Beer-shop in Oslo...

Bob Wallace: Not only the Arctic has changed in 40 years; the same have taken place in Norway, much "thanks" to the oil, discovered in 1966. Until then Norway was a land of missionairies and whalers! (An outstanding combination BTW!!)

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