The last poll from the widget in the right hand bar closed a week ago. I want to share the results with you before the final SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook comes out. Mind you, I preferred the Arctic Sea Ice blog's poll to be about IJIS daily minimum extent. The SEARCH SIO predictions are for NSIDC September average extent.
Here are the results:
The average this time around is 4.299 million square km.
These were the results for the previous polls:
Poll 1 (304 votes)
4.203 million square km
- (436 votes; closed July 15th)
4.205 million square km
Poll 2 (237 votes; closed August 20th)
4.280 million square km
Poll 3 (135 votes; closed September 1st)
4.299 million square km
Here's my complex method for processing the poll results:
I've calculated the number by multiplying the percentage number with the average of an option. For instance 'between 4.5 and 5 million' = 4.75, and for 'less than 3.5 million km2' I've used 3.25 million km2. I've added up all multiplications and divided the result by 100.
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Again, this blog community's final prediction is 4.299 million square km.
IJIS SIE is currently at 4.561 million square km (September 7th 2011).
My two estimates (er guesses) were significantly different, but fell in the same bracket. Originally I thought about 4.1, now almost 4.5
Posted by: Anthonywobrien | September 08, 2011 at 22:29
I have voted 'between 4.5 and 5 million km2' on every poll. It looks like I was too conservative. We'll know in a couple of days.
But quite soon into the melting season I became pretty certain 2011 would beat 2010.
Posted by: Neven | September 08, 2011 at 22:33
My W.A.G. was 4.0 +/- 0.3 million km2.
Feeling pretty good about that. Matter of fact, think I'll have an Oberon or two to salute the great ice disappearing act unfolding before our eyes.
Posted by: Daniel Bailey | September 08, 2011 at 22:37
"Skål" to that Daniel, though I see I must pay Kalamazoo, Michigan a visit to come across that ale, best served Ice-fresh I assume!?
I really can't remember if I landed below or above the 4 mill km2 in the poll.
Are we anonymous in the Poll, Neven?!
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | September 08, 2011 at 23:22
I've voted between 4 and 4.5 in the polls, and it looks good. I also think 4.3 will be the low this year. Very close, but not quite there.
I do think a melt to below 4 million is coming soon. By that I mean 2012 or 2013.
Posted by: Rich and Mike Island | September 08, 2011 at 23:36
The largest losses this late in the year occurred in 2005; 340k from 9/7 to 9/22. It would take almost all of that loss this year to break 2007.
Posted by: Kevin O'Neill | September 08, 2011 at 23:52
More or less. I can see where voters come from.
On poll number 2 someone from the region of Oslo voted 4-4.5 million km2. It's the same on poll number 3.
There's a high probability you will be allowed to drink an Oberon as well.
Skål! *raises glass filled with tap water*
Posted by: Neven | September 09, 2011 at 00:05
@ Christoffer
Oberon is served (bottled and on tap) throughout Michigan (but especially here in the Upper Peninsula). I'm becoming ever more fond of our local brew pub, Blackrocks, with fine fresh selections like this week's on tap:
Just the stuff to take one's mind off the melty slush at The Top Of The World!
Posted by: Daniel Bailey | September 09, 2011 at 00:05
I would also have preferred to see a finer graduation of the poll in the second and third iterations: once we saw more than 50% voting for the 4.0 to 4.5 M interval, I'd insert new categories in 0.1 M increments within that range.
I'm on record here at Nevin's joint projecting the 2011 IJIS min at 4.4 M (just picked the expected value from our best fitting curve this Spring). My spreadsheet currently projects the 2-Day minimum at 4.404 M, +/- 40 K.
Cheers,
Lodger
Posted by: Artful Dodger | September 09, 2011 at 07:05
Too much work, sorry! And I don't want a widget that forces people who want to vote for 3.4 million km2 to scroll down for two minutes. ;-)
Less is more and small is beautiful.
Posted by: Neven | September 09, 2011 at 07:34
Daniel, that's not the Michigan I lived in back over 40 years ago.
Then the few bars there were (in the SW corner) had Dutch doors.
Not the two piece Dutch doors, but a back door for members of the Dutch Reformed Church to sneak in and out....
Posted by: Bob Wallace | September 09, 2011 at 07:49
Neven, you would only need to add 4 lines: 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.4
As it is the poll is too coarse to be useful. Sorry.
Posted by: Artful Dodger | September 09, 2011 at 08:13
Go vote at WUWT!
Posted by: Neven | September 09, 2011 at 08:15
It looks like the loss of sleep and suspense of the 2011 melting season finale is starting to take it's toll.
:-)
Lodger, you think there is really use for a fine grained poll when the error bars of most guesses are several times larger then your suggested poll options?
Posted by: cynicus | September 09, 2011 at 10:05
I was just kidding, BTW. :-)
Posted by: Neven | September 09, 2011 at 12:48
Are there awards for the closest prediction?
Is there a category for novices with absolutely no expertise?
if so i still might have a shot with my 4.6 guess in early July.
Posted by: Tony Duncan | September 09, 2011 at 18:26
An adequate Award would be to visit Neven's Arctic Spa & Wellnescenter, located somewhere in Slovenia, drinks being served by small tamed Knut-bears, which have more or less accepted the futuristic collapse of their former "Home", up north!
Would be some baluba:0)!
Oberon might be able to be found in a well equipped Beer-shop in Oslo...
Bob Wallace: Not only the Arctic has changed in 40 years; the same have taken place in Norway, much "thanks" to the oil, discovered in 1966. Until then Norway was a land of missionairies and whalers! (An outstanding combination BTW!!)
Posted by: Christoffer Ladstein | September 09, 2011 at 19:28